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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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I haven't been paying much attention but glancing through the GFS...and yeah I know all the caveats exist but it hasn't been bad...when I put the date out of 1/22 being the break to crap weather again....some of that came from 10-15 day GFS progs that had been consistently hinting in general we'd lose the cold/snow and it was right.

To me, there's a real opportunity here at least as of right now for more than the 1 week of cold/snow that we've been getting. It's really the first time all winter we could say that there's some really favorable trends. Heck even if the GFS is off by the normal magnitude of cold...

Anyway, I'm encouraged on the outstanding prospects for 6-10 days of cold/snow, and IMO the increasing prospect it may last considerably longer than that. EDIT: Not sure on the snow, if we get cold but get boned on the snow that'd be uncool. Ski areas are going to make their money in February.

Therein lies the risk...I'd rather vault into spring, than edure the better part of a month of cold and dry.

I think we will see our fair share of snow next month, though.

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I would think we should have a 8-15 day window of decent snow potential. Not all of it may be white, but we may have the chance of anything from Clippers to Bomb. I'm pretty intrigued by this change.

Nice snow event for I-95 and points nw on the euro a week from now.

Yeah..Euro has had run after run of a nice snow storm even to the coast for the Feb 2-3 timeframe next week. It's locking in.
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Had to have been 2007. Wasn't there a good storm in like the first couple days of March a few years back then the rest of the month was high pressure?

Last year we had a decent storm with 28-30" falling March 6-7. C'mon just one biggie this season, that's all I ask (we didn't get October).

We did.

Columbus Day Weekend

and then 3 hours into the craziness of the October storm at the Pit.

33.5/33

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I'm actually getting somewhat excited by this upcoming change. It should offer up some opportunities. I think the longevity will be partly based on MJO convection. If it can go into phase 8-1-2, then we may have a 2-3 week period at least. If not, then maybe 8-15 days or so.

I'm planning on 8-15 days and more would be gravy.

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The Canadian ensembles are pretty good looking in the long range too.

What I did notice last night, was that the euro ensembles were quickest to try and break down the PNA signal just a bit. The GEFS and GEM ensembles did not want to do this. We'll have to watch this going forward.

Either way, it looks pretty nice going into the 1st half of Feb..after the 3rd.

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LOL...if only we could get posts like these 48 hours out. The signal is strong for this storm. I'm already more worried about rain then ots and its 168 hours away.

Looks like we go back to snow at 174. SNE gets absolutely destroyed. Looks like 992mb just E of Block Island

Wow, it almost stalls east of the Cape at 180. 998mb..CCB for all of Southern New England.

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The Canadian ensembles are pretty good looking in the long range too.

What I did notice last night, was that the euro ensembles were quickest to try and break down the PNA signal just a bit. The GEFS and GEM ensembles did not want to do this. We'll have to watch this going forward.

Either way, it looks pretty nice going into the 1st half of Feb..after the 3rd.

I thought the EC ens looked the best...

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LOL...if only we could get posts like these 48 hours out. The signal is strong for this storm. I'm already more worried about rain then ots and its 168 hours away.

There may be something nearby, but details are completely worthless at this stage. I'm more focused on trying to see how the long range will plan out. I'm not going to take whatever happens on Friday seriously, until Monday or so.

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The Canadian ensembles are pretty good looking in the long range too.

What I did notice last night, was that the euro ensembles were quickest to try and break down the PNA signal just a bit. The GEFS and GEM ensembles did not want to do this. We'll have to watch this going forward.

Either way, it looks pretty nice going into the 1st half of Feb..after the 3rd.

Torch Mon-Wed next week ahead of fropa?
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There may be something nearby, but details are completely worthless at this stage. I'm more focused on trying to see how the long range will plan out. I'm not going to take whatever happens on Friday seriously, until Monday or so.

Yeah, I realize that it's useless at this stage..but I can't really help but be interested. I was looking at the GEFS and almost every single member have the storm and its 7 days a way...pretty incredible.

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