weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 HE RESPONDED!!! What did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Watching all these model runs and getting caught up here on post i just realized after looking at my point and click we are looking at 2-4" tonight into tomorow with the retro low over the maritimes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Jesus Wiz, you're going to creep him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wasn't here but my understanding is not one flake for my area. yeah, usually doesn't happen when there is a 1040mb high directly over your house, lol....or would have been over your house had you been living here back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What did he say? He said "good luck with that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HE RESPONDED!!! I LOVE CARL CRAWFORD <3 <3 <3 <3 CT BLIZZ IS MY HERO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Step aside, Rev ... Wiz has a new sugar daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I've talked to our main guy about the pattern, and even he stated the questions about the Nina's of yesterday and the nao. I've also talked to Joe D'Aleo as well. Joe was laughed at some years ago for bringing up solar, and now look at what's happening. Some say he is biased, but the guy brings a lot to the table. Joe D is one of those out of the box thinkers who I admire. Usually those types and I include myself get scorned and ridiculed until the outlandish becomes norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think that ultimately, NE RI, interior SE MA, and downeast Maine get warning criteria snow, with zilch west of ORH. I don't know...the ECM is pretty close to a full PV phase and the GFS has a significant lobe of the PV involved. Skier and I were talking on the phone, and he was saying that he was worried about rain/mix at his house in Southeast CT; I tend to agree that we could see a significant westward adjustment if we have a monster phase with the PV, which would make this storm a big hit for Pete and me but not as much in BOS/ORH where there'd be a huge front end dump but then rain/sleet. The 18z GFS does appear to change BOS to rain for a bit as 850s look slightly above freezing despite fairly northerly surface flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I talked with Gibbs for awhile today. He said there is not 1 met than explain what is happening this month in regards to the extreme blocking and -AO. He said noone can offer a legit explanation as to why. He is baffled. Said he doesn't buy just compositng the 1950's. It's really bothering him how noone can offer a good explanation Well some also ripped the 80's and 90's too. This blocking has been unprecedented...I agree. However, we've have -nao in Nina's before. To say that mdt-strong Ninas must mean +nao are false. We just don't know yet. It will be interesting to see of this continues, or do we switch to a more + regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well some also ripped the 80's and 90's too. This blocking has been unprecedented...I agree. However, we've have -nao in Nina's before. To say that mdt-strong Ninas must mean +nao are false. We just don't know yet. It will be interesting to see of this continues, or do we switch to a more + regime. Well its led him to change some things around in his winter forecast. I asked if maybe it was volcanic ash and he said that would argue for a + AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't think he much likes snow. He better like it now What did he say? See next quoted reply by Yoda. He said "good luck with that" What Yoda said lol. You saw the tweet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't know...the ECM is pretty close to a full PV phase and the GFS has a significant lobe of the PV involved. Skier and I were talking on the phone, and he was saying that he was worried about rain/mix at his house in Southeast CT; I tend to agree that we could see a significant westward adjustment if we have a monster phase with the PV, which would make this storm a big hit for Pete and me but not as much in BOS/ORH where there'd be a huge front end dump but then rain/sleet. The 18z GFS does appear to change BOS to rain for a bit as 850s look slightly above freezing despite fairly northerly surface flow. You'll need a pretty large adjustment westward on the phase if you get a scenario where interior SNE changes to rain. The Ukie basically split and dropped the PV into the southern stream and still didn't produce that much qpf for your area....while the low tracked from the BM NNW into S ME and dumped like 2 feet of snow on BOS even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 He better like it now See next quoted reply by Yoda. What Yoda said lol. You saw the tweet? I searched for it and found the reply to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well its led him to change some things around in his winter forecast. I asked if maybe it was volcanic ash and he said that would argue for a + AO. That is latitude dependent imo. We want more high latitude volcanoes going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't know...the ECM is pretty close to a full PV phase and the GFS has a significant lobe of the PV involved. Skier and I were talking on the phone, and he was saying that he was worried about rain/mix at his house in Southeast CT; I tend to agree that we could see a significant westward adjustment if we have a monster phase with the PV, which would make this storm a big hit for Pete and me but not as much in BOS/ORH where there'd be a huge front end dump but then rain/sleet. The 18z GFS does appear to change BOS to rain for a bit as 850s look slightly above freezing despite fairly northerly surface flow. well the authorities have spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't know...the ECM is pretty close to a full PV phase and the GFS has a significant lobe of the PV involved. Skier and I were talking on the phone, and he was saying that he was worried about rain/mix at his house in Southeast CT; I tend to agree that we could see a significant westward adjustment if we have a monster phase with the PV, which would make this storm a big hit for Pete and me but not as much in BOS/ORH where there'd be a huge front end dump but then rain/sleet. The 18z GFS does appear to change BOS to rain for a bit as 850s look slightly above freezing despite fairly northerly surface flow. I agree with all these points. Hence my 12/30/00 fears despite the reassurances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well its led him to change some things around in his winter forecast. I asked if maybe it was volcanic ash and he said that would argue for a + AO. what about stratospheric ozone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HE RESPONDED!!! Ask him if he likes Miley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The majority of the 21z SREF members do seem to look quite similar to the NAM/DGEX/GFS combo wrt to H5 and where they start to form the low down south...however...doesn't really mean jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here is a question I have....and I think it has some validity. All the MJO composites are from 1974 onward. So, what did the MJO composites look like during the -nao phase? One has to wonder if they would look different during the 50s and 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't know...the ECM is pretty close to a full PV phase and the GFS has a significant lobe of the PV involved. Skier and I were talking on the phone, and he was saying that he was worried about rain/mix at his house in Southeast CT; I tend to agree that we could see a significant westward adjustment if we have a monster phase with the PV, which would make this storm a big hit for Pete and me but not as much in BOS/ORH where there'd be a huge front end dump but then rain/sleet. The 18z GFS does appear to change BOS to rain for a bit as 850s look slightly above freezing despite fairly northerly surface flow. GFS clown maps show the marine intrusion but its thermal layers always run warm so NBD. This has much more of a chance of skirting east than cutting inside the BM but an overly quick phase would do that. Every things on the table , fair to say no one has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Joe D is one of those out of the box thinkers who I admire. Usually those types and I include myself get scorned and ridiculed until the outlandish becomes norm. While I agree in principal, one can't deviate from science on a hunch although in wx I supposed you can. I certainly can't and SHOULD NOT EVER in my world if I don't have reasonably sound science behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Heavy user count right now. Are models indicating a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here is a question I have....and I think it has some validity. All the MJO composites are from 1974 onward. So, what did the MJO composites look like during the -nao phase? One has to wonder if they would look different during the 50s and 60s. Is the MJO really much of a factor right now though or has it been as of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well the authorities have spoken. The Zuckertubesock finally makes a post that doesn't turn my stomach and you have to make fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 18Z GFS has some staying power. The proof will be in the details with each run interests will rise and fall. Three cheers for Winters arrival, finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 He said "good luck with that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Is the MJO really much of a factor right now though or has it been as of late? No, the Atlantic has basically said FU to the MJO. This also makes me wonder if we are humping the MJO progs too much. IOW, ENSO may be independent at times, to MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here is a question I have....and I think it has some validity. All the MJO composites are from 1974 onward. So, what did the MJO composites look like during the -nao phase? One has to wonder if they would look different during the 50s and 60s. I always had issues with data which does not include decadal signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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