Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I have a big enough sample size for you to cull from..... Still bragging after all these years, size isn't everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Can we have a rule about extrapolating what the NAM will do, post 84 hrs? Plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 OT, I predict cweat (aka) Scott makes an appearence in less than 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Strongly agree here...It has been weak to non-existent for most of the winter thus far...I was hoping that it would take off and head deep into 6 and 7 like one of the statistical models had it doing a few days ago...but...no such luck...gotta love these moderate LA NINAs I think the MJO is worthwhile to use in the absence of other strong signals. With a ripping -NAO and -AO... I'm not really going to look too much at the IO/W Pac for forcing when for us the big driver is just north or northeast of us. Also as is typical of a strong Nina we're dealing with a low amplitude MJO wave so forcing should be less than ripping a monster MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well not extrapolating, but at 78h, the NAM is certainly much more Euro-esque with the northern stream....you can see it very robust north of NNE and then extending well SW through the lakes. Southern stream looks nicer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BTW, euro ensemble probs were decent for eastern mass. Way better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BTW, euro ensemble probs were decent for eastern mass. Way better than 00z. I'm not surprised, the isobars you can see were bulging back toward E NE on the mean slp field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Energy over CO is phasing into the s/w on the NAM....good stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BTW, euro ensemble probs were decent for eastern mass. Way better than 00z. As I said, this storms coming, for somebody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well by 84 things are looking better as the PV moves to the East and the sw over Texas strengthens somewhat Point is this is out of the NAM's range GFS up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I like how "extrapolating the NAM" has become so frowned upon. It's like communism now. Will's last post has to have a disclaimer so that he's not black listed. There can still be constructive discussion about the NAM's prog without weenieing out over IMBY results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 As I said, this storms coming, for somebody... I'll take it if no one else wants it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM is actually ok. Slower and allows for a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I like how "extrapolating the NAM" has become so frowned upon. It's like communism now. Will's last post has to have a disclaimer so that he's not black listed. There can still be constructive discussion about the NAM's prog without weenieing out over IMBY results. Absolutely, but I don't want people living and dying by the 84 hour NAM. Some may not realize how unstable it can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Absolutely, but I don't want people living and dying by the 84 hour NAM. Some may not realize how unstable it can be. Uninformed lurkers tipping chairs over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I like how "extrapolating the NAM" has become so frowned upon. It's like communism now. Will's last post has to have a disclaimer so that he's not black listed. There can still be constructive discussion about the NAM's prog without weenieing out over IMBY results. Im going to say it even though nobody wants to hear it....its looks pretty badt at 84h....almost exactly like the 12z Euro at 96h except the PV is worse off north of NE...at 96h it was actually rotating down W and SW and trying to phase in...not happening on the NAM. This would almost certainly result in a wide right solution.....BUT.... It is the NAM at 84h...so thankfully, it doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Energy over CO is phasing into the s/w on the NAM....good stuff.. That SW s/w is a bit slower this run and doesn't outrun the Rockies energy. It doesn't look horrible, but I've grown to hate the NAM past 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i like doing it because it gives me something to do while we wait for the gfs to come out even if the nam does suck! Absolutely, but I don't want people living and dying by the 84 hour NAM. Some may not realize how unstable it can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 No No No No!!! Ahhhhh.... Oh, wait, it's the NAM outside of 6 hours... All good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Absolutely, but I don't want people living and dying by the 84 hour NAM. Some may not realize how unstable it can be. The classic 84 HR NAM coup was 84 hours ahead of the 1/22/05 blizzard. GFS till the last minute was doody and even Euro began to waffle. I remember dropping my wife and daughter off at PVD...they were heading to ORD. I stayed home ...was not going to miss it...was feeling the storm. I load up 12Z NAM and it's a solid hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Im going to say it even though nobody wants to hear it....its looks pretty badt at 84h....almost exactly like the 12z Euro at 96h except the PV is worse off north of NE...at 96h it was actually rotating down W and SW and trying to phase in...not happening on the NAM. This would almost certainly result in a wide right solution.....BUT.... It is the NAM at 84h...so thankfully, it doesn't really matter. ^^this^^ we can inject HGH into the southern stream...it's not going to make a world of difference if we have that giant gyre spinning near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Absolutely, but I don't want people living and dying by the 84 hour NAM. Some may not realize how unstable it can be. Yeah past 60 hours it flip around a lot. But even by the middle of this run, it's not looking too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Bitter night tonight. Heading out for a 45 minute dog walk. Winter makes this obligatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 You could always watch Larry King's final three shows. i like doing it because it gives me something to do while we wait for the gfs to come out even if the nam does suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow 45 minutes... MY sisters dogs take care of their business in about two minutes I find in sub 20F weather. LOL Bitter night tonight. Heading out for a 45 minute dog walk. Winter makes this obligatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The classic 84 HR NAM coup was 84 hours ahead of the 1/22/05 blizzard. GFS till the last minute was doody and even Euro began to waffle. I remember dropping my wife and daughter off at PVD...they were heading to ORD. I stayed home ...was not going to miss it...was feeling the storm. I load up 12Z NAM and it's a solid hit for us. Wasn't that the ETA though? Yeah if I remember correctly the GFS had an egregiously OTS solution as close as 48-60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Im going to say it even though nobody wants to hear it....its looks pretty badt at 84h....almost exactly like the 12z Euro at 96h except the PV is worse off north of NE...at 96h it was actually rotating down W and SW and trying to phase in...not happening on the NAM. This would almost certainly result in a wide right solution.....BUT.... It is the NAM at 84h...so thankfully, it doesn't really matter. I dunno Will. Looping suggests that it may be a later and slower solution but that PV is finally on the move. As you say...doesn't matter given the model and time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 21z SREF for comparison purposes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow 45 minutes... MY sisters dogs take care of their business in about two minutes I find in sub 20F weather. LOL Oh yeah business will be done quickly but we like to jaunt together on a cold night. Goldens love the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ^^this^^ we can inject HGH into the southern stream...it's not going to make a world of difference if we have that giant gyre spinning near us. that's one way of putting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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