ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well it looks nothing like the NAM by 72h. Its looks closer to the 18z GFS...it should be pretty amplified...the PV is lifting northeast pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Actually looks a bit weaker with the PV (than the 12z run) and doesn't look closed off either at 66 HR...similar orientation to the northern stream s/w though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 looks like it may still be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i wouldnt be surprised if this moved even a little west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I agree... if the 00z and 12z Euro whiff I'm real concerned. Yeah if tomorrow's Euro (12Z) whiffs we start entering the danger period as in think .....not much snow if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well it looks nothing like the NAM by 72h. Its looks closer to the 18z GFS...it should be pretty amplified...the PV is lifting northeast pretty quickly. This is a GREAT sign to see right now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Splitting the vortex (north). It's going to produce. I'm not so sure.. on the 18z it managed to rotate much of that eastern lobe back around to the west.. doesn't look like it will do that this run. It's holding pretty solid east of Maine through 78. That seems to be knocking heights down in the east a bit more. Hard to tell.. maybe it rotates it in real fast at the end or slide it east and amplify the southern stream northwards anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well it looks nothing like the NAM by 72h. Its looks closer to the 18z GFS...it should be pretty amplified...the PV is lifting northeast pretty quickly. 90 hours says it's going to be a pretty major system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm not so sure.. on the 18z it managed to rotate much of that eastern lobe back around to the west.. doesn't look like it will do that this run. It's holding pretty solid east of Maine through 78. That seems to be knocking heights down in the east a bit more Still looks like the western part of the PV will get involved and feed more energy into the trough. This run looks like it's heading towards a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 90 hours says it's going to be a pretty major system. Yeah...PV out of the way, trough starting to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm not so sure.. on the 18z it managed to rotate much of that eastern lobe back around to the west.. doesn't look like it will do that this run. It's holding pretty solid east of Maine through 78. That seems to be knocking heights down in the east a bit more. Hard to tell.. maybe it rotates it in real fast at the end Already partial phase at 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well it still looks like it keeps the PV intact at 84 HR (pretty different look from 12z) but it continues to move it NE and it continues to be a tad slower with the northern stream energy...not sure if that's what we want to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL...despite a favorable 500 mb chart, GFS will miss or graze eastern areas. Does this model ever have run to run consistency outside of 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This run is clearly flatter through 96 hours with the southern stream...this should result in an E result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is escaping east pretty quickly...the northern stream is outrunning the 18z solution a bit...it better turn quick after 102h. It could still hit eastern NE pretty good if it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hmmmm...looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL...despite a favorable 500 mb chart, GFS will miss or graze eastern areas. Does this model ever have run to run consistency outside of 6 hours? Yeah looks decent at 500mb but it is only going to be a graze unless it gets yanked back NW. The PV doesn't retrograde enough and even though the southern stream is sharpening the flow is still too flat over NE to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL that energy over Alberta end up even further SE this run. Huge discontinuity between the GFS and ... every other model, continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 May have to bump my thread about snowless Decembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well that was fun. what's next? sorry, had to let out some steam built up from cramming for finals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm not so sure.. on the 18z it managed to rotate much of that eastern lobe back around to the west.. doesn't look like it will do that this run. It's holding pretty solid east of Maine through 78. That seems to be knocking heights down in the east a bit more. Hard to tell.. maybe it rotates it in real fast at the end or slide it east and amplify the southern stream northwards anyways 90 hours says it's going to be a pretty major system. Still looks like the western part of the PV will get involved and feed more energy into the trough. This run looks like it's heading towards a monster. Already partial phase at 99 Pretty sure the problem was what I said.. it hold the PV steady east of Maine for too long... the 18z rotated it back to the west for a partial PV phase.. the 12z shredded weakened the PV enough for it to amplify anyways. We got neither this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Tip 'em high, tip 'em low...tighten the rope, here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Still looks like the western part of the PV will get involved and feed more energy into the trough. This run looks like it's heading towards a monster. Nope was wrong here...looked a bit better at 5H but no dice. However, it has the 12/19/09 look...whenever the GFS shows a coastal just missing, it usually becomes a bigger threat inside 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Shocker.....EURO wins in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hmmmm...looks familiar Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nope was wrong here...looked a bit better at 5H but no dice. However, it has the 12/19/09 look...whenever the GFS shows a coastal just missing, it usually becomes a bigger threat inside 72 hrs. It doesn't look better at H5.. there is a strong lobe of PV holding just east of Maine at 84 hours knocking down heights in the east and creating fast flow out to sea while the system is trying to phase we need the PV to weaken and move east or to retrograde west and let this thing turn up the coast. We get the in between screw job this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 t Tip 'em high, tip 'em low...tighten the rope, here we go. Like I said about the EURO locking into a soloution like a pitbull int his range.....we saw it even a bit earlier with that cutter.... I knew it was over at the gtg.....folks kept telling me I was nuts. I think it's over, but I'll wait for the EURO to hold the course, which it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty sure the problem was what I said.. it hold the PV steady east of Maine for too long... the 18z rotated it back to the west for a partial PV phase.. the 12z shredded weakened the PV enough for it to amplify anyways. We got neither this run. Yup exactly right. Instead of the PV either falling apart or retrograding it keeps the flow too fat and prevents a phase and doesn't let the amplified southern stream s/w start ripping NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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