dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It does have the important shortwave over MT/UT that the GFS has (actually was the key feature in amplifying the trough on the 12z GFS)--so that could be a sign of life. Lots of things to iron out in the next 24-36hrs. The Euro has twice the resolution over the GFS so it's tough to bet against it in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 84 hr NAM...heights are still amplifying at this hour which should be a good thing. Yup. More s/w ridging than the Euro at least. The PV is further east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 84 hr NAM...heights are still amplifying at this hour which should be a good thing. Looks a bit Ukieish....getting the amplification in another way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Model mania at its best......Twas 5 days before the storm,all of the weather weenies were clutching the weather models while they sleep with hopes of an East Coast Blizzard dancing in their heads, Hearing Santa yell now the GFS, the Euro and the Gem all come in line in hopes of heavy snow from Maine to the spine of the appalachians, you get the drift.... yeah ok this is coming from a true new england snow lover ok..I admit it! Loving all of the model wrangling over this East Coast white dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Dental appt looms. Then a walk on a cold night after dinner with my dog. Then hunker down for the 0Z/15 movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Model mania at its best......Twas 5 days before the storm,all of the weather weenies were clutching the weather models while they sleep with hopes of an East Coast Blizzard dancing in their heads, Hearing Santa yell now the GFS, the Euro and the Gem all come in line in hopes of heavy snow from Maine to the spine of the appalachians, you get the drift.... yeah ok this is coming from a true new england snow lover ok..I admit it! Loving all of the model wrangling over this East Coast white dream! originality fail just kidding with ya Best of luck to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know it's winter when the main forum is extrapolating out the 84 hour 18z NAM and calling it a "big hit" and "in line with the GFS". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know it's winter when the main forum is extrapolating out the 84 hour 18z NAM and calling it a "big hit" and "in line with the GFS". no kidding. it's an exercise in futility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know it's winter when the main forum is extrapolating out the 84 hour 18z NAM and calling it a "big hit" and "in line with the GFS". Wouldnt have it any other way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 no kidding. it's an exercise in futility too. Extrapolated 84h NAM and the GFS at 132 hours....not exactly murderers row of model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wouldnt have it any other way though Nope. I love it. Extrapolated 84h NAM and the GFS at 132 hours....not exactly murderers row of model agreement. NOGAPS isn't progressive, and it has a major SE bias, so you might as well group it with them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Very cool!! Definitely post that when you have it all figured out! Probably couldn't have asked for a better storm or position! it was an amazing stroke of luck considering i had owned the camera for all of 1 week at the time! i piled out of work up in N Chemsford (lowell connector) at about 6pm, to deep heat and humidity, with one lone giant CB anvil head, with corpuscular rays emmanating from around the edges (sun was behind). as i gazed upon this awe inspiring stature it dawned on me both that that was a supercell, and that i knew exactly where to film the beast. i tore down 495, up rt Poop, banged off on the 111 exit, and shot up the backside of Prospect Hill in Havard and there it was - menacing black base, huge anvil head that by then was spreading overhead. i set up the tri-pod and mounted the camera, as these multi pulse brilliant single channel discharges zapped the ground from across the valley, and from the base. the way i knew it was a supercell was that the southern side of the CB tower was super-sharply lined next to blue sky, with these roils of new turret elements rolling up the side - almost fast enough to discern with the naked eye. then, there it was, a wall cloud, and it was back lit too it never produced a funnel from that vantage point, but appeared to almost try really hard several times. at about that point - some 20 minutes after arriving there - a group of pedestrians had gathered and the next thing i knew was giving a lecture on thunderstorm meteorology, and that i suspected we were looking at a supercell - this thing really looked like something you see in the plains quite literally. just then a guy turned up his radio and it was one of those older pre-fab recordings that comes over ems: "the n-a-tion-al wea-ther-ser-vice has is-sued a tor-nado war-ning in effect un-till 6:50 for wes-tern middlse-x and cen-tral wor-cester co-nties". right shortly there after an anvil discharge took place fairly close by and everyone scurried like roaches, me too. as i shot down the front side of Prospect and turned right down 110 toward bolton, i peered right and saw suspicious elements hanging from the same area that produced the wall cloud. i pulled over and filmed a couple of horizontal funnel clouds that materialized and decayed just as fast. i had to cut it there though because some CG was getting frequent and nickle sized hail started bouncing around. i got back in the car and took some more images of an obvious meso-cyclone nearing Sterling Ma, but no wall cloud there... I ultimately ended up down in Clinton Ma, where there was a report of a funnel there, but i did not see one there. great day of chasing for SNE standards. later on i was trying to imagine if 1953 were ever to happen again, and dreampt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know it's winter when the main forum is extrapolating out the 84 hour 18z NAM and calling it a "big hit" and "in line with the GFS". what does the 18z NOGAPS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 what does the 18z NOGAPS show? I didn't even know there was an 18z lol. I don't think it's out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What's the precip shield like for the 12Z Euro? Anything even get to SE Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 originality fail just kidding with ya Best of luck to us! Hey.... I did 14 years with the NWS as COOP and Skywarn from Jaffrey...now in Hull Mass...and just enjoying the weather now here.....I used to freelance for the Keene Sentinel....great town! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What's the precip shield like for the 12Z Euro? Anything even get to SE Mass? It give the Cape a couple of inches and some flurries/light snow as far NW as South Shore SW to about EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 18z gfs has just started! This thread is about to gain a page a minute!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It give the Cape a couple of inches and some flurries/light snow as far NW as South Shore SW to about EWB. I'm just glad it's not that far away from a hit and it's within the realm of possibilities that it trends west. Unlike the last storm when we knew we were fooked after two runs of a Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Extrapolated 84h NAM and the GFS at 132 hours....not exactly murderers row of model agreement. it's more like your 7,8,9 hitters in the NL...at Petco Park...with a wind blowing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't know if you guys have seen the DGEX yet, but it basically confirms our suspiscion that the NAM was headed up the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 it's more like your 7,8,9 hitters in the NL...at Petco Park...with a wind blowing in. Royals 7-9 at Oakland Coliseum. You're talking MM5/COAMPS territory. Don't know if you guys have seen the DGEX yet, but it basically confirms our suspiscion that the NAM was headed up the coast.. Add it to the list, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 it's more like your 7,8,9 hitters in the NL...at Petco Park...with a wind blowing in. I'm not sure if its that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't know if you guys have seen the DGEX yet, but it basically confirms our suspiscion that the NAM was headed up the coast.. Wow, just saw it, looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 on the other hand, for 144 hour out in time that is a pretty amazing multi ensemble member agreement. stunning really... i'd say keep an eye on this thing. it didn't sit well with me that the 00z and 12z ECM were at odds with the previous cycle(s) - which really could be a red flag for the old continuity rule. but, it equally is disconcerting that the ensemble mean is more amplified than the deterministic solution. that is a huge rarity. typically the deterministic will be the more amplified, because the mean incorporates enough runs that flight out on their own flat fancy and spoil the stew. the operational run is in fact that bad spice this go - odd. hmm, almost makes you wonder if this does flip back madly on the next run with more proficient phase getting pinned nearby. with the NAO ridge still repositioning west still enters the teleconnector through the OV for negative geopotential heights - there's that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow, just saw it, looks great "So... I've got THAT going for me. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ok is there a scenario in which Cape Cod, MA sees all snow and we get a B/M track? I mean seriously, highs around 40/41 for Sunday/Monday this weekend/early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't know if you guys have seen the DGEX yet, but it basically confirms our suspiscion that the NAM was headed up the coast.. That's about a perfect track for up here...looks like about 1.50" QPF as it hugs the coast and makes landfall at PWM and retrogrades to BTV. Gotta love the DGEX...almost always a weenie solution. loledit...n/m 2" QPF bullseye. I still think I'll be lucky to get 2" of snow....nevermind 2" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's about a perfect track for up here...looks like about 1.50" QPF as it hugs the coast and makes landfall at PWM and retrogrades to BTV. Gotta love the DGEX...almost always a weenie solution. lol The 6z DGEX was well SE, so the trend is clearly our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's about a perfect track for up here...looks like about 1.50" QPF as it hugs the coast and makes landfall at PWM and retrogrades to BTV. Gotta love the DGEX...almost always a weenie solution. lol 978mb just SE of ACK going NNW to coastal NH or S ME while bombing...it even keeps BOS all snow. That actually looks like the Ukie solution. You can always count on both the DGEX and Ukie for extreme weenie solutions in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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