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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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tough not being able to see the entire globe but at least on this side of the planet euro is more stout with the ridge that builds out west and keeps lower heights our near the aleutians further west...ends up driving the ridge more northward toward the pole and doesn't get undercut and pinched off...so the PV drops due south and ends up trapped on our side

caves to the GFS AWT. Seriously it could go either way but to me it looks like the entire NH cools off except the Arctic which leads to extreme blockiness everywhere.

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Caved may be too strong of a word, but made a step towards it. Guidance a little more clustered together now.

Probably not a fluke either. When you have the GEFS and CAN still remain steadfast....it still may trend a bit towards the better EC guidance, but it can be a red flag that the EC may be too aggressive. The EC is still relatively mild, but it's much weaker with the zonal PAC flow across the US. I'd like to see how the 00z run is, to make sure it doesn't go back the other way.

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less than a tench of an inch of precip for SNE. SLAP in the face. lol

with this winter and the models...it's sort of a mix emotionally between being at a casion and rolling the dice upteen times and never getting a favorable outcome that delivers anything. and (i guess) coming to terms you live in a area that gets between 30-70 inches of snow annually (and that varies) and you have been relatively spoiled in the last 20 years.

i should have moved to elevated central /NNE (anywhere over 1200' and north of a rutland-ossipee-klewiston line.....bc anyone hoping for good winters will not be happy many a year in SNE no matter what. and to the NYC and Mid atl...weenies ....lord help them every year.

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less than a tench of an inch of precip for SNE. SLAP in the face. lol

with this winter and the models...it's sort of a mix emotionally between being at a casion and rolling the dice upteen times and never getting a favorable outcome that delivers anything. and (i guess) coming to terms you live in a area that gets between 30-70 inches of snow annually (and that varies) and you have been relatively spoiled in the last 20 years.

i should have moved to elevated central /NNE (anywhere over 1200' and north of a rutland-ossipee-klewiston line.....bc anyone hoping for good winters will not be happy many a year in SNE no matter what. and to the NYC and Mid atl...weenies ....lord help them every year.

I am sure that run is wrong pickles....I love the tues system, I think Will was speaking of that yesterday, would not take much too turn that into a nice little snowfall. We have been spoiled in these parts lately, 70 last year and 40+ the couple years before that. Nyc has had an amazing run of late, all things work out in the end, aka law of averages.

Its going to snow again, I think.

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ya i hope the 18z run is bunk. i'm not anticipating that much this winter and i still enjoy any snow events but i think i am just coming to terms with the fact i need to live somewhere that climo averages a more enjoyable winter and i don't need to rely on good years to be happy.

perhaps i can build a yurt at about 5200' feet up from pinkham notch in jackson,nh.

i could enjoy beautiful views and snow from late sept. to early june.

hiking this fall in the white's made me fall in love with them. 60 degree fall days in conway were 30 degrees with upslope snow several days near the ridge line around 5k in the presidentials. magical to me

they really do get hammered with upslope in the 5k area surrounding mt. washington.

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00z GFS shows the Feb 8-9 shortwave but the precip isn't all that impressive, but it does give a period of light snow. I would think the precip would be a little more impressive if it looked like that in the upper levels with a negative tilted southern stream wave...but we're well far enough away that any detail like that is irrelevant at this point.

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00z GFS shows the Feb 8-9 shortwave but the precip isn't all that impressive, but it does give a period of light snow. I would think the precip would be a little more impressive if it looked like that in the upper levels with a negative tilted southern stream wave...but we're well far enough away that any detail like that is irrelevant at this point.

re Feb 7-9, PV isn't in place yet... temp profile would be marginal at best it seems but maybe this would change, 84 hrs away

re Feb 10-12, PV is nicely placed but we get a whiffer... any more interaction between northern and southern streams and we have an EC storm with plenty of gulf moisture... continues to be best setup we've seen in a while

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re Feb 7-9, PV isn't in place yet... temp profile would be marginal at best it seems but maybe this would change, 84 hrs away

re Feb 10-12, PV is nicely placed but we get a whiffer... any more interaction between northern and southern streams and we have an EC storm with plenty of gulf moisture... continues to be best setup we've seen in a while

It might be, but the GFS is plenty cold on its run...there won't be arctic air in place yet, but there are several scenarios where its plenty cold to snow...even without it being a wet glop. There are plenty of scenarios too that could make it a wet snow.

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not a bad euro run...overall...cold in the medium range with some threats. Not nearly as nuts the pv as the 12z but that was expected I think.

Totally lost the DS block too...guess that goes hand-in-hand with the pv not going nuts. I didn't really believe Will that the Euro had the same skill as the GFS past Day 7 but the difference between today's 12z and tonight's 00z is making that pretty apparent.

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Hard to believe the Euro ens are getting bent over the table by the GEFS..but they are. The Euro ens are going to PHAIL miserably..and I think everyone is both shocked and ecstatic

Eh, I still think we warm near Valentines Day for a few days possibly...maybe even conjure a Tip post about jiggly things in tight clothes and napes. I wouldn't say caved just yet, as the GEFS also edged towards the euro, but I think the euro ensembles trended a little more to the GEFS, than the other way around. At least at this moment. It's still not an ideal pattern right now, but it's better than it looked two days ago...that's for sure.

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