CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anything west of the BM track is not good for Cape Cod, MA, we will get low level warming and flood with rain. We need a 41.5n/69.8w tracking low in which it deepens rapidly down to around 970mb or less and we get within the CCB and comma head as it stalls east of CHH for 24 hours, we get a 30-36 hour period of moderate to heavy snowfall. That would be the ultimate scenario for me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 978mb just SE of ACK going NNW to coastal NH while bombing...it even keeps BOS all snow. That actually looks like the Ukie solution. You can always count on both the DGEX and Ukie for extreme weenie solutions in this time range. They would probably be better off running the Eta past 84hr via the GFS rather than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow, just saw it, looks great Hahaha it snows up here for like 60+ hours straight on the DGEX. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 By the way, cities northeast of KBUF are getting a ton of snow right now. My grandmother in Williamsville, NY said there is about 12" on the ground and another 12-18" expected by tomorrow morning. Radar imagery shows intense band right over their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 They would probably be better off running the Eta past 84hr via the GFS rather than the NAM. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 By the way, cities northeast of KBUF are getting a ton of snow right now. My grandmother in Williamsville, NY said there is about 12" on the ground and another 12-18" expected by tomorrow morning. Radar imagery shows intense band right over their area. As I've learned before... this is probably the last thing anyone on here cares about right now. Another meso-scale favored snowbelt getting more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I need this storm to happen; its basically my last chance before 1/2 to see a winter storm. I'm in Florida from 12/25 to 1/1, which will be fun but if we get anything over 6" while Im gone..then I wont be happy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 As I've learned before... this is probably the last thing anyone on here cares about right now. Another meso-scale favored snowbelt getting more snow. Are you kidding? I am sure everyone here in the day 5-6 storm threat thread in the New England subforum was dying to hear about lake effect snow bands north of Buffalo, NY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Are you kidding? I am sure everyone here in the day 5-6 storm threat thread in the New England subforum was dying to hear about lake effect snow bands north of Buffalo, NY!!! There's a D5 snow threat??? I thought this thread was dedicated to Ray's LES circle jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 As I've learned before... this is probably the last thing anyone on here cares about right now. Another meso-scale favored snowbelt getting more snow. Wait, I am confused, we haven't had snow since January, how are we favored? On a mesoscale level maybe, but when was the last time you have heard CC getting snows while everyone else hasn't? I have not been notified of this. I mean my grandparents are getting feet of snow and I have nothing but clouds with an occassional cloudup teasing us with potential flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wait, I am confused, we haven't had snow since January, how are we favored? On a mesoscale level maybe, but when was the last time you have heard CC getting snows while everyone else hasn't? I have not been notified of this. I mean my grandparents are getting feet of snow and I have nothing but clouds with an occassional cloudup teasing us with potential flurries. LOL, he was talking about KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z GFS big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 looks like the GFS cooking up another hit at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 18z GFS looks to massacre us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z looks good....precip cutoff greater over PA so far, but low position is nearly exact to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow powder, I totally blew that one, yeah I understand what you mean about KBUF, I didn't like the news neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z GFS solution is starting to come around a bit to the Euro upper air solution but still some notable differences. As for the actual solution we care about on a model run, its going to be a huge hit for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOL, he was talking about KBUF. lol, yeah I know, that was just a quick reaction. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z GFS big hit looks like the GFS cooking up another hit at 96 hours The 18z GFS looks to massacre us. 18Z looks good....precip cutoff greater over PA so far, but low position is nearly exact to 12z 18z GFS solution is starting to come around a bit to the Euro upper air solution but still some notable differences. As for the actual solution we care about on a model run, its going to be a huge hit for a lot of the area. lol Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 18z GFS looks to massacre us. Heavy, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wait, I am confused, we haven't had snow since January, how are we favored? On a mesoscale level maybe, but when was the last time you have heard CC getting snows while everyone else hasn't? I have not been notified of this. I mean my grandparents are getting feet of snow and I have nothing but clouds with an occassional cloudup teasing us with potential flurries. I hope you're being sarcastic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow sne is crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hmmm, I'll take the ots option over another rain event. That last one not only ruined a decent start to the VT ski season but it also screwed up the pond/lake ice - hopefully not for too long. The several inches of clear, strong, black ice that was out there has now turned to dangerous, brittle, white honeycombed crap on the ponds around here. No, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS has a different evolution. Weaker southern shortwave and more phasing with pv. This is more like the euro expect the gfs does it quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks more like the Euro to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow, got to admit, I didn't feel good about this GFS run, but I'll take it. Be interesting to see if the Euro shifts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow sne is crushed. It's massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ALB not getting too excited.. HOWEVER...EVEN THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACELOW...TO BECOME "CAPTURED" BY AN UPPER LEVEL STORM...PRETTY FARSOUTH AND EAST FROM THE USUAL "BENCHMARK" FOR A TRADITIONALSNOWSTORM IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IN FACT...THIS TRACK LOOKS VERYSIMILAR TO LAST YEAR`S STORM WHERE MOST OF OUR AREA (EVEN TO THESOUTH) RECEIVED VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL.ALSO...THERE IS NOT THE USUAL DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPERLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAT USUALLY PRECEDES ASIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM.FINALLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER THE 12Z GEM-NHEMOR ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP ANY SURFACE WAVE MOVE OPEN AND EVEN A BITFURTHER OUT TO SEA WHILE THE UPPER AIR LOW REMAINS BIFURCATED FROMTHE SURFACE ONE.SUSPECT THE GFS IS UP TO USUAL EAST CYCLOGENESIS BIAS WHICH WE SEETIME AND TIME AGAIN DURING THE WINTER.HOWEVER...SINCE THE OTHER LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE UPPERAIR LOW SEPARATED FROM ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT...THIS UPPER LEVELFEATURE MOVING TOWARD US FROM THE NORTH COULD BRING SOME SNOWSHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THEMENTION OF 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHTCHANCES IN VALLEY AREAS...LOW CHANCES HIGHER TERRAIN FRO SUNDAY ANDTUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 lol Lock it up. That's the 00z, 12z, and now 18z with the 6z a burp run. La la la la la la la la lock it up. But in all seriousness, I have a good gut feeling about this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 nice... man those 0Z runs are going to be great tonight.. I am going to need lots of coffee going forward!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.