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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 1:11 AM, weathafella said:

I'll tell you what folks. GFS has 12/31/00 written all over it including cp taint and significant rain as the predominant despite a favorable track. The lack of hp is haunting me.

With that track, no chance BOS goes to rain...sfc low tracks so that the wind starts at like 040 and then goes more northerly from there. 12/30/00 tracked over SE MA.

If we start getting a Canal Cutter, then you should be spooked.

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weathafella

weathafella

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:17 AM, ORH_wxman said:

With that track, no chance BOS goes to rain...sfc low tracks so that the wind starts at like 040 and then goes more northerly from there. 12/30/00 tracked over SE MA.

If we start getting a Canal Cutter, then you should be spooked.

Thanks Will. That 12/30/00 event is among my bitterest pills and I'm scarred.....

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:14 AM, weathafella said:

All I"m saying is if it verified, I may be fooked.

Jerry,

you won't have anything to worry about in this with antecedent cold signal being deep and a pressure gradient strong enough to keep more N component undercutting what is probable to become a 850mb level ccb jet. Big highs are always good, but not always necessary.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:11 AM, weathafella said:

I'll tell you what folks. GFS has 12/31/00 written all over it including cp taint and significant rain as the predominant despite a favorable track. The lack of hp is haunting me.

Well verbatim there is marine taint at the start, GFS clown maps show that but there also is a cold feed from a 1016 sandwiched in between the 50/50 and the PV. Just saying, this would have to bisect the Cape to rain you, now sleet is another story.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:19 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Jerry,

you won't have anything to worry about in this with antecedent cold signal being deep and a pressure gradient strong enough to keep more N component undercutting what is probable to become a 850mb level ccb jet. Big highs are always good, but not always necessary.

PD 1

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:29 AM, ARLMAWX said:

I would think that any track in or around BM should be a red flag especailly with such strong a cyclone. I know several other variables come into play... BUT... the haba is still quite warm. A month from now I would feel safer. JMO

If this storm tracks over/near the BM, very few will have to worry about ptype as the airmass over us will be suitable just as long as you keep a 040/050 type wind. Only if it tracks directly over it and its hooking so violently NW that it tracks into SNE from there...but that type of solution is extreme and unlikely.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:31 AM, ORH_wxman said:

If this storm tracks over/near the BM, very few will have to worry about ptype as the airmass over us will be suitable just as long as you keep a 040/050 type wind. Only if it tracks directly over it and its hooking so violently NW that it tracks into SNE from there...but that type of solution is extreme and unlikely.

That's the track I'm sure interior NNE ski areas are asking Santa to bring.

:snowman:

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dendrite

dendrite

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:34 AM, Happy Valley said:

That's the track I'm sure interior NNE ski areas are asking Santa to bring.

:snowman:

No thanks on a retrograding track NWward into SNE. Maine and NH would probably just get flooded with maritime air. A regular old coastal is fine with me. The mtns can get a bit of synoptic and then more post-storm upslope.
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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:20 AM, CT Blizz said:

Pretty impressive cold this month.. It took 12 full months but, safe to say ...the elephant is about to die at all 4 major sites in SNE

post-492-0-42491900-1292376045.png

I know I should have went warmer than normal for December for extreme NNE...that's what they usually end up being in -NAO's.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:41 AM, Ginx said:

Remember you heard it here first.

I've talked to our main guy about the pattern, and even he stated the questions about the Nina's of yesterday and the nao. I've also talked to Joe D'Aleo as well. Joe was laughed at some years ago for bringing up solar, and now look at what's happening. Some say he is biased, but the guy brings a lot to the table.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 12/15/2010 at 1:39 AM, CoastalWx said:

I've been fortunate to hear some of the guys interpretations of the patterns.

I talked with Gibbs for awhile today. He said there is not 1 met that can explain what is happening this month in regards to the extreme blocking and -AO. He said noone can offer a legit explanation as to why. He is baffled. Said he doesn't buy just compositing the 1950's. It's really bothering him how noone can offer a good explanation

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