D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[weathafella]

You can't win this battle. There are years of interactions and context at play here. But it's a welcoming group. Just kick back, find your sense of humor and enjoy the banter. It's all good.

[Damage In Tolland]

well he's comparing it to the GFS....

Yeah..this just helps prove the point that the GFS actually causes more problems in making a forecast than it offers guidance. If we could only get rid of that model..forecast accuracy would go up tenfold. Esp. from the vast coningent of TV mets who simply rip and read it

[weatherwiz]

i think "little merit" is a good way to say it.

i wouldn't argue it has no bearing on the situation but as a whole, it's flawed logic in a lot of ways. and we just sort of throw it out there all the time.

I wonder if there some extensive work or research done into whether or not this holds truth and if so how much. I would have to think having something in a better data region source would definitely help b/c it's just giving more data for the models to work with and if the data going into the models and not really flawed it should really help with the evolution of the models as they go into the medium range. If you have pieces of energy in a location that isn't really data rich and the limited data going into the models is on the flawed side things are going to be screwed up from initialization. Just my two cents.

[mattb65]

You can't win this battle. There are years of interactions and context at play here. But it's a welcoming group. Just kick back, find your sense of humor and enjoy the banter. It's all good.

Appreciate the warm welcome from a fellow 02118 ZIP

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah..this just helps prove the point that the GFS actually causes more problems in making a forecast than it offers guidance. If we could only get rid of that model..forecast accuracy would go up tenfold. Esp. from the vast coningent of TV mets who simply rip and read it

How many people are gonna tune in tonight to their local stations and see talk of a big snowstorm coming this weekend.? Then when tomorrow's 12 z GFS has it hitting Bermuda they'll tune in again to sunny and cold forecasts this weekend

[weathafella]

Euro gives me nary a flake through D10....

[ORH_wxman]

Will, How many more runs before we either write this one off or have a storm? Thurs 12Z? Thanks

If the Euro gets worse looking between now and 12z Thursday, then its probably over. If it stays status quo, probably not good, but it would still be a shade early to write it off at 72h out considering its scraping the coast with some qpf....obviously we'd like to see it inch west run by run between now and Thurs.

I do feel pretty optimistic about this system though. The ensemble mean was basically matching the OP run of the Euro with some isobar bulging westward.

[Damage In Tolland]

If the Euro gets worse looking between now and 12z Thursday, then its probably over. If it stays status quo, probably not good, but it would still be a shade early to write it off at 72h out considering its scraping the coast with some qpf....obviously we'd like to see it inch west run by run between now and Thurs.

I do feel pretty optimistic about this system though. The ensemble mean was basically matching the OP run of the Euro with some isobar bulging westward.

new rule.

Schwartz Synoptic Six

[weathafella]

I'm annoyed about the doctor's refusal to change much past 3 runs....

[Tropopause_Fold]

I wonder if there some extensive work or research done into whether or not this holds truth and if so how much. I would have to think having something in a better data region source would definitely help b/c it's just giving more data for the models to work with and if the data going into the models and not really flawed it should really help with the evolution of the models as they go into the medium range. If you have pieces of energy in a location that isn't really data rich and the limited data going into the models is on the flawed side things are going to be screwed up from initialization. Just my two cents.

there is some research - sam made a thread about it.

i read the white picket fence article he posted. it definitely shows there is validity to the argument (that is, if you increased the number of points)...but we are talking scales and reality here.

[Typhoon Tip]

Violently disagree until your neck snaps from shaking you...southern stream is stronger this run..we need help from the northern stream to get this to come up

That's not how it works. The southern stream being deep ...or in this case NOT deep enough, needs to induce the collapse south of the PV.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It just would seem that having the Nogaps, which is usually progressive, being a solid hit, would have me think this comes a bit closer to the coast. Obviously, I could be wrong.

[weatherwiz]

there is some research - sam made a thread about it.

i read the white picket fence article he posted. it definitely shows there is validity to the argument (that is, if you increased the number of points)...but we are talking scales and reality here.

I'll have to go take a look...sounds real interesting.

[Zeus]

I don't have a degree in meteorology but an active interest so I generally don't post since I wouldn't add any substance to the discussion. I think my role here is more observer and so I refrain from cluttering up the posts and padding my post count.

From following the recent threats basically I've noticed 95% of your posts are trolling someone or nay-saying about a particular threat without providing any facts or opinions to support your position. If you have a counter opinion on a particular threat why not expand on your opinion rather than just being flat negative. I could give my opinion on this threat but it wouldn't be more than just repeating the gestalt of what most are saying - namely that this system comes down to timing and interaction between northern and southern streams... but as you point out when other people post that's just stating the obvious so I choose not to post it.

Wow, I really never looked at it this way!

Surely, you are voicing the opinion of the masses; none of these folks who do a good bit of joking on their own would ever take my responses as tongue-in-cheek or with a grain of salt.

It's not as if I've said numerous times previously that I almost always have a hard time getting excited for a storm when there is the absence of my singular favorite feature for winter storms: a cold high pressure locked in to our north.

In no way whatsoever do I fully recognize that there is a good bit of confluence from what is projected as either a singular, elongated polar vortex or two conjoined ones, but yet favor the more classic setup in order to really start picking at the details, especially as far out as this is, because even though this scenario seems to be a battle of out-to-sea versus cutting north, an optimum solution seems fairly unlikely for most, enough so that perhaps it's too soon to be tossing around comments of certainty.

So, when I see my comrades squawk about how "this one is coming!" saying just that and not much else, I don't hesitate to toss in my two cents tempering enthusiasm with the opposing opinion with an equal amount of support, not for the sake of not only parity but avoiding redundancy, but just because I like being a total jerk.

It might strike one as odd that my "nay-saying" is oft if not always in direct response to posts wherein posters have displayed an opinion without giving any realistic support for it, and that type of onslaught is essentially what you're making an attempt to do here, the only difference is that when I take my swipes, the posters I'm playfully jabbing at are displaying optimism -- many of them would not hesitate to admit it -- whereas I'm taking a more skeptic stance (unofficially regarded as pure, unadulterated evil by many snowhounds). But clearly, you have a valid point here.

Great work shedding light on this; given the brilliant analysis you've shown, perhaps it's for the best you don't post about the weather after all.

[weathafella]

It just would seem that having the Nogaps, which is usually progressive, being a solid hit, would have me think this comes a bit closer to the coast. Obviously, I could be wrong.

FWIW nogaps gives us no qpf. Zilch.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm annoyed about the doctor's refusal to change much past 3 runs....

today's run wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't so strung out.

[moneypitmike]

Yeah there is definitely still room to get this to phase...I mean even just a shade sooner, you probably see this hook pretty good to the north and hit our area pretty hard. I agree about being more concerned for a whiff at this point than something like a HV runner. Though I wouldn't discount a HV runner yet, but I think that type of solution is getting slowly but surely more unlikely as we get closer. We are getting inside the 120 hour mark on the Euro now and it hasn't really shown much of a chance it ripping this west of us...at all.

I might be off on this, but I think if we got a HV track from this, we'd do a lot better with the front end than we did this past weekend. Far from ideal, but that would bring more of SNE into the game than a cape grazer (congrats though, Phil).

16.6/6

[dryslot]

If the Euro gets worse looking between now and 12z Thursday, then its probably over. If it stays status quo, probably not good, but it would still be a shade early to write it off at 72h out considering its scraping the coast with some qpf....obviously we'd like to see it inch west run by run between now and Thurs.

I do feel pretty optimistic about this system though. The ensemble mean was basically matching the OP run of the Euro with some isobar bulging westward.

Ok, Thats what i had thought, Even slight west shifts would be encouraging but another hit east and i think this one goes by the boards, Is it better that the lead wave stays flatter and weaker as to leave the 2nd wave more room to amplify? Or does it just come down to earlier phasing to get the vort pulled north sooner?

[Baroclinic Zone]

FWIW nogaps gives us no qpf. Zilch.

It drops something Jerry. And it came waaaay west from yesterday.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I might be off on this, but I think if we got a HV track from this, we'd do a lot better with the front end than we did this past weekend. Far from ideal, but that would bring more of SNE into the game than a cape grazer (congrats though, Phil).

16.6/6

Hmmm, I'll take the ots option over another rain event.

That last one not only ruined a decent start to the VT ski season but it also screwed up the pond/lake ice - hopefully not for too long.

The several inches of clear, strong, black ice that was out there has now turned to dangerous, brittle, white honeycombed crap on the ponds around here.

[dryslot]

I might be off on this, but I think if we got a HV track from this, we'd do a lot better with the front end than we did this past weekend. Far from ideal, but that would bring more of SNE into the game than a cape grazer (congrats though, Phil).

16.6/6

I am going to go out on a limb and say that we are having a hard time to even budge this storm left that to get it to an HV track is going to be a real reach frome here on out, But i see what your saying, There would be more potential for snow s on the front end before the changeover......

[mahk_webstah]

You can't win this battle. There are years of interactions and context at play here. But it's a welcoming group. Just kick back, find your sense of humor and enjoy the banter. It's all good.

triple ditto

[Typhoon Tip]

It just would seem that having the Nogaps, which is usually progressive, being a solid hit, would have me think this comes a bit closer to the coast. Obviously, I could be wrong.

not actually a bad way of thinking about things. Harv and I used to discuss this sort of thing, when a model of a given type over-comes its own bias in order to show an outlier - guess what?

not always, but sometimes those ignored solution come back to really haunt.

[dryslot]

It drops something Jerry. And it came waaaay west from yesterday.

You wouldn't have yesterdays as a comparison would you?

[weathafella]

It drops something Jerry. And it came waaaay west from yesterday.

Bob...you posted yesterday's earlier in the thread.

Here it is:

Yesterday 12Z:

Today's 12Z:

[moneypitmike]

I am going to go out on a limb and say that we are having a hard time to even budge this storm left that to get it to an HV track is going to be a real reach frome here on out, But i see what your saying, There would be more potential for snow s on the front end before the changeover......

I don't expect anything that far west either--I was adding a comment in response to Will's post.

Agree Chris wrt ski areas and the now-less-than-ideal ice situation, but I'll take a good front end snow that becomes a dense base after a change over just a cold/dry scenario. That said, I think the latter idea is what's shaping up at the moment. Hopefuly that'll change as we get closer.

16.8/6

[weathafella]

Meanwhile...I"m on this call and one of my projects is delayed due to staffing issues. I used the term "delayed but not denied". They loved it. Thank you JB.

[Damage In Tolland]

It drops something Jerry. And it came waaaay west from yesterday.

SS Six westward bending isobars

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bob...you posted yesterday's earlier in the thread.

Here it is:

Yesterday 12Z:

Today's 12Z:

Yes I posted yesterday's 12z run. I fixed that. I am not using that as my guide I just posted today's 12z run that shows QPF over SE MA at 144h. Last nights 00z run was like 1000 miles offshore and to have today's 12z run come like 900 miles west is a flag imo.

edit: Jerry, it also looks better than yesterdays 12z run. It's deeper and has more of a hook in it. Can't say it's correct, but it looks even west of yesterday's 12z run.

[weathafella]

Yes I posted yesterday's 12z run. I fixed that. I am not using that as my guide I just posted today's 12z run that shows QPF over SE MA at 144h. Last nights 00z run was like 1000 miles offshore and to have today's 12z run come like 900 miles west is a flag imo.

Ahhh...apples to oranges. I didn't even look at 0Z! Thanks.