weatherMA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't know how far east they have done this, but as of this morning, the ZFP for God's country no longer has any reference to snow over the weekend. 13.4/9, sn- same here Plenty of time to bring it west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The only person who should be tipping a chair right now is Brian Cashman. We've seen this countless times in the past...the models are too far east in the D5/D6 wasteland only to bring it back at D3/D4. Yeah past history alone says this hugs the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 EDIT: 06Z has come west a few ticks and gives the Cape a pat on the back as it slides by. I'm liking the 6Z. Verbatim it shows us getting around .5 QPF, then about 3 days of possible OES for another .1 or .2. Not bad for this little salty sand spit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Some light sugar coming down. All is good with the world. My first coating of the year....car covered! Nice suprise, as I hadn't expected anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 My first coating of the year....car covered! Nice suprise, as I hadn't expected anything. Yeah. Surprise here also. Light OES dusting from the SW of all directions. Rare for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah past history alone says this hugs the coast Valentines' Day '07 was a whiff on so many model runs only to come back west at D4. Hopefully we get something similar this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Valentines' Day '07 was a whiff on so many model runs only to come back west at D4. Hopefully we get something similar this time. That would be so nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That would be so nice. I'm not necessarily talking about a similar event, but more a similar modeling pattern. Hopefully I don't come back to mass suicides after the 12z runs. Weather weenies throwing themselves in front of cars on Rt. 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Valentines' Day '07 was a whiff on so many model runs only to come back west at D4. Hopefully we get something similar this time. That event was a 1978 esc blizzard until about 48 hrs out for me.....ended up 8" of snow\sleet, which was better than most of sne did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Valentines' Day '07 was a whiff on so many model runs only to come back west at D4. Hopefully we get something similar this time. Yes, then it kept charging west until it was rammed up our ass, leaving that 96 hour prog as nothing but a bitter memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Won't take much of a shift west to make this a very nice xmas preasant........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 That event was a 1978 esc blizzard until about 48 hrs out for me.....ended up 8" of snow\sleet, which was better than most of sne did. But I think that bolsters his point in that it hugged in closer to contaminate with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 But I think that bolsters his point in that it hugged in closer to contaminate with sleet. I'm pretty happy about the current modeled position...I'd like to begin to see it tick back west in the next 2 days, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ground is covered, incredible potential the next two weeks, winter is alive and well in southern new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm pretty happy about the current modeled position...I'd like to begin to see it tick back west in the next 2 days, however. Well, I think today would be the day we see this thing start to hone in on a track one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well, I think today would be the day we see this thing start to hone in on a track one way or the other. If it holds as 0Z, then I'd give it another day or 2. If it trends east, that's significant and a dampener. Same with west with opposite conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If it holds as 0Z, then I'd give it another day or 2. If it trends east, that's significant and a dampener. Same with west with opposite conclusion. As DT noted...we likely need at least a partial phase with the PV over the Great Lakes to get this thing up here. Southern stream only might work for DC..but not SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 As DT noted...we likely need at least a partial phase with the PV over the Great Lakes to get this thing up here. Southern stream only might work for DC..but not SNE. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z UKMET....bombs away! Now lets get this run to run, model to model...check back Thursday. It's atleast on the "radar" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 who's going to be nervous if we don't get an earlier phase and more westerly solution on the 12z euro? I know people will say "we're days out"...but time is obviously starting to dwindle down. Wait til Thursday to make any assumptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 who's going to be nervous if we don't get an earlier phase and more westerly solution on the 12z euro? I know people will say "we're days out"...but time is obviously starting to dwindle down. Wait til Thursday to make any assumptions? I'd like to see the Euro hold serve or tick a little west. No eastward move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know who I expect modeling to consolidate on a healthy storm that will bring snow from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal mid- and north Atlantic states this weekend. A front runner is coming out and that is complicating matters, but the upper pattern over the weekend is favorable for snow fairly far back and the surface pattern, should correct toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'd like to see the Euro hold serve or tick a little west. No eastward move. Yes, Any shift east i don't think will be a very good sign going forward, Rather see the model hold serve or like you stated even adjust west some...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know who I expect modeling to consolidate on a healthy storm that will bring snow from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal mid- and north Atlantic states this weekend. A front runner is coming out and that is complicating matters, but the upper pattern over the weekend is favorable for snow fairly far back and the surface pattern, should correct toward it. JB........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know who I expect modeling to consolidate on a healthy storm that will bring snow from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal mid- and north Atlantic states this weekend. A front runner is coming out and that is complicating matters, but the upper pattern over the weekend is favorable for snow fairly far back and the surface pattern, should correct toward it. By 'north Atlantic states', does he mean New England? A little ambiguous with the terminology I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 By 'north Atlantic states', does he mean New England? A little ambiguous with the terminology I see. Yeah that includes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 By 'north Atlantic states', does he mean New England? A little ambiguous with the terminology I see. Well are we a Middle or South Atlantic State? Me thinks not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well are we a Middle or South Atlantic State? Me thinks not. No need for capitalization there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 By 'north Atlantic states', does he mean New England? A little ambiguous with the terminology I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 FWIW, at 00Z Saturday, the 12z NAM looks much better at 500h compared to the 6z GFS. The southern stream is more amplified and about to phase with the great lakes energy diving down towards IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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