weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Friday? geez.. how about Sunday? Well that would be on a how different level of excitement lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Jackpot New Haven CT 1888 anyone? lol... no... not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Entertainment purposes of this run are phenomenal. LOL Looks like its time to change your model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well I'm hedging my bets and buying stock in rope and chairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 BOOM Notable changes in the upper levels though, so the GFS is not exactly steadfast as some may assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 As Will said...still some big difference with the nrn stream on this run, but it's coming more in line. I'm not concerned at all yet considering how far SE the Euro was. Yeah given how stout the Euro has been with the northern stream...I'm not concerned at all for mixing/rain issues unless maybe I was on ACK or the outer Cape at this point, and even there they may get the jackpot. We still have quite a bit of work to do to even make this a hit despite the pretty maps the GFS is throwing out there. Its still not all that stout with the northern stream...something the Euro has been very consistent with....so while it DOES phase with the N stream, its still more southern stream vs the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I love the "verge of collapse" ambiance that's pervaded the New England club on this board since the middle of last winter. It's... it's delicious. And really, it'd have to hold serve on a favorable solution right to warning verification for the collective to stay back from the edge... I'll put down some newspaper and/or tarp for the splashback of the early jumpers. Still not seeing decent HP to the north as you fetish but then again 2/16/96 ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This isn't going to happen, but fun to look at on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If anything it's looking like the second half of this month could be quite active with lots of storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Rain with this storm for CC. Man can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's interesting that the 18z gfs solution with somewhat of a northern phase isn't all too dissimilar from the 12z gfs run with the srn stream going to town. I'm glad it looks like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What's causing the northern stream energy to stay sort of hung back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's interesting that the 18z gfs solution with somewhat of a northern phase isn't all too dissimilar from the 12z gfs run with the srn stream going to town. I'm glad it looks like the euro. I think its still semi-similar solution because the southern stream is still the dominant s/w in that setup. If you look at the lakes pv lobe..its doesn't phase with the southern stream until pretty late in the game....like until 114-120 hours....the Euro is much more robust with this feature penetrating it MUCH further SW than the GFS is. So this is where the GFS is still quite lacking compared to the Euro. Im glad it trended a bit toward it and still shows a huge hit, but its far from all that close yet with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Also, those in sne get some snow after the storm departs, thanks to wrap around moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS has been consistent with pounding 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 /weenie/ 18z NOGAPS is even farther west than 12z /weenie/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Obligatory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Also, those in sne get some snow after the storm departs, thanks to wrap around moisture. Yeah I was looking at that with the 12z runs...plenty of leftover moisture around as H7 is pretty juiced still...looks like it could be rather breezy as well as the storm departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think its still semi-similar solution because the southern stream is still the dominant s/w in that setup. If you look at the lakes pv lobe..its doesn't phase with the southern stream until pretty late in the game....like until 114-120 hours....the Euro is much more robust with this feature penetrating it MUCH further SW than the GFS is. So this is where the GFS is still quite lacking compared to the Euro. Im glad it trended a bit toward it and still shows a huge hit, but its far from all that close yet with the northern stream. Yeah just catching up on H5, the 18z gfs def looks more like the euro with that vort coming south from the Lakes after hr 102 on the euro. The gfs still goes bonkers, closing it south of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i take this over 12z any day, much bigger hit for NNE ski country. sugarloaf to whiteface, everyone gets buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 All of SNE is buried on the 18z GFS, weenie model forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 No, not really. 18z GFS is like two and a half feet of snow for you, lol. Massive synoptic moisture, plus long duration NE upsloping flow into the east slopes... jesus h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 When I get a little down on the slow start to winter (cold, but dry), I remind myself how utterly wretched this pattern is for northern Maine. The amplified solutions for the east coast for this weekend would probably result in more rain at KCAR. They are +9 for December so far. Everything north and east of Bangor is an absolute torch....shades of 2001-2 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i take this over 12z any day, much bigger hit for NNE ski country. sugarloaf to whiteface, everyone gets buried I wouldn't complain over either one Nice to see LESS differences between the GFS and Euro. So the GFS is making a peace offering - will the Euro respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean is southeast of the 12z run...actually quite a bit southeast. It probably got rid of its Hudson Valley cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ensembles still 200 miles or so se of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 When I get a little down on the slow start to winter (cold, but dry), I remind myself how utterly wretched this pattern is for northern Maine. The amplified solutions for the east coast for this weekend would probably result in more rain at KCAR. They are +9 for December so far. Everything north and east of Bangor is an absolute torch....shades of 2001-2 around here. As much as I feel their pain, I think its a small price to pay for the op GFS solutions to verify around here After all, didn't they do well in '02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I wouldn't complain over either one Nice to see LESS differences between the GFS and Euro. So the GFS is making a peace offering - will the Euro respond? lol, could also be the GFS slowly being beaten into submission by the Euro and taking as many as it can before it submits. (hopefully euro is more friendly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hey.... I did 14 years with the NWS as COOP and Skywarn from Jaffrey...now in Hull Mass...and just enjoying the weather now here.....I used to freelance for the Keene Sentinel....great town! Very cool! Born and raised in Keene, and love it! Beautiful town, and perfect size for me. Not necessarily the greatest location for exciting weather, though we do alright in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean is southeast of the 12z run...actually quite a bit southeast. It probably got rid of its Hudson Valley cutters. Some people in CT are worried about rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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