CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Weeklies say the fun doesn't last too long. They bring back lower heights in AK again, albeit weak, by week 3. It's not a blow torch per se, but they abruptly shift it around. I think the tropical convection will probably have a large say as to how fast the pattern breaks down. If it tries to cycle through 8-1-2 like HM was suggesting..and Will mentioned it earlier...it could last longer. We just don't know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Weeklies say the fun doesn't last too long. They bring back lower heights in AK again, albeit weak, by week 3. Yea but man until then things could be very interesting. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yea but man until then things could be very interesting. I like it True, just saying what it shows. Hopefully it's a little too quick in breaking it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 LOL, the 18z GFS shows you exactly how to get a weenie pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 True, just saying what it shows. Hopefully it's a little too quick in breaking it down. Oh i know, give me a 18z and all is forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Oh i know, give me a 18z and all is forgotten What a dream run, talk about salvaging this winter and more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I think if the NAO is more neutral, the chance is for more cstl huggers. I don't think suppression is the worry for any larger storms. Would love some good ol' coastal huggers... been a while since we've seen one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 What a dream run, talk about salvaging this winter and more! the 18zGFS has a knack for sniffing out storm threats before all other guidance,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 As long as the NAO doesn't go too negative and any storms get squashed too far SE... I really like the idea of this pattern in a neutral NAO though. Storms need room to amplify a bit, just not over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 the 18zGFS has a knack for sniffing out storm threats before all other guidance,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 As long as the NAO doesn't go too negative and any storms get squashed too far SE... I really like the idea of this pattern in a neutral NAO though. Storms need room to amplify a bit, just not over Lake Ontario. I dont think you have to worry too much about the nao becoming too negative, I could be wrong but the red taggers can chime in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 LOL, the 18z GFS shows you exactly how to get a weenie pattern. the pna signal is just flat out awesome but do you think the MJO could be helping some in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I dont think you have to worry too much about the nao becoming too negative, I could be wrong but the red taggers can chime in on that. Yeah probably not in this winter, haha. Of course what's good for up here isn't necessarily good for SNE so we are all rooting for something a bit different. It'll be an interesting time period with breakdowns likely on the board (lol) if we get a couple big storms that leave some folks out (be it the far interior or the coastal plain or what not). To go through this whole winter and then watch a couple SECS/MECS roll through and leave you dry or wet (but not white)... emotions will be running high, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I dont think you have to worry too much about the nao becoming too negative, I could be wrong but the red taggers can chime in on that. From paupers to princes in the blink of an eye? Why methinks the answer is a resounding Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 From paupers to princes in the blink of an eye? Why methinks the answer is a resounding Yes Later next week looks really good for some winter weather, enjoy the party ja ja binks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Later next week looks really good for some winter weather, enjoy the party ja ja binks. I'm home.....the problem now becomes the internal alarm clock, FTL......if this unfolds the way it might, I'll be complete disaster when all is said and done lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I'm home.....the problem now becomes the internal alarm clock, FTL......if this unfolds the way it might, I'll be complete disaster when all is said and done lol.... Hopefully its a no brainer and just a matter of how much how often, then you can sleep and enjoy the nuggetuage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hopefully its a no brainer and just a matter of how much how often, then you can sleep and enjoy the nuggetuage. Just give us this and and loss of sleep can be tolerated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Just give us this and and loss of sleep can be tolerated Precarious yet delightful setup....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Precarious yet delightful setup....... Yup, looks like when it's over, it's really over lol......but you never know...nice to be on the good side for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 the pna signal is just flat out awesome but do you think the MJO could be helping some in the long range? If the progs are right, it may help out. I haven't seen evidence yet of it wanting to go from phase 8-1-2, but all models try to push it closer to the dateline in the next couple of weeks. It's possible it may go into phase 8-1 likr the EC was trying to show, so lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Huge weenie analog date on the GGEM ensembles (2nd one listed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Huge weenie analog date on the GGEM ensembles (2nd one listed) By far my most favorite storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Huge weenie analog date on the GGEM ensembles (2nd one listed) There are a ton of weenie analogs on that list Will lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 There are a ton of weenie analogs on that list Will lol Yeah there are some good dates there...'06 is obviously the best one for NYC...and still great for here, but '05 blows the other ones out of the water for most here (CT Valley would take the '06 storm)...of course just because the pattern shows it similar, we know that doesn't mean a big storm would happen out of it...but it certainly shows the potential in the pattern if we can get it to work out as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 LOL, that's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 A huge western ridge with northern stream domination is a fantastic miller B pattern...which is why I hope the more amped up Euro ensembles (and GGEM ensembles shown) come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 A huge western ridge with northern stream domination is a fantastic miller B pattern...which is why I hope the more amped up Euro ensembles (and GGEM ensembles shown) come to fruition. Yeah that's great. The 18z GFS op is a dream come true and exactly what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yeah there are some good dates there...'06 is obviously the best one for NYC...and still great for here, but '05 blows the other ones out of the water for most here (CT Valley would take the '06 storm)...of course just because the pattern shows it similar, we know that doesn't mean a big storm would happen out of it...but it certainly shows the potential in the pattern if we can get it to work out as progged. Absolutely man...mid-Feb '96 is obviously preceding a very respectable event as well...a 12-incher right along I-95 down this way with even a little more in SW NJ spots... Doesnt look like we will have the coldest air available in that trough downstream the PNA ridge, but in early Feb all we need is the 0c line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 A huge western ridge with northern stream domination is a fantastic miller B pattern...which is why I hope the more amped up Euro ensembles (and GGEM ensembles shown) come to fruition. Maybe we can get an undercutting split flow of sorts towards the end of the ridging period too. Would be nice to bring everyone into the game.Probably wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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