D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[Baroclinic Zone]

LMFAO... god you guys are bad... one run of the 'horrible' GFS everyone always discounts... gimme a break and step back from the computer

I have no problem with the GFS as it's shown.

[ChrisM]

so what happens if the ECM shows a blizzard at 0z? Does everyone hop back on?

[DomNH]

LMFAO... god you guys are bad... one run of the 'horrible' GFS everyone always discounts... gimme a break and step back from the computer

Good call. I'll save the real venting for 12z tomorrow. Goodnight everybody.

[40/70 Benchmark]

LMFAO... god you guys are bad... one run of the 'horrible' GFS everyone always discounts... gimme a break and step back from the computer

You conveniently omit the fact that it's now nearly a spitting image of the EURO's depiction over about 3-4 successive runs.

I'd give it until 12z tmw, but hopes took a hit tonight.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I do think that the 00z Euro will tick just a bit closer to the coast based off what the 12z Euro Ens. showed.

[ORH_wxman]

so what happens if the ECM shows a blizzard at 0z? Does everyone hop back on?

It would be pretty ideal for suicidal weenies to hop on the bus if it did that....Euro showing a hit at 108h and the GFS too far SE. About perfect.

[nzucker]

The PV "reaching down" is not trying to amplify or phase with it.. it's shredding it apart.. a PV phase would have the vorticity rotating in from behind not sitting NNE of where we want the storm to go and knocking down heights along the coast.

Can you come online?

I was hoping that western part of the PV would separate and come down the backside of the trough, pulling it closer to the coast at 500mb closes. I can't really say I understand this storm though other than that I will bang my head against the wall if ECM is right again and I got excited about the GFS.

The East just turns into an icebox after the event, again. Brutal cold this winter and persistent too. -12C 850s for NYC with -10C all the way down to NC/VA border.

[SouthCoastMA]

I wish the Euro started at 10:30pm and the GFS at 1:30AM.. That way I could just go to bed earlier knowing that the piece of crap GFS is always 2 steps behind the EURO anyway. The collective amount of sleep saved on this board would be enormous.

[skierinvermont]

I thought your worries of flipping to rain lasted too long. The longer wave pattern would have to have a mega phase to change you over....if we assume the Euro was being correct with the larger scale features.

I've been more worried about a whiff east vs a cutter west for about 36h now. I do still think there is plenty of room to get a nice hit though....the Euro is quite close despite some people hanging themselves already at over 100 hours out.

Longitude might be your friend in this.

Yeah a full PV phase is looking less and less likely considering the Euro hasn't shown anything like it in a couple days.. I'll simmer down about that if none of the models show anything like that after tonight. The 18z GFS probably did flip me to rain (or very close at least) .. it's hard to stay all snow here so I am always paranoid about that.

[weathafella]

To have bare frozen ground really blows. I was sure we'd have snow on the ground by the end of this week. F u c k a red duck.

[ORH_wxman]

You conveniently omit the fact that it's now nearly a spitting image of the EURO's depiction over about 3-4 successive runs.

I'd give it until 12z tmw, but hopes took a hit tonight.

Northern stream on the GFS is a mess compared to the Euro...the determinastic solution ends up very close, but its not the same type of miss...and that matters right now.

It might end up not mattering in hindsight, but given we are 108h lead time, it matters to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do think that the 00z Euro will tick just a bit closer to the coast based off what the 12z Euro Ens. showed.

I agree.....what we may very well end up with is a warning criteria event for a portion or all of CC and an ADV event for the rest of E MA.

[Logan11]

Well this is normal for the GFS around this point in the game....even it is was going to be a hit the GFS would lose it around now only to bring it back around Friday.

The problem is the ECM also is a whiff ...but hey watch it be a hit at 0Z LOL

Yeah for the last 2 days it seems like the big threat here was a whiff rather than a cutter which was going to take a lot of work to do. It seems that fear is coming to fruition but the pattern is still quite unstable and close to something substantial still.

[weathafella]

Nogaps did not shift east. Seems about the same as 12Z.

[ChrisM]

It would be pretty ideal for suicidal weenies to hop on the bus if it did that....Euro showing a hit at 108h and the GFS too far SE. About perfect.

did the euro ens encourage you in the least?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Northern stream on the GFS is a mess compared to the Euro...the determinastic solution ends up very close, but its not the same type of miss...and that matters right now.

It might end up not mattering in hindsight, but given we are 108h lead time, it matters to me.

Ok, that does matter and that is something that I cannot discern since I am H5 illiterate; however the fact remains that we need the EURO to come around by 12z tmw.

[Logan11]

I dunno where the NGP is.... .... but you can usually tell the GFS is nuts if the NGP is ever to its west.

Nogaps did not shift east. Seems about the same as 12Z.

[weatherwiz]

That would be pretty hysterical is the 0z euro came in with either a hit or came closer to the coast...I'm fully prepared for it not to do so though. In the meantime while we wait this is a perfect time to get the ropes and chair setup. I'll be watching the euro standing on my chair, that way if it sucks all I have to do is slip and that's the end.

[SouthCoastMA]

Nogaps did not shift east. Seems about the same as 12Z.

In comparison to the EURO/GFS (I can't believe I'm asking this question), is it closer to the coast or further OTS?

[earthlight]

It would be pretty ideal for suicidal weenies to hop on the bus if it did that....Euro showing a hit at 108h and the GFS too far SE. About perfect.

I keep letting my inner weenie come out, and remind myself that the 12/19 event last year had a similar model evolution (nearly identical actually) until the Euro came west on a 12z run on the 16th, or 17th, not sure which one.

To be fair though, this storm still occurs post 100 hours which does lend some credence to the idea that the changes are far from over.

[weathafella]

Even crazy Uncle UKIE will probably miss which is almost a sure sign of a Euro miss....

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nogaps did not shift east. Seems about the same as 12Z.

Link

[CT Rain]

As Will loves to say the Euro is lethal in the day 4 range. The 00z/12z runs tonight and tomorrow will be key. A sizable shift west in either run will grab my attention. Status quo or east and I'll check out.

[TalcottWx]

You conveniently omit the fact that it's now nearly a spitting image of the EURO's depiction over about 3-4 successive runs.

I'd give it until 12z tmw, but hopes took a hit tonight.

It's still 100+ hr's out. The EURO isn't even hammered down itself. You got to give it till 0z tomorrow night. I just can't stand the amount of negativity sometimes I wonder if people take more solace in saying "I told you the event wouldn't work out! I'm so miserable, going to go jump off a cliff now even though op's and ensembles foreign and domestic have showed a major hit for New England most recently as today", then an actual KU. It's all well and good when we have a consensus to discount a storm but when we are far from hammered down its a big weenie move to give up this early. It's December 14th, so what its a slow start. This is like the tropical season when everyone gave up in June.

[ORH_wxman]

That Ukie at 72 looks pretty bad but its so early in the run, I couldn't say if it would miss us or not.

[weathafella]

Link

[earthlight]

That Ukie at 72 looks pretty bad but its so early in the run, I couldn't say if it would miss us or not.

Regardless of the outcome that's a pretty strong signal that the big bomb solutions at this latitude are losing likelihood right now, although still with a boatload of time. We have seen several times last winter where 00z and 12z runs were completely different thanks to data ingestion and we never really got a handle until inside 72 hrs. Wonder if that is the case again this year.

[Logan11]

So far in this below normal eastern trough period (later Nov -> now) we have two prevailing storm tracks ...cutters through the lakes and out to sea phasers that retro toward NS/ME. Now the gfs moves this one closer to that latter category. But maybe things can still break better.

Even crazy Uncle UKIE will probably miss which is almost a sure sign of a Euro miss....

[Baroclinic Zone]

Link please, not image.

[weathafella]

Link please, not image.

Sorry...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2010121500∏=prpτ=120&set=Core