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First half of February...another pattern shift?

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted

Eh, I still think we warm near Valentines Day for a few days possibly...maybe even conjure a Tip post about jiggly things in tight clothes and napes. I wouldn't say caved just yet, as the GEFS also edged towards the euro, but I think the euro ensembles trended a little more to the GEFS, than the other way around. At least at this moment. It's still not an ideal pattern right now, but it's better than it looked two days ago...that's for sure.

I can't wait for Tips drunken diatribe Valentines Day massacre post next week. Those are always so special as he sits there naked and drunk typing and eating chocolates out of heart shaped boxes and Whitmans samplers

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weathafella

weathafella

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I'm at peace this morning and accepting of the fact that this winter is a dead ratter and anything I get snow wise is a lovely and pleasant surprise. A nice day today....most winters at the bottom of climo would consider it solidly above normal but today feels cool. Such is the winter of 2011-12.

Today is my wife's and my anniversary and we're going out to celebrate tonight. 16 fabulous years and counting. This summer will be 20 years since we met.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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:lol:

sending hate emails to hallmark and kay jewelers.

Christ ...what the hell did I do...      Annnyway...  3 runs now where the operational GFS is bringing a pretty strong ridge signal into the D. Straight/Greenland vicinity;  the coveted "west -NAO".   Despite the nightly NAO progs being hugely neutral by comparison, the operational has a -NAO bug up its butt over these last few runs.     It's tough, because ...yes, Will's pattern shift assertion was spot on;  somehow, though, I don't think he intended it to mean not snowing...  Wow.  Pretty amazing we've "weathered" a week of this tanked AO and positive PNA and have nothing to show for it.   However, it was pointed out by this azzhole named Typhoon Tip the other day that there was a huge deposition of cold out of the AO domain that took place over Eurasia over the last 10 days.  It has been noted by myself and other Mets over the years that -AO don't always evenly distribute cold.  It depends on other factors that establish where conveyors will set up in the means.   I believe pretty strongly that in the current scenario, having both the EPO and NOA domains be positive while the AO was falling over the last 10 days essentially "blocked" (Alaskan vortex for example...) the conveyors into N/A.   Most of the available cold has been Canadian born/generated because of that ...which ironically has actually been sufficient for snow.   Cold isn't the problem. The problem is,  WHERE THE F ARE ALL STORMS!?     This is not a "melt down" post - although Kevina will certainly do everything in his closeted bald-headed drag queen power to interpret things that way ... It really is more just the fascination of having so much stream interference persisting - it is effectively serving to damp impulses in the atmosphere.  It is noted that areas just west of Denver just had a big one, but that was really a local oriographic effect, not caused by a very demonstrative synoptic scale potency.  There just doesn't seem to be any storms this year.  Kind of bizarre.  What storm tracks that are definable have been Lakes cutters, or damped systems running out underneath us - the majority of which have been the former, but even these have been largely forgettable.   By and large, ...pretty much nothing is happening.   One thing I will say is that you don't want a giant -NAO to come suppressing in from the NNE if you are looking for excitement.  That kind of shock and awe index incursion causes too much gradient when that happens.  S/Ws then won't be able to induce the necessary jet responses for cyclones.   You wind up with a big balance whirlpool over eastern Canada and dry cold NW flow tendencies.   What you want is more like this Feb 4, 12z GFS' 216 hour panel ...or the like.  Even though the entertainment results leave something (still) to be desired ... I still like that appeal of a -NAO ridge/trough couplet high enough in latitude over eastern Canada to allow the "possibility" (at least for christ sake) for S/W dynamics to operate on the flow.   You want a -NAO that doesn't have a "Day After Tomorrow" SPV anchored SW of it over Ontario, bottom line.   You want a "relaxed flow" -NAO, where the negative anomalies surrounding the -NAO ridge is more diffused and spread out over a larger area, having 2 or 3 weaker nodes of accompanying negative anomalies to balance the ridge as opposed to one super massive black hole the gobbles up all the integrated storm energy.   By the way... I believe at middle latitudes a "storm energy available index" can be created, and it would be a telling tool.   It basically looks at the (restorative potential of counter-flows as jet responses induced by S/W wind maximums) + (deconstructive -vs- constructive wavey interference in the means).   If you have a screaming westerly-based, suppressive -NAO ...your SEAI numbers will be low so your storm expectations should also be low.  If you have a west based -NAO that is less suppressive, your SEAI numbers are high, and dollars to donuts ...you're likely to find an actual wave and cyclonegenesis over Eastern N/A.   But I digress...Such an imaginary ...yet plausible index would probably have been coming in with 1's , 2's and 3's out of (10) over the last month to 45 days, no doubt.   Conjecture aside, we can be more encourage that better cold delivery (at least) will be taking place (perhaps counter-balanced by the elevating solar some) over the next 2 weeks, because the EPO part of this discussion is now negative (at last) and continuing to descend.   Having the EPO go negative WHILE the AO is negative, is a pretty clear indicator for a cold shot of some kind.  It may help the storm cause -

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Feb

Feb

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Posted

I'm at peace this morning and accepting of the fact that this winter is a dead ratter and anything I get snow wise is a lovely and pleasant surprise. A nice day today....most winters at the bottom of climo would consider it solidly above normal but today feels cool. Such is the winter of 2011-12.

Today is my wife's and my anniversary and we're going out to celebrate tonight. 16 fabulous years and counting. This summer will be 20 years since we met.

Happy Anniversary Jerry! I have my 25th coming up in May.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Christ ...what the hell did I do... Annnyway... 3 runs now where the operational GFS is bringing a pretty strong ridge signal into the D. Straight/Greenland vicinity; the coveted "west -NAO". Despite the nightly NAO progs being hugely neutral by comparison, the operational has a -NAO bug up its butt over these last few runs. It's tough, because ...yes, Will's pattern shift assertion was spot on; somehow, though, I don't think he intended it to mean not snowing... Wow. Pretty amazing we've "weathered" a week of this tanked AO and positive PNA and have nothing to show for it. However, it was pointed out by this azzhole named Typhoon Tip the other day that there was a huge deposition of cold out of the AO domain that took place over Eurasia over the last 10 days. It has been noted by myself and other Mets over the years that -AO don't always evenly distribute cold. It depends on other factors that establish where conveyors will set up in the means. I believe pretty strongly that in the current scenario, having both the EPO and NOA domains be positive while the AO was falling over the last 10 days essentially "blocked" (Alaskan vortex for example...) the conveyors into N/A. Most of the available cold has been Canadian born/generated because of that ...which ironically has actually been sufficient for snow. Cold isn't the problem. The problem is, WHERE THE F ARE ALL STORMS!? This is not a "melt down" post - although Kevina will certainly do everything in his closeted bald-headed drag queen power to interpret things that way ... It really is more just the fascination of having so much stream interference persisting - it is effectively serving to damp impulses in the atmosphere. It is noted that areas just west of Denver just had a big one, but that was really a local oriographic effect, not caused by a very demonstrative synoptic scale potency. There just doesn't seem to be any storms this year. Kind of bizarre. What storm tracks that are definable have been Lakes cutters, or damped systems running out underneath us - the majority of which have been the former, but even these have been largely forgettable. By and large, ...pretty much nothing is happening. One thing I will say is that you don't want a giant -NAO to come suppressing in from the NNE if you are looking for excitement. That kind of shock and awe index incursion causes too much gradient when that happens. S/Ws then won't be able to induce the necessary jet responses for cyclones. You wind up with a big balance whirlpool over eastern Canada and dry cold NW flow tendencies. What you want is more like this Feb 4, 12z GFS' 216 hour panel ...or the like. Even though the entertainment results leave something (still) to be desired ... I still like that appeal of a -NAO ridge/trough couplet high enough in latitude over eastern Canada to allow the "possibility" (at least for christ sake) for S/W dynamics to operate on the flow. You want a -NAO that doesn't have a "Day After Tomorrow" SPV anchored SW of it over Ontario, bottom line. You want a "relaxed flow" -NAO, where the negative anomalies surrounding the -NAO ridge is more diffused and spread out over a larger area, having 2 or 3 weaker nodes of accompanying negative anomalies to balance the ridge as opposed to one super massive black hole the gobbles up all the integrated storm energy. By the way... I believe at middle latitudes a "storm energy available index" can be created, and it would be a telling tool. It basically looks at the (restorative potential of counter-flows as jet responses induced by S/W wind maximums) + (deconstructive -vs- constructive wavey interference in the means). If you have a screaming westerly-based, suppressive -NAO ...your SEAI numbers will be low so your storm expectations should also be low. If you have a west based -NAO that is less suppressive, your SEAI numbers are high, and dollars to donuts ...you're likely to find an actual wave and cyclonegenesis over Eastern N/A. But I digress...Such an imaginary ...yet plausible index would probably have been coming in with 1's , 2's and 3's out of (10) over the last month to 45 days, no doubt. Conjecture aside, we can be more encourage that better cold delivery (at least) will be taking place (perhaps counter-balanced by the elevating solar some) over the next 2 weeks, because the EPO part of this discussion is now negative (at last) and continuing to descend. Having the EPO go negative WHILE the AO is negative, is a pretty clear indicator for a cold shot of some kind. It may help the storm cause -

We are just kidding John. It was in reference to how you responded about V-Day being a commerical Hallmark holiday now.

Anyways it wiould be nice to get the PV or a lobe of it to swing into the OV and conjur up as Miller B, but that we may have to deal with some sort of Gulf low scooting ne instead.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I'm at peace this morning and accepting of the fact that this winter is a dead ratter and anything I get snow wise is a lovely and pleasant surprise.   A nice day today....most winters at the bottom of climo would consider it solidly above normal but today feels cool.  Such is the winter of 2011-12.  

Today is my wife's and my anniversary and we're going out to celebrate tonight.  16 fabulous years and counting.  This summer will be 20 years since we met.

Happy Anniversary bro, load up on the Cialis

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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We are just kidding John. It was in reference to how you responded about V-Day being a commerical Hallmark holiday now.

Anyways it wiould be nice to get the PV or a lobe of it to swing into the OV and conjur up as Miller B, but that we may have to deal with some sort of Gulf low scooting ne instead.

I know that! come on... LOL

post-904-0-50878500-1328378639.jpg

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

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Posted

Lol...he tried a bit too hard with that one.

Hopefully he gets his early spring with 44F and drizzle the entire month of March...good frisbee weather.

Yup, that's spring in Plymouth ... low 40's while the rest of New England is in the 60's lol.

I just hope we lose any downstream blocking this spring so we can build some decent ridging up the east coast.

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