dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Just catching up... So what is the consensus? Looks to me like the GFS is the only model left that isn't shooting most of that potent H5 energy from SW Canada into the Yukon and instead chooses to keep in bowling eastward through the southern prairie provinces. My hope for this system up here is waning as it seems every run requiring a lobe of the PV for phasing is a too little too late deal up here. I suppose the Ukie looks interesting, but it always seems to past 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 They never want to stray far from their previous guidance. It typically will serve you well, especially in the medium range to extended range. Plus, I'm not sure we see a strong signal to choose between an OTS and a big hit solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I forget when I took it. The time would be on my laptop with the original, so I can find out later. The fb album says "updated about 5 months ago" fwiw Well the photo says it was added on July 12th so I guess we can discount July 21st lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Just catching up... So what is the consensus? Looks to me like the GFS is the only model left that isn't shooting most of that potent H5 energy from SW Canada into the Yukon and instead chooses to keep in bowling eastward through the southern prairie provinces. My hope for this system up here is waning as it seems every run requiring a lobe of the PV for phasing is a too little too late deal up here. I suppose the Ukie looks interesting, but it always seems to past 72hr. A glancing blow, mostly for coastal areas, seems to be the middle of the road right now. On the bright side, the 18z NAM will not be the most important run of your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well the photo says it was added on July 12th so I guess we can discount July 21st lol. oh yeah... good call lol I do remember that this wasn't a huge severe outbreak that was anticipated. Storms formed late in the afternoon over SE NH and eastern MA. That shot was looking east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yes I posted yesterday's 12z run. I fixed that. I am not using that as my guide I just posted today's 12z run that shows QPF over SE MA at 144h. Last nights 00z run was like 1000 miles offshore and to have today's 12z run come like 900 miles west is a flag imo. edit: Jerry, it also looks better than yesterdays 12z run. It's deeper and has more of a hook in it. Can't say it's correct, but it looks even west of yesterday's 12z run. A flag that it's less out to sea. 15.4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's a really impressive zonally oriented trough extending all the way across North America on the 12z GFS Please refrain from the inevitable inappropriate comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Please refrain from the inevitable inappropriate comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's a really impressive zonally oriented trough extending all the way across North America on the 12z GFS Please refrain from the inevitable inappropriate comments That is a pretty decent flow...pretty strong ML/UL flow with TONS of s/w's being embedded into the flow...hopefully at least ONE of them can do the trick for us. That's a pretty decent looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 euro ens. similar to euro op. uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Thanks! I took that pic this past summer. Here's the full image hahaha by the way, I'm away from my laptop with the original shot (higher res), so I grabbed this from the album I made on facebook, and I saw my response to one of the comments: "I really want to sit out in a field for an afternoon and get a time lapse of cumulus growth. These would have been great for that, but I was walking as I took the pictures." I purchased a Sony HD video camera for the purpose of cloud videography last summer, and as a reward i got to fild a supercell cutting S through ORH Co, repleat with wall cloud and tornado warning. the film shows lots of tremendous CG. i filmed it from prospect hill rd, elevation 500f and looking west across the valley toward Wachusett. i haven't crop it out yet, and am still trying to find the software to speed up the film and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Beautiful afternoon, flurries in the air, Christmas music on the radio, its gon snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Was that the one around July 20 (I think) that produced tornado warnings in the Fitchburg, MA area? That was one of the coolest things I ever saw that's the storm i videotaped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What's good about these potential storms this year is that they disappear so soon that none of get emotionally invested in them! Its the ones that trend out to sea 48 hours out which suck. Countless hours wasted on models for nothing.. etc..if its gonna go out to sea show it now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I purchased a Sony HD video camera for the purpose of cloud videography last summer, and as a reward i got to fild a supercell cutting S through ORH Co, repleat with wall cloud and tornado warning. the film shows lots of tremendous CG. i filmed it from prospect hill rd, elevation 500f and looking west across the valley toward Wachusett. i haven't crop it out yet, and am still trying to find the software to speed up the film and so forth. You have to post that when possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wiz and Tip posting about severe ...the 18z GFS can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I purchased a Sony HD video camera for the purpose of cloud videography last summer, and as a reward i got to fild a supercell cutting S through ORH Co, repleat with wall cloud and tornado warning. the film shows lots of tremendous CG. i filmed it from prospect hill rd, elevation 500f and looking west across the valley toward Wachusett. i haven't crop it out yet, and am still trying to find the software to speed up the film and so forth. Very cool!! Definitely post that when you have it all figured out! Probably couldn't have asked for a better storm or position! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wiz and Tip posting about severe ...the 18z GFS can't come soon enough. May as well post about something that actually occurs in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 May as well post about something that actually occurs in SNE Ooooo burn... Wiz just got us back for all the times we called the severe wx in ne weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 78h 18z NAM. Doesn't have the closed off 500 low up in Alberta like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I purchased a Sony HD video camera for the purpose of cloud videography last summer, and as a reward i got to fild a supercell cutting S through ORH Co, repleat with wall cloud and tornado warning. the film shows lots of tremendous CG. i filmed it from prospect hill rd, elevation 500f and looking west across the valley toward Wachusett. i haven't crop it out yet, and am still trying to find the software to speed up the film and so forth. This was one of my weenie/pathetic videos of that. No good reason for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That piece of energy makes all the world of difference. edit 1 It's that piece of energy that captures the low on the GFS and stalls it out. edit 2 Also look where the Euro takes it? Due north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 78h 18z NAM. Doesn't have the closed off 500 low up in Alberta like the 12z GFS. It definitely looks more amplified than the Euro does, at least. It's a real weenie point, but there's nothing better to look at right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 78h 18z NAM. Doesn't have the closed off 500 low up in Alberta like the 12z GFS. It does have the important shortwave over MT/UT that the GFS has (actually was the key feature in amplifying the trough on the 12z GFS)--so that could be a sign of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It does have the important shortwave over MT/UT that the GFS has (actually was the key feature in amplifying the trough on the 12z GFS)--so that could be a sign of life. Look at what the Euro does with that same piece of energy the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 84 hr NAM...heights are still amplifying at this hour which should be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It does have the important shortwave over MT/UT that the GFS has (actually was the key feature in amplifying the trough on the 12z GFS)--so that could be a sign of life. The position at 84h certainly looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That piece of energy makes all the world of difference. edit 1 It's that piece of energy that captures the low on the GFS and stalls it out. edit 2 Also look where the Euro takes it? Due north! That's not the energy that captures the low, but does make a huge difference. I think of it as the pivot point about which the s/w tends to break. With the euro, the "pivot point" is the vortex that hangs around to our north, thus sending the s/w further east before tilting negative. The GFS on the other hand brings into the picture this bowling ball of energy into northern MN, which takes control as the pivot point, causing our wave to break further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 euro ens. similar to euro op. uh oh It looks a bit more impressive than the OP with the sfc config...less strung out. Overall its probably a good sign...usually the Euro ensemble mean is a bit SE of the OP run, so having it look like it right now is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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