D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[powderfreak]

I think I'd rather be east right now than west...if someone held a gun to my head.

Kevs not gonna like that statement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I'd rather be east right now than west...if someone held a gun to my head.

I agree....getting cautiously optimistic for an ene special.

[Bostonseminole]

I'm staying up till midnight.. that is my limit..but I can be texted at 2:30 am if things look awesome

[ChrisM]

I agree....getting cautiously optimistic for an ene special.

yes, a special mix.

[weatherwiz]

Not quite enough southern stream -

How this works is a stronger southern stream system collapses the geopotential medium (weakens it) as it is translating underneath, and down it comes... What is intriguing in this is that the block repositioning farther north of all this noise would actually help that, because as it pushes west over top the PV, that wants to "push" that feature south - if a southern stream system is that, the PV would smartly arrive.

There's room to iron these interacting field out... For one, I am not certain the southern stream system is amply sampled, and may be stronger when it comes through the nascent western ridge. ALB AFD does make a good point about the rather dullard amplitude over western N/A, BUT, it is not really absolutely necessary when you have a southern stream system, with a PV that wants to come down, and a ridge trying to make that happen over top.

That said, this does have the vibe of a big gradient over western NE. Could see a UKMET/GFS/DGEX type blend here with the teleconnector layout pointing that way.

I am better than 50/50 in belief that the ECM will abruptly come back with this. The event is 120 hours - technically that was never in the ECM's wheel-house where it goes from okay to scary good.

Also, general comment RE the GFS. The model is not as bad as you may think, or as it has become popular to believe, since about last June, when they snuck an upgrade in there and it has been performing competitively - though slightly behind - the ECM/UKMET models - close enough in the verification scores to argue one should not ignore. So I disagree with this auto 'woe is GFS and me' -ism. It's not really supported, even if the GFS did not do so hot on the last event, which I am certain that is objectively true - it can be picked apart by the naysayers no doubt, subjectively. Anyway, what has me concerned here is that many many systems in history where phasing on the M/A took place did so with a ridge eruption around or N of Jame Bay, and a sudden realization of a quasi-polar vortex takes place from the MA to off-shore NE. Feb 1978 is just one example, but a very good one. I see some similarity in the sense that we do have ridging N repositioning/and or developing at the same time southern stream impulse times well with the western end of PV dynamics; very precarious, and if there is a better interaction of these fields ...heh, come on, do we really think the models are seeing this/that 120 hours out?

Thanks for the insight! Also regarding the southern stream energy I was talking to someone last night and they mentioned that it's really bizarre to see the energy undercutting the trough around the Baja/AZ/NM region...don't typically see something like that in a Nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm keepn' it up till midnight.. that is my limit..but I can be taken by force around 2:30 am if the dude looks awesome

[Bostonseminole]

specially if is you!

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think that ultimately, NE RI, interior SE MA, and downeast Maine get warning criteria snow, with zilch west of ORH.

You're not far off from my thinking right now.

[MaineJayhawk]

Heavy heavy clowning around right now.

[Bostonseminole]

so my kids keep asking me if snow is 180+ away, I told them to ask me tomorrow, .. I don't want to break their hearts again.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks for the insight! Also regarding the southern stream energy I was talking to someone last night and they mentioned that it's really bizarre to see the energy undercutting the trough around the Baja/AZ/NM region...don't typically see something like that in a Nina.

I have a hypothesis as to why that is... It has to do with relativity between the respective fields. I think in a neutral hemisphere the SST and thermal forcing from the Pac might be more effectual on the pattern, but during an era of severely depressed -AO I don't know if that is the case. The gist of it is that relative to -AO creating bigger gradients than normal, the current Nina almost acts like a warm signal against.

Just an idea.

[ORH_wxman]

so my kids keep asking me if snow is 180+ away, I told them to ask me tomorrow, .. I don't want to break their hearts again.

If we get it, its probably less than 120h away by now. The start of it anyway. The next couple of Euro runs are starting to get pretty important as we close in on 100 hours out. It really starts throwing bulls eyes inside of 96 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we get it, its probably less than 120h away by now. The start of it anyway. The next couple of Euro runs are starting to get pretty important as we close in on 100 hours out. It really starts throwing bulls eyes inside of 96 hours.

Yea, I said last night that 12z would concern me and if the EURO is still a "no" tmw (Wednesday) at 12z, then it's probably not happening.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm always leery of the Cape this time of year...so I wouldn't trade...but I might trade with someone on the north shore. But I think I'll be okay in the end where I am.

This isn't your typical Nina event....its almost acting like a Nino event with the southern portion of the split polar jet acting like the STJ and the monster blocking to our north. So there is no guarantee this just jumps NW like a SW flow event or a typical Miller B event.

Geezus you just made me laugh, Socks FTL

[ORH_wxman]

Yea, I said last night that 12z would concern me and if the EURO is still a "no" tmw (Wednesday) at 12z, then it's probably not happening.

Id be fairly surprised if it totally whiffed as to give nothing to ENE...as the longer wave pattern really wants to try and "slot" the benchmark, but we still need the details to work out and the Euro isn't exactly making it easy on us. We could end up with a solution where it tries to escape to the east but it hooks pretty sharply back to the left and hammers ENE.

[ski MRG]

Agreed, just spoke to my aunt and uncle from South Carolina, guess when they arrive at LGA, lol, SUnday 1pm............waiting until tomorrow but looks like I may tell them to head on up on Saturday instead so they are not stuck in Charlotte for 24hrs. My Uncle is a huge snow fan, and his every other year trip to yankee land is much anticipated, he is a HUGE lover of snow and cold..........I think this year might deliver although nothing like 1985, that was special.

If you're lucky you'll get stuck in traffic when you pick them up and won't have to endure watching the Steelers crush the now wingless Jets. Hope everybody gets a good thump over the weekend.

Late nights are things of my past. Hell, I typically don't even last for the NAM these days. I get up at 4:30 and check things leisurely over my morning joe.

Hopefully, what I see tomorrow morning will make me want me to stay up.

I crash early and often wake up in the wee hours, long enough to see if it's snowing and see what the chatter about the 00z models holds. Then I get up again a few hours later for our morning breakfast club. Sometimes i get so amped, or conversely, bummed, I have trouble falling back to sleep. It sucks being an addict.

[weatherwiz]

I have a hypothesis as to why that is... It has to do with relativity between the respective fields. I think in a neutral hemisphere the SST and thermal forcing from the Pac might be more effectual on the pattern, but during an era of severely depressed -AO I don't know if that is the case. The gist of it is that relative to -AO creating bigger gradients than normal, the current Nina almost acts like a warm signal against.

Just an idea.

That's an interesting hypothesis, would be interesting to go back to past Nina's with strong -AO's and see if anything similar occurred at all. The AO is just insanely negative right now and looks to remain so for the time being. I was thinking this as well...since usually in Nina's the northern stream pieces are usually more dominant considering how suppressed things are due to the incredible -AO/-NAO is it at all possible that we actually see the southern stream pieces being the dominant players as opposed to the northern stream pieces?

[Organizing Low]

I'm staying up till midnight.. that is my limit..but I can be texted at 2:30 am if things look awesome

what about before or after 2:30?

[Damage In Tolland]

I agree....getting cautiously optimistic for an ene special.

There's very few storms where you've gotten snow and I;ve gotten nothing..even it's only 1-3 or something like that

[Damage In Tolland]

Id be fairly surprised if it totally whiffed as to give nothing to ENE...as the longer wave pattern really wants to try and "slot" the benchmark, but we still need the details to work out and the Euro isn't exactly making it easy on us. We could end up with a solution where it tries to escape to the east but it hooks pretty sharply back to the left and hammers ENE.

A BM track wouldn't leave this are with zero snow

[weatherwiz]

There's very few storms where you've gotten snow and I;ve gotten nothing..even it's only 1-3 or something like that

You and I are still very well in this.

[ORH_wxman]

A BM track wouldn't leave this are with zero snow

Where did I say it would?

[Damage In Tolland]

Where did I say it would?

Well you didn't directly..but when ENE is referenced I think some of the newbies and Moneypits of the world think that means noone else gets snow..esp when Bob and Samuel say nothing west of ORH

[Ginx snewx]

I have a hypothesis as to why that is... It has to do with relativity between the respective fields. I think in a neutral hemisphere the SST and thermal forcing from the Pac might be more effectual on the pattern, but during an era of severely depressed -AO I don't know if that is the case. The gist of it is that relative to -AO creating bigger gradients than normal, the current Nina almost acts like a warm signal against.

Just an idea.

One I have been spouting all summer fall and been told impossible, good thought Tip. Violently agree.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's an interesting hypothesis, would be interesting to go back to past Nina's with strong -AO's and see if anything similar occurred at all. The AO is just insanely negative right now and looks to remain so for the time being. I was thinking this as well...since usually in Nina's the northern stream pieces are usually more dominant considering how suppressed things are due to the incredible -AO/-NAO is it at all possible that we actually see the southern stream pieces being the dominant players as opposed to the northern stream pieces?

It's a good question, but in the end, everything is relative to everything else... The general weather enthusiast and even many Mets forget that, and start applying these signals in blanket methodology. It's kind of like that warmer oceans mean bigger hurricanes thing - that's not so if the whole of the atmosphere heats in tandem, which would imply the gradient remains the same, and it would be other factors determining hurricane frequency and intensity.

So we have a Nina, but we have a tsunamis of a cold signal from the North - so what's the actual gradient.

[weathafella]

I'll tell you what folks. GFS has 12/31/00 written all over it including cp taint and significant rain as the predominant despite a favorable track. The lack of hp is haunting me.

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL. Sam said warning criteria.

He did not say no snow, only west of ORH.

[ORH_wxman]

Well you didn't directly..but when ENE is referenced I think some of the newbies and Moneypits of the world think that means noone else gets snow..esp when Bob and Samuel say nothing west of ORH

If it tracks over the BM, most areas will get hammered...but that isn't what I said...I said the longwave pattern is kind of targeting the BM as a general slot for the storm to pass through, but the details still have to cooperate and the Euro is making that tough on us so far. I could envision a scenario where it tries to escape EAST but then the late capture/phase hooks it back left....and it would probably hammer ENE in that setup because of a track slightly E of the BM...hence the "trying to escape east" phrase.

Everyone is still completely in the game at this point, we havent even reached inside of 100 hours yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll tell you what folks. GFS has 12/31/00 written all over it including cp taint and significant rain as the predominant despite a favorable track. The lack of hp is haunting me.

Gerrod...it's the GFS and i8z for that matter. Come on

[weathafella]

Gerrod...it's the GFS and i8z for that matter. Come on

All I"m saying is if it verified, I may be fooked.