D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

[earthlight]

That's the flattest depiction ive seen of the shortwave in the Southern US in a few days on any model

[ORH_wxman]

Its going to be somewhat SE of the 12z run, probably scraping Cape Cod.

[earthlight]

Its going to be somewhat SE of the 12z run, probably scraping Cape Cod.

I knew it wasn't good earlier in the run at like 54-72 hours when the shortwave was way east of the GFS depiction and less amplified. Guidance is certainly still split on all of the major features in play.

[CoastalWx]

Its going to be somewhat SE of the 12z run, probably scraping Cape Cod.

Yeah pretty flat.

[earthlight]

We can always hope the 72 hr Ukie is on to something---there is virtually no other model that has anything similar to this depiction.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah pretty flat.

Looks like it gets measurable back to BOS and Cape Cod with a couple inches....you can certainly see how fine the line is between this ripping almost due north along the coast vs barely scraping the area.

Looping 5H is very telling....picture worht 1000 words.

[earthlight]

Looks like it gets measurable back to BOS and Cape Cod with a couple inches....you can certainly see how fine the line is between this ripping almost due north along the coast vs barely scraping the area.

Looping 5H is very telling....picture worht 1000 words.

We're walking on a very fine line here--I posted in the NYC thread that the Euro is "a few hours" away from tugging this up the coast. This run says something to me given how awful it looked both aloft and at the surface initially--something major is going on that's tucking this thing north, and fast. I don't have access to the vorticity on SV, but does it have the shortwave rolling southeast from Idaho/Montana and then into the trough base? The more amplified models had this feature.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like it gets measurable back to BOS and Cape Cod with a couple inches....you can certainly see how fine the line is between this ripping almost due north along the coast vs barely scraping the area.

Looping 5H is very telling....picture worht 1000 words.

It's got 3 little vorts instead of one nice vort at hr 132. I think if we lost the "noise" of the other vorts, it would be much better. Eh, not horrible for 5-6 days out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

UKMET decides to become a bomb in the gulf of Maine area.. 969 mb

http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1

990 at 120 to 969 at 144

UKMET always becomes a bomb, somewhere.....

[earthlight]

Here's the visual at 120 hours--mighty close. I am encouraged that it went back towards the idea of dropping the entire PV into the broad trough--this idea had been lost for a few days on most models and the full phase wasn't occurring until the shortwave was north of 40 N.

[ORH_wxman]

We're walking on a very fine line here--I posted in the NYC thread that the Euro is "a few hours" away from tugging this up the coast. This run says something to me given how awful it looked both aloft and at the surface initially--something major is going on that's tucking this thing north, and fast. I don't have access to the vorticity on SV, but does it have the shortwave rolling southeast from Idaho/Montana and then into the trough base? The more amplified models had this feature.

You have the southern stream s/w in Texas at 84h and the piece it eventually tries to phase with at the last second is the s/w in NE Montana at the same hour (84)....but you can see that the "shortwave" in Montana is actually just an extension of the PV...so depending on how deep or shallow that is and the timing, you can certainly get a much more amplified solution.

However, I'll say this, the recent trend on 00z made the PV core north of New England is to hold tougher for longer, so that is probably shifting our envelope of solutions eastward....but certainly leaving everything on the table from a blizzard to a whiff to mixing/changeover issues....however, the latter is probably slowly but surely becoming less of a threat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's got 3 little vorts instead of one nice vort at hr 132. I think if we lost the "noise" of the other vorts, it would be much better. Eh, not horrible for 5-6 days out.

The GFS has 2 now, as well...guidance maybe trending toward a "too many cooks in the kitchen" scenario.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You have the southern stream s/w in Texas at 84h and the piece it eventually tries to phase with at the last second is the s/w in NE Montana at the same hour (84)....but you can see that the "shortwave" in Montana is actually just an extension of the PV...so depending on how deep or shallow that is and the timing, you can certainly get a much more amplified solution.

However, I'll say this, the recent trend on 00z made the PV core north of New England is to hold tougher for longer, so that is probably shifting our envelope of solutions eastward....but certainly leaving everything on the table from a blizzard to a whiff to mixing/changeover issues....however, the latter is probably slowly but surely becoming less of a threat.

Good news.....my meltdown scenario is fading....Kev ftl.

[dendrite]

UKMET always becomes a bomb, somewhere.....

Congrats

[CoastalWx]

You have the southern stream s/w in Texas at 84h and the piece it eventually tries to phase with at the last second is the s/w in NE Montana at the same hour (84)....but you can see that the "shortwave" in Montana is actually just an extension of the PV...so depending on how deep or shallow that is and the timing, you can certainly get a much more amplified solution.

However, I'll say this, the recent trend on 00z made the PV core north of New England is to hold tougher for longer, so that is probably shifting our envelope of solutions eastward....but certainly leaving everything on the table from a blizzard to a whiff to mixing/changeover issues....however, the latter is probably slowly but surely becoming less of a threat.

Like John said, I do like how, with the help of the shortwave from MT, that it tries to phase and get the whole PV involved..just a little too late.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Outter cape gets an inch.

The 00z EURO has shifted the sensible wx that the 12z run gave me to Chatham.

[earthlight]

Like John said, I do like how, with the help of the shortwave from MT, that it tries to phase and get the whole PV involved..just a little too late.

Interesting how the GFS got this thing up the coast in a completely different manner. It was so initially deep with the shortwave that when the energy came through MT into the Plains, the trough just deepened very rapidly. If not for the confluence over New England on the 00z OP GFS, many people up and down the east coast would probably be foaming at the mouth.

[CoastalWx]

Interesting how the GFS got this thing up the coast in a completely different manner. It was so initially deep with the shortwave that when the energy came through MT into the Plains, the trough just deepened very rapidly. If not for the confluence over New England on the 00z OP GFS, many people up and down the east coast would probably be foaming at the mouth.

Yeah and it shows the the different options on the table too. A powerful southern stream s/w is one way. Should be interesting tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Trending toward and ene threat at the moment.

[A-L-E-X]

Trending toward and ene threat at the moment.

No reason to lose hope... according to DT, the model has the placement wrong and the precip should be much closer to the coast.  With the wide range of solutions on the table, anything is still possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No reason to lose hope... according to DT, the model has the placement wrong and the precip should be much closer to the coast. With the wide range of solutions on the table, anything is still possible.

If you think about my perspective in this, that was not a pessimistic post.

Will, is DT right and why....

[A-L-E-X]

If you think about my perspective in this, that was not a pessimistic post.

oh yea sorry about that lol-- I was thinking southeastern new england when I read that.

[Damage In Tolland]

This looks like one of these deals that ends up looking like a whiff until about 3-4 days before on the models. Sounds like Euro ensembles are closer in

[Damage In Tolland]

looking at the 0z euro run the trough has phase at 120 hrs and the flow is NOT wsw-ene but sw to NE

in other words the flow seems like it should bring the low up the coast much closer

Good news

[moneypitmike]

I'm bummed by what seems a trend among all the models to be shifting SE (save the UK--long live the Queen).. To be sure, it's still several days out and things can change. I'd rather have the models prsenting a range of possibilities rather than the unanimity to be OTS.

As will said, the "mix scenario" is becoming less likely. That bodes for possible congrats to you folks in eastern areas (maybe central) and envy among those in God's country. That said, I'm eager to see the 12z runs.

14.1/9

EDIT: 06Z has come west a few ticks and gives the Cape a pat on the back as it slides by.

[MaineJayhawk]

I'm liking the placement of the 6z GFS. Would like to see the Euro slide west by its 0z run tonight. Feeling good for at least a glancing shot by this.

[weathafella]

Some light sugar coming down. All is good with the world.

[moneypitmike]

I don't know how far east they have done this, but as of this morning, the ZFP for God's country no longer has any reference to snow over the weekend.

13.4/9, sn-

[Alpha5]

Model consensus is for a storm 50-100 miles away from being a SECS

[DomNH]

The only person who should be tipping a chair right now is Brian Cashman. We've seen this countless times in the past...the models are too far east in the D5/D6 wasteland only to bring it back at D3/D4.