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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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March 2005 was good here.

Had to have been 2007. Wasn't there a good storm in like the first couple days of March a few years back then the rest of the month was high pressure?

Last year we had a decent storm with 28-30" falling March 6-7. C'mon just one biggie this season, that's all I ask (we didn't get October).

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Feb will be the 3rd month of hope and optimism...and likely the 3rd month that will have about 1 week of winter sandwiched around 3 weeks of stink.

Already signs in the models that the pattern begins to crap out after the "good" period...and the CFS and other long range stuff aren't the best. I really hope we get a good month of winter but we seem to keep going through these periods of intense optimism.

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Feb will be the 3rd month of hope and optimism...and likely the 3rd month that will have about 1 week of winter sandwiched around 3 weeks of stink.

Already signs in the models that the pattern begins to crap out after the "good" period...and the CFS and other long range stuff aren't the best. I really hope we get a good month of winter but we seem to keep going through these periods of intense optimism.

I don't think anyone has intense optimism after this winter. Just the hope we can get some chances of snow, which are possible given the pattern.

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I don't think anyone has intense optimism after this winter. Just the hope we can get some chances of snow, which are possible given the pattern.

Yeah I think most of us are cautious but there's also that optimism that at some point its gotta snow, right? Even the poor winters have a few weeks of decent winter weather so I gotta think at some point things break the right way for the Northeast.

And no one is calling for a very snowy Feb (maybe except for Blizz), just increased threat of chances. I think this season has been made worse by the lack of even storm chances. They are all just FROPAs with a few snow showers here and there, with a lack of decent synoptic storminess. Some seasons it feels like there's a low pressure moving by every 48-72 hours. This winter its like one per week, if that.

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Yeah I think most of us are cautious but there's also that optimism that at some point its gotta snow, right? Even the poor winters have a few weeks of decent winter weather so I gotta think at some point things break the right way for the Northeast.

And no one is calling for a very snowy Feb (maybe except for Blizz), just increased threat of chances. I think this season has been made worse by the lack of even storm chances. They are all just FROPAs with a few snow showers here and there, with a lack of decent synoptic storminess. Some seasons it feels like there's a low pressure moving by every 48-72 hours. This winter its like one per week, if that.

But it has been snowing...it snows during a 1 week period about every 3 or so weeks. February looks to be more of the same. Sure the pattern is going to "change" but the outcome not so much I don't think. May be totally wrong but I see a week or so of winter sandwiched around the norm.

I guess the hope is for a true blue big snowstorm...a sentiment I share.

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In the future, I urge people NOT to bring up March snows/ winter, etc.

It only agitates the WOTY.

At the risk of creating more aggravation, in looking at the past 29 March's where I live, it seems every other year is above average. '09, 07, '05 etc. were all above the average. '10 & '11 were both well below, so maybe we're "due" statistically speaking?

February might not be so bad so I don't think that we have to jump the gun so to speak.

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Over most of the winter, JMHO the OP GFS has done a fairly good job at pointing out roughly where the pattern would be late in the range.

I'm posting this for only that reason...screaming cold and snowy.

We can look back in a few weeks to see how roughly this played out.

Upslope snow! We need more strong cold fronts and NW CAA.

lol.

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Feb will be the 3rd month of hope and optimism...and likely the 3rd month that will have about 1 week of winter sandwiched around 3 weeks of stink.

Already signs in the models that the pattern begins to crap out after the "good" period...and the CFS and other long range stuff aren't the best. I really hope we get a good month of winter but we seem to keep going through these periods of intense optimism.

Optimism is a relative term and in this season, the prospects of one week of sustained winter certainly evokes it....not sure who is implying that we stand a good shot of a month of unabated snow and cold.

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I'm personally not high at all on that Feb 3rd event for at least the coastal locations, I could see it being a nice interior snow storm threat, but the cold is pretty lacking and the real window to watch looks to be afterward...Feb. 5 - 15th..hopefully we can extend that end date a few more days before the inevitable flip back

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I'm personally not high at all on that Feb 3rd event for at least the coastal locations, I could see it being a nice interior snow storm threat, but the cold is pretty lacking and the real window to watch looks to be afterward...Feb. 5 - 15th..hopefully we can extend that end date a few more days before the inevitable flip back

Yeah I'm with you on that. If it worked out ...great, but the period to watch is after. That Feb 3 deal is the transition storm.

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Many are offering the idea that FEb has a good 2-3 week snowy period

I haven't been paying much attention but glancing through the GFS...and yeah I know all the caveats exist but it hasn't been bad...when I put the date out of 1/22 being the break to crap weather again....some of that came from 10-15 day GFS progs that had been consistently hinting in general we'd lose the cold/snow and it was right.

To me, there's a real opportunity here at least as of right now for more than the 1 week of cold/snow that we've been getting. It's really the first time all winter we could say that there's some really favorable trends. Heck even if the GFS is off by the normal magnitude of cold...

Anyway, I'm encouraged on the outstanding prospects for 6-10 days of cold/snow, and IMO the increasing prospect it may last considerably longer than that. EDIT: Not sure on the snow, if we get cold but get boned on the snow that'd be uncool. Ski areas are going to make their money in February.

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Many have also offered the idea of global warming and UFOs, too....I'd proceed with great scooter caution regarding any period of greater length than one week and especially two.

Just the way the season has gone.

Not a fair comparison at all. But I digress because this is not the climate forum.

If we get 10-14 days of some snow/threats, I'd be more than happy. Maybe a rogue storm later FEB, early MAR and then call it a season.

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