Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 tough not being able to see the entire globe but at least on this side of the planet euro is more stout with the ridge that builds out west and keeps lower heights our near the aleutians further west...ends up driving the ridge more northward toward the pole and doesn't get undercut and pinched off...so the PV drops due south and ends up trapped on our side caves to the GFS AWT. Seriously it could go either way but to me it looks like the entire NH cools off except the Arctic which leads to extreme blockiness everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Big changes on the EC ensembles for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Big changes on the EC ensembles for now. Caved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Caved? Yeah would seem like it. It doesn't look like the GEFS, but made a jump towards it. Much much less of a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah would seem like it. It doesn't look like the GEFS, but made a jump towards it. Much much less of a -PNA. But the Euro is King. A bald-headed marathoner told us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Caved may be too strong of a word, but made a step towards it. Guidance a little more clustered together now. Probably not a fluke either. When you have the GEFS and CAN still remain steadfast....it still may trend a bit towards the better EC guidance, but it can be a red flag that the EC may be too aggressive. The EC is still relatively mild, but it's much weaker with the zonal PAC flow across the US. I'd like to see how the 00z run is, to make sure it doesn't go back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It does finish on a cooler note, but more work needs to be done. Still, it was a nice step in the right direction. However, I'd like to see 00z at least stay steady or continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We've spent the last 3 months worrying about 11-15...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Model consistency is a joke right now, 18z gfs is a shutout as the trough axis is not favorable and the pna ridge not sharp enough to amplify storms to come up the coast, I am sure it s wrong but its funny watching different outcomes every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 less than a tench of an inch of precip for SNE. SLAP in the face. lol with this winter and the models...it's sort of a mix emotionally between being at a casion and rolling the dice upteen times and never getting a favorable outcome that delivers anything. and (i guess) coming to terms you live in a area that gets between 30-70 inches of snow annually (and that varies) and you have been relatively spoiled in the last 20 years. i should have moved to elevated central /NNE (anywhere over 1200' and north of a rutland-ossipee-klewiston line.....bc anyone hoping for good winters will not be happy many a year in SNE no matter what. and to the NYC and Mid atl...weenies ....lord help them every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 less than a tench of an inch of precip for SNE. SLAP in the face. lol with this winter and the models...it's sort of a mix emotionally between being at a casion and rolling the dice upteen times and never getting a favorable outcome that delivers anything. and (i guess) coming to terms you live in a area that gets between 30-70 inches of snow annually (and that varies) and you have been relatively spoiled in the last 20 years. i should have moved to elevated central /NNE (anywhere over 1200' and north of a rutland-ossipee-klewiston line.....bc anyone hoping for good winters will not be happy many a year in SNE no matter what. and to the NYC and Mid atl...weenies ....lord help them every year. I am sure that run is wrong pickles....I love the tues system, I think Will was speaking of that yesterday, would not take much too turn that into a nice little snowfall. We have been spoiled in these parts lately, 70 last year and 40+ the couple years before that. Nyc has had an amazing run of late, all things work out in the end, aka law of averages. Its going to snow again, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ya i hope the 18z run is bunk. i'm not anticipating that much this winter and i still enjoy any snow events but i think i am just coming to terms with the fact i need to live somewhere that climo averages a more enjoyable winter and i don't need to rely on good years to be happy. perhaps i can build a yurt at about 5200' feet up from pinkham notch in jackson,nh. i could enjoy beautiful views and snow from late sept. to early june. hiking this fall in the white's made me fall in love with them. 60 degree fall days in conway were 30 degrees with upslope snow several days near the ridge line around 5k in the presidentials. magical to me they really do get hammered with upslope in the 5k area surrounding mt. washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Maybe the best news ever that 18 Z is not a weenie run, it has been all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 00z GFS shows the Feb 8-9 shortwave but the precip isn't all that impressive, but it does give a period of light snow. I would think the precip would be a little more impressive if it looked like that in the upper levels with a negative tilted southern stream wave...but we're well far enough away that any detail like that is irrelevant at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 00z GFS shows the Feb 8-9 shortwave but the precip isn't all that impressive, but it does give a period of light snow. I would think the precip would be a little more impressive if it looked like that in the upper levels with a negative tilted southern stream wave...but we're well far enough away that any detail like that is irrelevant at this point. re Feb 7-9, PV isn't in place yet... temp profile would be marginal at best it seems but maybe this would change, 84 hrs away re Feb 10-12, PV is nicely placed but we get a whiffer... any more interaction between northern and southern streams and we have an EC storm with plenty of gulf moisture... continues to be best setup we've seen in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 re Feb 7-9, PV isn't in place yet... temp profile would be marginal at best it seems but maybe this would change, 84 hrs away re Feb 10-12, PV is nicely placed but we get a whiffer... any more interaction between northern and southern streams and we have an EC storm with plenty of gulf moisture... continues to be best setup we've seen in a while It might be, but the GFS is plenty cold on its run...there won't be arctic air in place yet, but there are several scenarios where its plenty cold to snow...even without it being a wet glop. There are plenty of scenarios too that could make it a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 fantasy setup in the fantasy range: nice neg NAO, 50-50 low and poof we get a blizzard EDIT: this would be PD Storm III (?IV) lol yawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 00z Euro has the Feb 9 system...probably an advisory type snow for much of SNE outside of the south coast and far SE MA/S RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 00z Euro has the Feb 9 system...probably an advisory type snow for much of SNE outside of the south coast and far SE MA/S RI. Verbatim 3-5/6. Kevin is stirring in his sleep dreaming that he lost the keys to the bus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Verbatim 3-5/6. Kevin is stirring in his sleep dreaming that he lost the keys to the bus... yes fit the bus with snow tires ....the big daddy ...is coming....or we could just hop in and drive it to foot hills west of denver where they have over 40 inches in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 not a bad euro run...overall...cold in the medium range with some threats. Not nearly as nuts the pv as the 12z but that was expected I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 not a bad euro run...overall...cold in the medium range with some threats. Not nearly as nuts the pv as the 12z but that was expected I think. Totally lost the DS block too...guess that goes hand-in-hand with the pv not going nuts. I didn't really believe Will that the Euro had the same skill as the GFS past Day 7 but the difference between today's 12z and tonight's 00z is making that pretty apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 More slight improvements in the 11-15d EC ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like we can lock one in Wed nite/Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 More slight improvements in the 11-15d EC ens. Agreed. And, the GEFS really didn't back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like we can lock one in Wed nite/Thursday I thought you said move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I thought you said move on. I thought you said not to count on it and not to get excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Hard to believe the Euro ens are getting bent over the table by the GEFS..but they are. The Euro ens are going to PHAIL miserably..and I think everyone is both shocked and ecstatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I thought you said not to count on it and not to get excited? And for now, I would agree. Don't get excited or count on it. But, both threats are on the table and I would not count them out right now. Hopefulyl today's guidance is mroe bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Hard to believe the Euro ens are getting bent over the table by the GEFS..but they are. The Euro ens are going to PHAIL miserably..and I think everyone is both shocked and ecstatic Eh, I still think we warm near Valentines Day for a few days possibly...maybe even conjure a Tip post about jiggly things in tight clothes and napes. I wouldn't say caved just yet, as the GEFS also edged towards the euro, but I think the euro ensembles trended a little more to the GEFS, than the other way around. At least at this moment. It's still not an ideal pattern right now, but it's better than it looked two days ago...that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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