dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Absolutely, but I don't want people living and dying by the 84 hour NAM. Some may not realize how unstable it can be. god forbid, we have posters on here that match the nams instability...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wasn't that the ETA though? Yeah if I remember correctly the GFS had an egregiously OTS solution as close as 48-60 hours out. Yes but it sucked just as much or more at 84 hours then.. and right...GFS was horrid until very close in...a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dunno Will. Looping suggests that it may be a later and slower solution but that PV is finally on the move. As you say...doesn't matter given the model and time frame. Its possible it would produce a phase and we get hit anyway, a lot of quirky things can change the height pattern very quickly when you get PV or partial PV phases, but I was just stating I didn't think it looked so hot. But you are right that it really doesn't matter...the NAM can really tend to amplify its errors after 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Jules and I had a 5miler earlier, just went out to grab a bunch of wood, its orgasmic tonight. Deep Canadian love that flows deep into the lungs, snow coming this weekend, what a special time of year no matter what your faith or spirituality. No reason the pv needs to phase, give me a little vm screaming down the back side of the trough, that will do......... 8-14 region wide Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Last year that PV would never EVER budge and even when it was a bit east it would send spokes west to like NB just to crush all hopes. I'm still thinking this is a different year.... I dunno Will. Looping suggests that it may be a later and slower solution but that PV is finally on the move. As you say...doesn't matter given the model and time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its possible it would produce a phase and we get hit anyway, a lot of quirky things can change the height pattern very quickly when you get PV or partial PV phases, but I was just stating I didn't think it looked so hot. But you are right that it really doesn't matter...the NAM can really tend to amplify its errors after 48h. Sometimes 24 hrs....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes but it sucked just as much or more at 84 hours then.. and right...GFS was horrid until very close in...a joke. The GFS vomited all over itself so bad in that storm. 24 hours out it still didn't have BOS in warning criteria snow. That and March 2001 were two of the worst performances by the GFS I've ever seen that close in....with last Feb 10 not too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that's one way of putting it yeah i'm just saying...we need to get things right to our north. the little rinky dink s/w coming along in the southern stream wouldn't stand a chance against the kind of flow the NAM was showing at the end of its run. that was jan/feb 2010 all over again on that run. the 12z euro, thankfully, wasn't quite so awful with that feature...it at least was a bit more SW/NE with it and had a window for the left hand turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GFS vomited all over itself so bad in that storm. 24 hours out it still didn't have BOS in warning criteria snow. That and March 2001 were two of the worst performances by the GFS I've ever seen that close in....with last Feb 10 not too far behind. I remember looping and comparing the 12z ETA back then to previous runs and excitement filled the air. I do wish we had more of an antecedent polar airmass in place, but beggars can't be choosers. It's not a changeover I'm worried about, but a nice high to the north always guarantees good frontogenesis and banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sometimes 24 hrs....lol. Sometimes 24hrs is even generous. It was either the 18z or 00z run the other day during the torch that was still trying to hammer me with that 3-5" QPF superband at 3hrs out even though it had already failed by the time the images started being generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's funny..spoke to two people regarding the NAM. One said it was awful, the other said it was just slower and going to phase in the plains s/w and tug it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's funny..spoke to two people regarding the NAM. One said it was awful, the other said it was just slower and going to phase in the plains s/w and tug it north. I don't think it looks good because of the PV north of NNE...that usually eliminates the meridional potential in phasing so we'd probably see this go pretty far east before it can right itself and turn left. Its possible I could be wrong it would all happen really quickly and go nuts in time to hammer the coast...but I'd lean toward the person who said it looked awful. You can always play the extrapolation game with it...but it looks notably worse than the 18z run that (if you believe the DGEX to be a decent approximation for post-84) had a sharp cutoff in precip near/just west of NYC...so I'd figured we'd see that cutoff come a decent amount east....how much? I couldn't even begin to guess as I'm already guessing on the direction of the shift itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z gfs has started heres to a good night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z gfs has started heres to a good night!! Lets do this! I want snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I always had issues with data which does not include decadal signals. Me too. That is cool that Crawford responded to Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 When is the last time the GFS has scored a coup over the Euro on a NE snowstorm 5 days out? Just sayin'... until the Euro shows a solid hit, nothing to see here. And right now, its a grazing for ENE at best. Low expectations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow. Tune out for a month or two and the entire Eastern board migrates to a new URL! Glad to catch up before winter kicks in - it's nice to finally have some potential on the horizon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Lol, I don't think anyone particularly cares what it shows...it's better than harassing Carl Crawford on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 welcome back! Wow. Tune out for a month or two and the entire Eastern board migrates to a new URL! Glad to catch up before winter kicks in - it's nice to finally have some potential on the horizon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 welcome back! Thanks, ineedsnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 PV is stronger in the modeling tonight. Certainly this run will have the low east of 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 PV is stronger in the modeling tonight. Certainly this run will have the low east of 18Z. We have to run into a break sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's definitely much stronger with the PV . A little slower with ejecting the s/w out of Canada into the States though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's definitely much stronger with the PV . A little slower with ejecting the s/w out of Canada into the States though. Similar to NAM evolution. We'll see if the theory of delayed but not denied or quashed periods is more valid at least in the evolution of this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Similar to NAM evolution. We'll see if the theory of delayed but not denied or quashed periods is more valid at least in the evolution of this GFS run. I think we may getting into the timeframe where the gfs loses the storm for a couple of runs only to come back to it later....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Splitting the vortex (north). It's going to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think we may getting into the timeframe where the gfs loses the storm for a couple of runs only to come back to it later....... I thought that timeframe was yesterday's 12z run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think we may getting into the timeframe where the gfs loses the storm for a couple of runs only to come back to it later....... What we are getting into is deep sh** if the EURO doesn't trend favorably by 12z tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Splitting the vortex (north). It's going to produce. yeah looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What we are getting into is deep sh** if the EURO doesn't trend favorably by 12z tmw. I agree... if the 00z and 12z Euro whiff I'm real concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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