D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[MaineJayhawk]

18z GFS hollers, "FIYYAAHHHH!!"

21 buns with that one, yessah.

[Ginx snewx]

The GEFS preformed horrible until inside 84 on the LP Monday, they did OK after that but if you remember they insisted on the BID to Bos then broke west. Let's hope that 100 mile shift happens again

[Damage In Tolland]

The Ens shifting so far east at 18z means the 00z should be quite a bit east.. but who cares at this time range.

Let's just focus on getting the Euro to bend west again like it did at 12z.

Nogaps where we want it

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is it me or is this taking on more of Miller B appeal on the GFS....just glancing at the QPF depictions it seems so.

[DomNH]

The Ens shifting so far east at 18z means the 00z should be quite a bit east.. but who cares at this time range.

Let's just focus on getting the Euro to bend west again like it did at 12z.

Nogaps where we want it

Now this sounds more like Rev Kev.

[ski MRG]

You betting the ranch on it?

13.1/4

I worked too hard to get the ranch so I don't use it for wagering. Obviously it would be nice if the Euro started throwing us a bone on this one but it's still early enough to maintain an interest. Certainly some ingredients on the table so it bears watching. However it's not like I'll be getting up at 2:30AM to see if Will is posting with Ray about the reversal of fortunes on the 00z Euro or, if that's a bust , I certainly won't be checking in at 6:00am for the 06GFs. I definitely won't be sneaking a look at tomorrow's 12z suite either as I reallly just have a passing interest in all this. Hey, do you know what the JMA is showing....

[Baroclinic Zone]

The GEFS preformed horrible until inside 84 on the LP Monday, they did OK after that but if you remember they insisted on the BID to Bos then broke west. Let's hope that 100 mile shift happens again

I'm not buying what the 18z GFS Ens. are selling. I think this thing comes right up over the BM.

[Damage In Tolland]

Forky should probably state what he thinks

[Mr Torchey]

Forky should probably state what he thinks

Forky is going to talk about the fact that the gfs is notorious for over developing the northern stream regarding east coast cyclones

[Ginx snewx]

I worked too hard to get the ranch so I don't use it for wagering. Obviously it would be nice if the Euro started throwing us a bone on this one but it's still early enough to maintain an interest. Certainly some ingredients on the table so it bears watching. However it's not like I'll be getting up at 2:30AM to see if Will is posting with Ray about the reversal of fortunes on the 00z Euro or, if that's a bust , I certainly won't be checking in at 6:00am for the 06GFs. I definitely won't be sneaking a look at tomorrow's 12z suite either as I reallly just have a passing interest in all this. Hey, do you know what the JMA is showing....

LOL where do we get our next rock, Koreans have some good sh.it Damn Europeans keep selling cut stuff now they want to shun us, maybe time for some homegrown, I mean once a year it's the bomb.

[Duality]

Forky is going to talk about the fact that the gfs is notorious for over developing the northern stream regarding east coast cyclones

as we thought

[Ginx snewx]

CT Blizz what's the correlation with 18 Z Ens and 0Z op runs first I have ever heard that

[OKpowdah]

I'm just glad we are really beginning to totally discount the idea of an inland runner. I'd rather take something that looks more on the suppressed side now and something with some phasing issues than something that appears to be tracking to the west of us. As Kevin always says, in Nina's everything trends NW

Only when it's already to our NW I think there's something to there being a natural bifurcation of model progs for New England snowstorms --> If it's too far SE, it trends SE; if it's too far NW, it trends NW

[ski MRG]

LOL where do we get our next rock, Koreans have some good sh.it Damn Europeans keep selling cut stuff now they want to shun us, maybe time for some homegrown, I mean once a year it's the bomb.

Not far from it Ginx, saw some cool drifts today. I'm guardedly optimistic about the weekend. The AK clan arrives this weekend and it would be just like them to make a grand entrance. The correlation between their visits and increased snowfall has been uncanny.

[weatherwiz]

Only when it's already to our NW I think there's something to there being a natural bifurcation of model progs for New England snowstorms --> If it's too far SE, it trends SE; if it's too far NW, it trends NW

That has made perfect sense so far in 2010.

[Logan11]

I said it before and its simplistic maybe.... But my feeling is the northern stream is the boss this year and it will catch and bring in this southern stream disturbance ultimately if we get the phase. There is a way that it could be squished and never really phase, but most models seem to see the phasing now. I think we have a low on the Cape eventually.

I think all of SNE will see accumulating snow..most likely we'll see a compromise..Euro will obviously come west some and GFS already has started its east shift. I suspect 0z might be well east.

I don't think this will be a KU, but a solid snow event for all of us

[OKpowdah]

I think that ultimately, NE RI, interior SE MA, and downeast Maine get warning criteria snow, with zilch west of ORH.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think that ultimately, NE RI, interior SE MA, and downeast Maine get warning criteria snow, with zilch west of ORH.

Doesn't make any kind of sense

[Mr Torchey]

Not far from it Ginx, saw some cool drifts today. I'm guardedly optimistic about the weekend. The AK clan arrives this weekend and it would be just like them to make a grand entrance. The correlation between their visits and increased snowfall has been uncanny.

Agreed, just spoke to my aunt and uncle from South Carolina, guess when they arrive at LGA, lol, SUnday 1pm............waiting until tomorrow but looks like I may tell them to head on up on Saturday instead so they are not stuck in Charlotte for 24hrs. My Uncle is a huge snow fan, and his every other year trip to yankee land is much anticipated, he is a HUGE lover of snow and cold..........I think this year might deliver although nothing like 1985, that was special.

[moneypitmike]

I worked too hard to get the ranch so I don't use it for wagering. Obviously it would be nice if the Euro started throwing us a bone on this one but it's still early enough to maintain an interest. Certainly some ingredients on the table so it bears watching. However it's not like I'll be getting up at 2:30AM to see if Will is posting with Ray about the reversal of fortunes on the 00z Euro or, if that's a bust , I certainly won't be checking in at 6:00am for the 06GFs. I definitely won't be sneaking a look at tomorrow's 12z suite either as I reallly just have a passing interest in all this. Hey, do you know what the JMA is showing....

Late nights are things of my past. Hell, I typically don't even last for the NAM these days. I get up at 4:30 and check things leisurely over my morning joe.

Hopefully, what I see tomorrow morning will make me want me to stay up.

[Typhoon Tip]

What's causing the northern stream energy to stay sort of hung back?

Not quite enough southern stream -

How this works is a stronger southern stream system collapses the geopotential medium (weakens it) as it is translating underneath, and down it comes... What is intriguing in this is that the block repositioning farther north of all this noise would actually help that, because as it pushes west over top the PV, that wants to "push" that feature south - if a southern stream system is there, the PV would smartly arrive anyway.

There's room to iron these interacting field out... For one, I am not certain the southern stream system is amply sampled, and may be stronger when it comes through the nascent western ridge. ALB AFD does make a good point about the rather dullard amplitude over western N/A, BUT, it is not really absolutely necessary when you have a southern stream system, with a PV that wants to come down, and a ridge trying to make that happen over top.

That said, this does have the vibe of a big gradient over western NE. Could see a UKMET/GFS/DGEX type blend here with the teleconnector layout pointing that way.

I am better than 50/50 in belief that the ECM will abruptly come back with this. The event is 120 hours - technically that was never in the ECM's wheel-house where it goes from okay to scary good.

Also, general comment RE the GFS. The model is not as bad as you may think, or as it has become popular to believe, since about last June, when they snuck an upgrade in there and it has been performing competitively - though slightly behind - the ECM/UKMET models - close enough in the verification scores to argue one should not ignore. So I disagree with this auto 'woe is GFS and me' -ism. It's not really supported, even if the GFS did not do so hot on the last event, which I am certain that is objectively true - it can be picked apart by the naysayers no doubt, subjectively. Anyway, what has me concerned here is that many many systems in history where phasing on the M/A took place did so with a ridge eruption around or N of Jame Bay, and a sudden realization of a quasi-polar vortex takes place from the MA to off-shore NE. Feb 1978 is just one example, but a very good one. I see some similarity in the sense that we do have ridging N repositioning/and or developing at the same time southern stream impulse times well with the western end of PV dynamics; very precarious, and if there is a better interaction of these fields ...heh, come on, do we really think the models are seeing this/that 120 hours out?

[Damage In Tolland]

Late nights are things of my past. Hell, I typically don't even last for my man these days. I get up at 4:30 and check things leisurely with my guy joe.

Hopefully, when I see him tomorrow morning my morning wood will stay up.

:axe:

[MaineJayhawk]

Late nights are things of my past. Hell, I typically don't even last for the NAM these days. I get up at 4:30 and check things leisurely over my morning joe.

Hopefully, what I see tomorrow morning will make me want me to stay up.

Exactly what I do. I've tried staying up for the GFS but make it to hr 66 and it's game over man ... GAME OVER!!

[ORH_wxman]

Doesn't make any kind of sense

I think I'd rather be east right now than west...if someone held a gun to my head.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think I'd rather be east right now than west...if someone held a gun to my head.

Well then you'd better head to your grandparents house

[Logan11]

It's too early for me to emotionally commit even though I'm optimistic. I'm looking at the models each run, but more of a cursory look. Around Thursday it would get more serious. For now I'm more into the next 1-3" chance tomorrow....

Late nights are things of my past. Hell, I typically don't even last for the NAM these days. I get up at 4:30 and check things leisurely over my morning joe.

Hopefully, what I see tomorrow morning will make me want me to stay up.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think I'd rather be east right now than west...if someone held a gun to my head.

How many times over the yrs have we seen these things come back west? Esp in a nina year. They always do

[40/70 Benchmark]

:axe:

"guy toe" :

[Bryan]

OES on Cape/S. Shore right now?

[ORH_wxman]

Well then you'd better head to your grandparents house

I'm always leery of the Cape this time of year...so I wouldn't trade...but I might trade with someone on the north shore. But I think I'll be okay in the end where I am.

This isn't your typical Nina event....its almost acting like a Nino event with the southern portion of the split polar jet acting like the STJ and the monster blocking to our north. So there is no guarantee this just jumps NW like a SW flow event or a typical Miller B event.