Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its good to be a Florida Gator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This storm is going to have quite a longitude gradient....the way this whole pattern is set up, its wants to take a wider right turn and then try to hook left at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 May have to bump my thread about snowless Decembers My call for a cold, but unsnowy December is looking good at the moment....but I didn't expect a colder December of 2006 TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It doesn't look better at H5.. there is a strong lobe of PV holding just east of Maine at 84 hours knocking down heights in the east and creating fast flow out to sea while the system is trying to phase It's definitely worse than 18z but it certainly isn't the worst setup I've seen! It is an OK looking setup... really close to getting a nice phase if that PV moves west of weakens quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 t Like I said about the EURO locking into a soloution like a pitbull int his range.....we saw it even a bit earlier with that cutter.... I knew it was over at the gtg.....folks kept telling me I was nuts. I think it's over, but I'll wait for the EURO to hold the course, which it will. Not even a dusting here on the Euro (or 00z GFS for that matter). When was the last time Nashua, NH was in serious jeopardy of not seeing a dusting of snow before Christmas? This is unreal. Hopefully we have a D4 12z miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't think we should give up quite yet...Maybe wait until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This storm is going to have quite a longitude gradient....the way this whole pattern is set up, its wants to take a wider right turn and then try to hook left at the last second. Kevin will not be happy to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty sure the problem was what I said.. it hold the PV steady east of Maine for too long... the 18z rotated it back to the west for a partial PV phase.. the 12z shredded weakened the PV enough for it to amplify anyways. We got neither this run. It misses by so little....I was sure it would do it up and so did most mets on the bb. The GFS went in one direction but then held. We need the Euro to help us. GFS 50 miles west is a huge hit for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 My call for a cold, but unsnowy December is looking good at the moment....but I didn't expect a colder December of 2006 TBH. my worst nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 3 runs show a mega storm 1 run shows OTS = suicide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 3 runs show a mega storm 1 run shows OTS = suicide? Yeah but it's too bad the most important model is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 t Like I said about the EURO locking into a soloution like a pitbull int his range.....we saw it even a bit earlier with that cutter.... I knew it was over at the gtg.....folks kept telling me I was nuts. I think it's over, but I'll wait for the EURO to hold the course, which it will. I know I said I'd wait until 12z Thursday before giving up or becoming concerned but I'm going to retract that statement if the 0z euro is a similar solution to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This storm is going to have quite a longitude gradient....the way this whole pattern is set up, its wants to take a wider right turn and then try to hook left at the last second. My ultimate fetish potential, but since it's this year, the cut-off will be Portsmouth, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's definitely worse than 18z but it certainly isn't the worst setup I've seen! It is an OK looking setup... really close to getting a nice phase if that PV moves west of weakens quite a bit. Yeah actually I sort of like this.. I would rather the PV trend east and weak and get the southern stream to amplify up the coast, VS a PV phase which could flip me to rain This is still really close.. a slightly stronger southern s/w or weaker/more east PV would let it amplify enough to effect the coast, like the 12z gfs This is a step away from the 12z euro though I think, while the 18z was a step towards it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It doesn't look better at H5.. there is a strong lobe of PV holding just east of Maine at 84 hours knocking down heights in the east and creating fast flow out to sea while the system is trying to phase we need the PV to weaken and move east or to retrograde west and let this thing turn up the coast. We get the in between screw job this run Here's what I saw...the southern stream shortwave looks stronger at 0z with a finger of vorticity from the PV reaching down to try to amplify the system on the 0z...18z looked like less vorticity with the shortwave and not as much action from the PV initially, although it changed later in the run. 0z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 132h 48h precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well....this waste of 2 weeks of precious time may hasten my move again to a warmer place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not even a dusting here on the Euro (or 00z GFS for that matter). When was the last time Nashua, NH was in serious jeopardy of not seeing a dusting of snow before Christmas? This is unreal. Hopefully we have a D4 12z miracle. Did you have anything in '06? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 May have to bump my thread about snowless Decembers At least BDL has 0.3'' for the month so it won't go down as the least snowiest December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 132h 48h precip. Looks just like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did you have anything in '06? I really don't remember. I thought I may have had something at some point before Christmas that year? The only thing I remember about '06 was 70F in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah actually I sort of like this.. I would rather the PV trend east and weak and get the southern stream to amplify up the coast, VS a PV phase which could flip me to rain I thought your worries of flipping to rain lasted too long. The longer wave pattern would have to have a mega phase to change you over....if we assume the Euro was being correct with the larger scale features. I've been more worried about a whiff east vs a cutter west for about 36h now. I do still think there is plenty of room to get a nice hit though....the Euro is quite close despite some people hanging themselves already at over 100 hours out. Longitude might be your friend in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maine should recover nicely from the rain and warm temperatures of the past couple days. Backing in storm tonight and more snow this weekend. I'm jealous. Again...haven't seen over 2" of snow at one time since MLK Day January 2010. Quickly approaching ONE YEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Would anyone want to drive with me to Northern Maine if this plays out as the GFS shows? Looks like a hammering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here's what I saw...the southern stream shortwave looks stronger at 0z with a finger of vorticity from the PV reaching down to try to amplify the system on the 0z...18z looked like less vorticity with the shortwave and not as much action from the PV initially, although it changed later in the run. The PV "reaching down" is not trying to amplify or phase with it.. it's shredding it apart.. a PV phase would have the vorticity rotating in from behind not sitting NNE of where we want the storm to go and knocking down heights along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I thought your worries of flipping to rain lasted too long. The longer wave pattern would have to have a mega phase to change you over....if we assume the Euro was being correct with the larger scale features. I've been more worried about a whiff east vs a cutter west for about 36h now. I do still think there is plenty of room to get a nice hit though....the Euro is quite close despite some people hanging themselves already at over 100 hours out. Longitude might be your friend in this. Hopefully mine too. 12/26/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Longitude might be your friend in this. 6" in Wilmington and a Trace in Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LMFAO... god you guys are bad... one run of the 'horrible' GFS everyone always discounts... gimme a break and step back from the computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I thought your worries of flipping to rain lasted too long. The longer wave pattern would have to have a mega phase to change you over....if we assume the Euro was being correct with the larger scale features. I've been more worried about a whiff east vs a cutter west for about 36h now. I do still think there is plenty of room to get a nice hit though....the Euro is quite close despite some people hanging themselves already at over 100 hours out. Longitude might be your friend in this. Yeah for the last 2 days it seems like the big threat here was a whiff rather than a cutter which was going to take a lot of work to do. It seems that fear is coming to fruition but the pattern is still quite unstable and close to something substantial still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 6" in Wilmington and a Trace in Tolland? 18" in Wilmington and 2" in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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