D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looks like a Cape Cod scraper at 120 hours.

yeah looks like a couple/few inches...ACK might do a bit better if it's all frozen.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro doesn't split the Quebec Vortex like the GFS does. The result is no downstream ridging and not as much digging of the southern wave.

I think the GFS depiction of doing it almost entirely with the southern stream is a load of hogwash. We are going to have to try and get this to phase with a piece of that PV north of us like the Euro is trying to do....but just a shade late at this juncture. ECMWF has been very consistent with this idea and its probably correct over the GFS.

Now we just need the Euro to phase it a slight bit sooner and we're in business.

[Damage In Tolland]

Gibbs said it is a shade west of 00z run and trend still our friend..but we need help from northern stream

[weatherwiz]

How late of a phase is it on the euro? Does it still appear as if there is time to get phasing to occur in our favor?

[Cold Miser]

From the latest "Hazardous Weather Outlook":

". . . THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A WINTER STORM AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE STORM COULD JUST AS EASILY PASS

HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA."

Blah, blah, blah. So. . . what does early January look like?

[dryslot]

Euro may be latching on to its final solution. Might be just a grazer.

Dr No is Dr Maybe, Only will take about 150 miles west to be a decent hit, An earlier phase and its game on......

[Tropopause_Fold]

How late of a phase is it on the euro? Does it still appear as if there is time to get phasing to occur in our favor?

there's definitely still some room for a westward shift - not a huge one unless the euro has some major issues. we'll just need things to come together a bit faster.

however, think the concern is that it's east, not west.

[Damage In Tolland]

From the latest "Hazardous Weather Outlook":

". . . THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A WINTER STORM AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE STORM COULD JUST AS EASILY PASS

HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA."

Blah, blah, blah. So. . . what does early January look like?

[Damage In Tolland]

It's time to utilize the Schwartz Synoptic Seven rule..Nogaps west and north means storm is coming. Will always uses that rule for forecasting winter storms.

[MaineJayhawk]

Dr No is Dr Maybe, Only will take about 150 miles west to be a decent hit, An earlier phase and its game on......

Will be looking for that. If it holds serve with this solution at 0z, that consistency will be hard to ignore. Still, small changes hold large implications.

[cpickett79]

there's definitely still some room for a westward shift - not a huge one unless the euro has some major issues. we'll just need things to come together a bit faster.

however, think the concern is that it's east, not west.

euro had all weenies hopes in it's hand .....and crushed most of them.....almost

like to see ensembles.......for a kick save.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think the GFS depiction of doing it almost entirely with the southern stream is a load of hogwash. We are going to have to try and get this to phase with a piece of that PV north of us like the Euro is trying to do....but just a shade late at this juncture. ECMWF has been very consistent with this idea and its probably correct over the GFS.

Now we just need the Euro to phase it a slight bit sooner and we're in business.

Something's fishy about that run ..sure.

It also doesn't sit well with me that the ECM nailed the last event at this type of time lead where the GFS was trying to run a perfect snowy nor-easter our way.

[Cold Miser]

. . . Yeah, I know. I'm trying to stay positive, but it's too easy to get frustrated.

[WeatherX]

Here's the UKM for poops and giggles....

[ORH_wxman]

there's definitely still some room for a westward shift - not a huge one unless the euro has some major issues. we'll just need things to come together a bit faster.

however, think the concern is that it's east, not west.

Yeah there is definitely still room to get this to phase...I mean even just a shade sooner, you probably see this hook pretty good to the north and hit our area pretty hard. I agree about being more concerned for a whiff at this point than something like a HV runner. Though I wouldn't discount a HV runner yet, but I think that type of solution is getting slowly but surely more unlikely as we get closer. We are getting inside the 120 hour mark on the Euro now and it hasn't really shown much of a chance it ripping this west of us...at all.

[weatherwiz]

there's definitely still some room for a westward shift - not a huge one unless the euro has some major issues. we'll just need things to come together a bit faster.

however, think the concern is that it's east, not west.

Well luckily there is still some time to work things out, and considering the two pieces of energy at play aren't even in the US yet it's way too early to give up hope. Models usually have a tough time with timing of s/w's, especially when you have a fairly strong jet. Well have a much better idea on how the timing may play out once they get into a more data rich location which won't be for a few more days at least.

[dryslot]

It's time to utilize the Schwartz Synoptic Seven rule..Nogaps west and north means storm is coming. Will always uses that rule for forecasting winter storms.

If this one ends up whiffing us after all these cutters, Rope and chair sales will be very high and your commissions will be as well........

[Damage In Tolland]

Well luckily there is still some time to work things out, and considering the two pieces of energy at play aren't even in the US yet it's way too early to give up hope. Models usually have a tough time with timing of s/w's, especially when you have a fairly strong jet. Well have a much better idea on how the timing may play out once they get into a more data rich location which won't be for a few more days at least.

Phil hates when people say that. Says there's little merit to it

[cpickett79]

It's time to utilize the Schwartz Synoptic Seven rule..Nogaps west and north means storm is coming. Will always uses that rule for forecasting winter storms.

yes i've heard about that. good call

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Track looks almost identical to this mornings 00z run run.

[Damage In Tolland]

If this one ends up whiffing us after all these cutters, Rope and chair sales will be very high and your commissions will be as well........

As long as Will's rule works it's all we need to bank on right now

[ORH_wxman]

It's time to utilize the Schwartz Synoptic Seven rule..Nogaps west and north means storm is coming. Will always uses that rule for forecasting winter storms.

No at this lead time, lol.

[mattb65]

If you got it, flaunt it.

I cannot help but make note of the fact that this is, apparently, your first and only post.

That being the case, I would like to point out that the number of posts I've made which are not trolling, but rather, directly related to the very pithy subject at hand of weather, is infinitely larger than the number of posts you've made doing anything other than question me.

Welcome to the board!

What do you think of the unfolding situation?

I don't have a degree in meteorology but an active interest so I generally don't post since I wouldn't add any substance to the discussion. I think my role here is more observer and so I refrain from cluttering up the posts and padding my post count.

From following the recent threats basically I've noticed 95% of your posts are trolling someone or nay-saying about a particular threat without providing any facts or opinions to support your position. If you have a counter opinion on a particular threat why not expand on your opinion rather than just being flat negative. I could give my opinion on this threat but it wouldn't be more than just repeating the gestalt of what most are saying - namely that this system comes down to timing and interaction between northern and southern streams... but as you point out when other people post that's just stating the obvious so I choose not to post it.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah there is definitely still room to get this to phase...I mean even just a shade sooner, you probably see this hook pretty good to the north and hit our area pretty hard. I agree about being more concerned for a whiff at this point than something like a HV runner. Though I wouldn't discount a HV runner yet, but I think that type of solution is getting slowly but surely more unlikely as we get closer. We are getting inside the 120 hour mark on the Euro now and it hasn't really shown much of a chance it ripping this west of us...at all.

I don't think we will see anything track west of us...unless something really drastic changed within the pattern but for the most part it's probably a fish storm or we get some snow.

As for the bolded...exactly why I'm not even close to giving up...all we need is this thing to phase just a little bit sooner than what some of the models are calling for and giving the timeframe that is almost certainly doable.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ...I'd have to go ahead and say as objectively as I can that this run of the Euro is grab neck, hold head in postion, COC back, and keel forth with face smack right deliberatley AT the smiles left in the wake of the enthusiast frienldy 12z GFS. It's so bad of a face smack, that it transcends the local season temporality and reaches into the dark din of internal rage against the odd snow drought to where one can no longer imagine ANY scenario where it can ever snow - Stockholm Syndrome.

The Euro is fast becoming the snow nazi in my mind: "NoooOOOOOOooo snow for you - ONE YEAR!"

hahaaa. Oh well.. I guess at D5 it can change...but it seems what the real culprit here is the southern stream is weaker in this run than the GFS, or the runs from yesterday for that matter. The Canadian concurred. Tough call.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Phil hates when people say that. Says there's little merit to it

i think "little merit" is a good way to say it.

i wouldn't argue it has no bearing on the situation but as a whole, it's flawed logic in a lot of ways. and we just sort of throw it out there all the time.

[dryslot]

No at this lead time, lol.

Will, How many more runs before we either write this one off or have a storm? Thurs 12Z? Thanks

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah ...I'd have to go ahead and say as objectively as I can that this run of the Euro is grab neck, hold head in postion, COC back, and keel forth with face smack right deliberatley AT the smiles left in the wake of the enthusiast frienldy 12z GFS. It's so bad of a face smack, that it transcends the local season temporality and reaches into the dark din of internal rage against the odd snow drought to where one can no longer imagine ANY scenario where it can ever snow - Stockholm Syndrome.

The Euro is fast becoming the snow nazi in my mind: "NoooOOOOOOooo snow for you - ONE YEAR!"

hahaaa. Oh well.. I guess at D5 it can change...but it seems what the real culprit here is the southern stream is weaker in this run than the GFS, or the runs from yesterday for that matter. The Canadian concurred. Tough call.

Violently disagree until your neck snaps from shaking you...southern stream is stronger this run..we need help from the northern stream to get this to come up

[hooralph]

I don't have a degree in meteorology but an active interest so I generally don't post since I wouldn't add any substance to the discussion. I think my role here is more observer and so I refrain from cluttering up the posts and padding my post count.

From following the recent threats basically I've noticed 95% of your posts are trolling someone or nay-saying about a particular threat without providing any facts or opinions to support your position. If you have a counter opinion on a particular threat why not expand on your opinion rather than just being flat negative. I could give my opinion on this threat but it wouldn't be more than just repeating the gestalt of what most are saying - namely that this system comes down to timing and interaction between northern and southern streams... but as you point out when other people post that's just stating the obvious so I choose not to post it.

You can't win this battle. There are years of interactions and context at play here. But it's a welcoming group. Just kick back, find your sense of humor and enjoy the banter. It's all good.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Violently disagree until your neck snaps from shaking you...southern stream is stronger this run..we need help from the northern stream to get this to come up

well he's comparing it to the GFS....