ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'll tell you what folks. GFS has 12/31/00 written all over it including cp taint and significant rain as the predominant despite a favorable track. The lack of hp is haunting me. With that track, no chance BOS goes to rain...sfc low tracks so that the wind starts at like 040 and then goes more northerly from there. 12/30/00 tracked over SE MA. If we start getting a Canal Cutter, then you should be spooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 With that track, no chance BOS goes to rain...sfc low tracks so that the wind starts at like 040 and then goes more northerly from there. 12/30/00 tracked over SE MA. If we start getting a Canal Cutter, then you should be spooked. Thanks Will. That 12/30/00 event is among my bitterest pills and I'm scarred..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 All I"m saying is if it verified, I may be fooked. Jerry, you won't have anything to worry about in this with antecedent cold signal being deep and a pressure gradient strong enough to keep more N component undercutting what is probable to become a 850mb level ccb jet. Big highs are always good, but not always necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty impressive cold this month.. It took 12 full months but, safe to say ...the elephant is about to die at all 4 major sites in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If anyone were to see some rain or mixed precip from this I would think it would just be along the Cape and parts of the islands, and even then it may only be a brief mix or changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And oh yeah..Gibbs has changed his ideas for January I'm guessing Ryan will be next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'll tell you what folks. GFS has 12/31/00 written all over it including cp taint and significant rain as the predominant despite a favorable track. The lack of hp is haunting me. Well verbatim there is marine taint at the start, GFS clown maps show that but there also is a cold feed from a 1016 sandwiched in between the 50/50 and the PV. Just saying, this would have to bisect the Cape to rain you, now sleet is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 what about before or after 2:30? nope only at 2:30 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty impressive cold this month.. It took 12 full months but, safe to say ...the elephant is about to die at all 4 major sites in SNE Caribou FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Jerry, you won't have anything to worry about in this with antecedent cold signal being deep and a pressure gradient strong enough to keep more N component undercutting what is probable to become a 850mb level ccb jet. Big highs are always good, but not always necessary. PD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty impressive cold this month.. It took 12 full months but, safe to say ...the elephant is about to die at all 4 major sites in SNE Caribou FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If anyone were to see some rain or mixed precip from this I would think it would just be along the Cape and parts of the islands, and even then it may only be a brief mix or changeover. its time to be more worried about where precip falls than what kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I would think that any track in or around BM should be a red flag especailly with such strong a cyclone. I know several other variables come into play... BUT... the haba is still quite warm. A month from now I would feel safer. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 In 10 min, 21z srefs come out. Could they foreshadow the rest of the model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I would think that any track in or around BM should be a red flag especailly with such strong a cyclone. I know several other variables come into play... BUT... the haba is still quite warm. A month from now I would feel safer. JMO If this storm tracks over/near the BM, very few will have to worry about ptype as the airmass over us will be suitable just as long as you keep a 040/050 type wind. Only if it tracks directly over it and its hooking so violently NW that it tracks into SNE from there...but that type of solution is extreme and unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If this storm tracks over/near the BM, very few will have to worry about ptype as the airmass over us will be suitable just as long as you keep a 040/050 type wind. Only if it tracks directly over it and its hooking so violently NW that it tracks into SNE from there...but that type of solution is extreme and unlikely. That's the track I'm sure interior NNE ski areas are asking Santa to bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And oh yeah..Gibbs has changed his ideas for January I'm guessing Ryan will be next I've been fortunate to hear some of the guys interpretations of the patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 anyone want to analyze the 21Z SREF, .. tells me little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I've been fortunate to hear some of the guys interpretations of the patterns. Remember you heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Remember you heard it here first. Our Bandwagon is going to start getting crowded.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Will, Scott or Tip (or whoever else wants to chime in) With big coastal bombs what is the preferred location for the ULL to track to bring prodigious snows to the Ct River Valley (Htfd to Bratt) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That's the track I'm sure interior NNE ski areas are asking Santa to bring. No thanks on a retrograding track NWward into SNE. Maine and NH would probably just get flooded with maritime air. A regular old coastal is fine with me. The mtns can get a bit of synoptic and then more post-storm upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Pretty impressive cold this month.. It took 12 full months but, safe to say ...the elephant is about to die at all 4 major sites in SNE I know I should have went warmer than normal for December for extreme NNE...that's what they usually end up being in -NAO's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Remember you heard it here first. I've talked to our main guy about the pattern, and even he stated the questions about the Nina's of yesterday and the nao. I've also talked to Joe D'Aleo as well. Joe was laughed at some years ago for bringing up solar, and now look at what's happening. Some say he is biased, but the guy brings a lot to the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Our Bandwagon is going to start getting crowded.lol The bus is going to start to fill........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Carl Crawford just posted on twitter; "Just finished eating dinner, what's everyone up to tonight"? I replied saying tracking snowstorm potential for this weekend lol...maybe he'll respond back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I've been fortunate to hear some of the guys interpretations of the patterns. I talked with Gibbs for awhile today. He said there is not 1 met that can explain what is happening this month in regards to the extreme blocking and -AO. He said noone can offer a legit explanation as to why. He is baffled. Said he doesn't buy just compositing the 1950's. It's really bothering him how noone can offer a good explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HE RESPONDED!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 PD 1 I wasn't here but my understanding is not one flake for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HE RESPONDED!!! I don't think he much likes snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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