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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

Wow, I really never looked at it this way!

Surely, you are voicing the opinion of the masses; none of these folks who do a good bit of joking on their own would ever take my responses as tongue-in-cheek or with a grain of salt.

It's not as if I've said numerous times previously that I almost always have a hard time getting excited for a storm when there is the absence of my singular favorite feature for winter storms: a cold high pressure locked in to our north.

In no way whatsoever do I fully recognize that there is a good bit of erection from what is projected as either a singular, elongated penis or two conjoined ones (???), but yet favor the more classic setup in order to really start picking at the details, especially as far out as this is, because even though this scenario seems to be a battle of out-to-sea versus cutting north, an optimum solution seems fairly unlikely for most, enough so that perhaps it's too soon to be tossing around comments of certainty.

So, when I see my comrades squawk about how "this one is coming!" saying just that and not much else, I don't hesitate to toss in my two cents tempering enthusiasm with the opposing opinion with an equal amount of support, not for the sake of not only parity but avoiding redundancy, but just because I like being a total jerk.

It might strike one as odd that my "nay-saying" is oft if not always in direct response to posts wherein posters have displayed an opinion without giving any realistic support for it, and that type of onslaught is essentially what you're making an attempt to do here, the only difference is that when I take my swipes, the posters I'm playfully jabbing at are displaying optimism -- many of them would not hesitate to admit it -- whereas I'm taking a more skeptic stance (unofficially regarded as pure, unadulterated evil by many snowhounds). But clearly, you have a valid point here.

Great work shedding light on this; given the brilliant analysis you've shown, perhaps it's for the best you don't post about the weather after all.

I guess we both agree that you don't bring much to the board, glad to hear your long diatribe pointing this out. Hope you post another 500+ word reply to make yourself "win" this non argument to my initial pithy tongue-in-cheek comment.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

I guess we both agree that you don't bring much to the board, glad to hear your long diatribe pointing this out. Hope you post another 500+ word reply to make yourself "win" this non argument to my initial pithy tongue-in-cheek comment.

Nothing says "solid response" quite like working penis jokes into quoted text. A sure sign you might survive here after all!

Again, welcome. Not bad for your first try.

I look forward to your first worthwhile post!

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wokeupthisam

wokeupthisam

Posted
Posted

there is some research - sam made a thread about it.

i read the white picket fence article he posted. it definitely shows there is validity to the argument (that is, if you increased the number of points)...but we are talking scales and reality here.

Yeah, and I think the general conclusion on the picket fence was that it would be worthwhile to increase the onshore sampling IF there was a threat of a big event discernable from the satellite-heavy data. To me, that says there is merit to the argument that the modeling improves once the pieces of interest come ashore. Of course, it could be masked by the fact that once they're onshore, the event is by definition also closer timewise...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Does this setup have any semblance to last years event at the same time?

http://www.meteo.psu...09/us1219j3.php

I'd say there is more than 50% comparability there, sure. But details in the stream interaction that cannot possibly be accurately assessed out side of dumb luck at this time range (and considering in situ complexity) could be profoundly different impacts per locale.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

By the way, one thing that has been put into practice in recent years is recon missions in the Pacific for anticipated significant winter storms. I think that happened with the Blizzard of 2006 and V-Day 2007

Nothing yet. 

000NOUS42 KNHC 141430WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0930 AM EST TUE 14 DECEMBER 2010SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z DECEMBER 2010         WSPOD NUMBER.....10-014 ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.                        JWP
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

HPC kind of a meh as usual

12Z/14 MODELS: THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SO FAR IS THE DEEP

OUTLIER AND CREATES A MAJOR SNOWSTORM THIS WEEKEND FOR THE MID

ATLANTIC AND NEW ENG. THIS STORM IS FORECAST ALMOST EXACTLY ONE

YEAR AFTER LAST YEARS MID ATLANTIC HUGE EVENT ON THE 19TH OF DEC.

SPOOKY! THE 12Z/14 GEFS MEAN IS A MORE MODEST VERSION OF ITS

DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPART BUT STILL PORTENDS A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR

THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE UKMET SOLUTION IS FLATTER WHILE

STILL BRINGING SOME PCPN TO THE MID ATLANTIC....WHILE THE CANADIAN

HAS LITTLE AMPLITUDE AND WOULD SCOOT A FLAT WAVE OUT TO SEA.

MANUAL PROGS WILL HEDGE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OFF THE E COAST ABOUT

A DEGREE TO THE WEST FOR DAYS 5-6...NEXT SUN/MON. THE NEW ECMWF

DEEPENS A VIGOROUS STORM SUN BUT IT IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BE A

HEAVY SN THREAT TO THE MAJOR METRO AREAS FROM RIC TO BOS.

CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIGHT SN EVENT MOSTLY ON THE E

SIDE OF I-95 THIS COMING WEEKEND....RA TO THE S THRU AL/GA AND THE

CAROLINAS.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Some similarities for sure. One big difference this time around is the Pacific jet slamming into the western ridging at the time of the projected storm

i love that thunderhead in your avatar. it clearly shows that it has reached the tropopause in that image. that would have been an awesome one for time lapse/filming ... probably looks just like an a-bomb in faster motion

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

I'd say there is more than 50% comparability there, sure. But details in the stream interaction that cannot possibly be accurately assessed out side of dumb luck at this time range (and considering in situ complexity) could be profoundly different impacts per locale.

Some similarities for sure. One big difference this time around is the Pacific jet slamming into the western ridging at the time of the projected storm

Thanks. Just looking at the Eastern portion of the 500 maps, they have an eerily similar look with the piece of the PV breaking off and dropping into the trough allowing the system to amplify and come up the coast.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Thanks. Just looking at the Eastern portion of the 500 maps, they have an eerily similar look with the piece of the PV breaking off and dropping into the trough allowing the system to amplify and come up the coast.

Fyi - NCEP paid homage to that similarity in their extended range discussion, too, so it's certainly on the table.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

HPC kind of a meh as usual

12Z/14 MODELS: THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SO FAR IS THE DEEP

OUTLIER AND CREATES A MAJOR SNOWSTORM THIS WEEKEND FOR THE MID

ATLANTIC AND NEW ENG. THIS STORM IS FORECAST ALMOST EXACTLY ONE

YEAR AFTER LAST YEARS MID ATLANTIC HUGE EVENT ON THE 19TH OF DEC.

SPOOKY! THE 12Z/14 GEFS MEAN IS A MORE MODEST VERSION OF ITS

DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPART BUT STILL PORTENDS A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR

THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE UKMET SOLUTION IS FLATTER WHILE

STILL BRINGING SOME PCPN TO THE MID ATLANTIC....WHILE THE CANADIAN

HAS LITTLE AMPLITUDE AND WOULD SCOOT A FLAT WAVE OUT TO SEA.

MANUAL PROGS WILL HEDGE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OFF THE E COAST ABOUT

A DEGREE TO THE WEST FOR DAYS 5-6...NEXT SUN/MON. THE NEW ECMWF

DEEPENS A VIGOROUS STORM SUN BUT IT IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BE A

HEAVY SN THREAT TO THE MAJOR METRO AREAS FROM RIC TO BOS.

CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIGHT SN EVENT MOSTLY ON THE E

SIDE OF I-95 THIS COMING WEEKEND....RA TO THE S THRU AL/GA AND THE

CAROLINAS.

I know you'd prefer more barking, but I actually enjoy the tone of this one.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

i love that thunderhead in your avatar. it clearly shows that it has reached the tropopause in that image. that would have been an awesome one for time lapse/filming ... probably looks just like an a-bomb in faster motion

Thanks! :thumbsup: I took that pic this past summer. Here's the full image

post-128-0-81289000-1292356341.jpg

hahaha by the way, I'm away from my laptop with the original shot (higher res), so I grabbed this from the album I made on facebook, and I saw my response to one of the comments:

"I really want to sit out in a field for an afternoon and get a time lapse of cumulus growth. These would have been great for that, but I was walking as I took the pictures."

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

i love that thunderhead in your avatar. it clearly shows that it has reached the tropopause in that image. that would have been an awesome one for time lapse/filming ... probably looks just like an a-bomb in faster motion

Yeah that thing is a beauty! Wonder when he took it? July 21st of this year?

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

They'll toe the line till there is more consensus one way or the other.

Which, I imagine, is what they're supposed to do at this range.

It is only Tuesday, and we're looking at Sunday.

On Saturday, if there is still a looming possibility, I will say that it is only Saturday, and we're looking at Sunday.

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