ChrisM Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 10:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Ensembles still 200 miles or so se of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 10:40 PM, mattb65 said: Obligatory... on a side note, the sierras are going to get pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 10:57 PM, dendrite said: Some people in CT are worried about rain though. Well I still wouldn't rule out a potential monster phase that rips this up the HV or CT Valley...but I think the chances of that happening have been steadily fading over the past 36-48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So actually we saw both 18z op and ens. go east if you think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:01 PM, CT Blizz said: So actually we saw both 18z op and ens. go east if you think about it what's your thoughts right now rev kev? you likin this in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:01 PM, CT Blizz said: So actually we saw both 18z op and ens. go east if you think about it There is still probably and open wave or two on the ensembles that skew the mean at this range. The 18z op was certainly not east of the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:02 PM, NW CONNECTICUT said: what's your thoughts right now rev kev? you likin this in general? Whether you care or not, I'm liking this one alot. I'd say this is our longest sustained legitimate threat of the season. The ensembles have been better then the op in some cases and it leads me to believe that at the very least interior SNE is going to get pounded one way or another. A little early for a lock in.. but I think New England will see substantial snow next weekend.. (notice how I kept out where) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: Well I still wouldn't rule out a potential monster phase that rips this up the HV or CT Valley...but I think the chances of that happening have been steadily fading over the past 36-48 hours or so. Can't see an inland runner out of this. I think we got a MECS, a scraper, or an OTS Taking a look at the GFS ensembles, not feeling the greatest right now. Tough to bet against the GEFS, euro, and canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:01 PM, CT Blizz said: So actually we saw both 18z op and ens. go east if you think about it Even if you don't think about it, it still happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wait to see the individual members before debbie downing lol...I just looked and the 12z ensembles had like 4-5 inland cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:13 PM, DomNH said: Wait to see the individual members before debbie downing lol...I just looked and the 12z ensembles had like 4-5 inland cutters. All over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 10:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: 18z GFS ensemble mean is southeast of the 12z run...actually quite a bit southeast. It probably got rid of its Hudson Valley cutters. Looks like it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like it did. It also has some pretty far east to....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 10:49 PM, powderfreak said: 18z GFS is like two and a half feet of snow for you, lol. Massive synoptic moisture, plus long duration NE upsloping flow into the east slopes... jesus h LOL, that would be very nice. Hopefully we'll see the Euro cave toward the 18z GFS with the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:26 PM, Dryslot said: It also has some pretty far east to....... Yes it does. If the Euro stays status quo tonight, this will be possibly morphing into an eastern New England threat...too early to call it that yet, but we'll need to start seeing some guidance go more bullish to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:26 PM, ski MRG said: LOL, that would be very nice. Hopefully we'll see the Euro cave toward the 18z GFS with the 00z run. It is going to have to soon or we can wave at it as it goes by.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes it does. If the Euro stays status quo tonight, this will be possibly morphing into an eastern New England threat...too early to call it that yet, but we'll need to start seeing some guidance go more bullish to the west. Yeah, All these other models are fun to look at and raises hopes but, If we can't get the Euro onboard thats all it will be for entertainment purposes only......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:29 PM, Dryslot said: It is going to have to soon or we can wave at it as it goes by.............. Last winter we all wanted to live at 500mb. This winter we all want to live at day 6 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:29 PM, Dryslot said: It is going to have to soon or we can wave at it as it goes by.............. Well, I think it's pretty well documented that when the 18zGFS shows a major hit the Euro typically latches on to the idea eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:34 PM, ski MRG said: Well, I think it's pretty well documented that when the 18zGFS shows a major hit the Euro typically latches on to the idea eventually. Yeah lots of research on that. 18z GFS dominates the Euro in the case of medium term major northeast blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Its almost like most are trying every which way to see how this could fail. I am simply enjoying the chase, looking forward to some snow this weekend. nam and ukmet dgex and nogaps all going west, euro holds serve or a tick west, and gfs delivers another blockbuster but gefs go east..........its fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 My purely gut feeling is still that the Euro goes a little west tonight. I suppose you could argue that the UKMET/GFS (NAM/DGEX and NOGAPS to lesser extents) having a bomb up the coast and the 12z ensemble mean being more amplified than the op would forshadow the move, but from past experience we all know that Dr. No sometimes doesn't give a damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:02 PM, NW CONNECTICUT said: what's your thoughts right now rev kev? you likin this in general? I think all of SNE will see accumulating snow..most likely we'll see a compromise..Euro will obviously come west some and GFS already has started its east shift. I suspect 0z might be well east. I don't think this will be a KU, but a solid snow event for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm just glad we are really beginning to totally discount the idea of an inland runner. I'd rather take something that looks more on the suppressed side now and something with some phasing issues than something that appears to be tracking to the west of us. As Kevin always says, in Nina's everything trends NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 How eerily similar (threat wise, not so much synoptically) to 12/19/09. Day 5-6 storm threat for the Mid Atlantic, only finally trending markedly west in the final 54-72 hours to wallop SNE. And because 12/18/09 I flew from DC-PVD three hours before the snow hit, only to be flying this year on 12/19. 100-120 hours out and needing a 100-200 mile trend west? I wouldn't necessarily be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:39 PM, CT Blizz said: I think all of SNE will see accumulating snow..most likely we'll see a compromise..Euro will obviously come west some and GFS already has started its east shift. I suspect 0z might be well east. I don't think this will be a KU, but a solid snow event for all of us I tentatively agree, but still wouldn't be shocked at a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:26 PM, ski MRG said: LOL, that would be very nice. Hopefully we'll see the Euro cave toward the 18z GFS with the 00z run. You betting the ranch on it? 13.1/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 11:36 PM, wxwatcher91 said: Yeah lots of research on that. 18z GFS dominates the Euro in the case of medium term major northeast blizzards. Tough to argue against fact. On 12/14/2010 at 11:38 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Its almost like most are trying every which way to see how this could fail. I am simply enjoying the chase, looking forward to some snow this weekend. nam and ukmet dgex and nogaps all going west, euro holds serve or a tick west, and gfs delivers another blockbuster but gefs go east..........its fantastic! Yup, it wouldn't be any fun if they were all etched in stone. I like the ones that break positively inside 48 hrs. It doesn't happen very often but it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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