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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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Ok. Since it probably warms up post-2/12, we better get that 10-12 threat to verify.

It doesn't look hopeless after that either...we'll prob get our Vday warmup for a few days, but the Euro ensembles did trend higher with heights in AK/WC after that and they are probably not done trending. A compromise between them and GEFS would get us back into a pattern where we'd have some chances.

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It doesn't look hopeless after that either...we'll prob get our Vday warmup for a few days, but the Euro ensembles did trend higher with heights in AK/WC after that and they are probably not done trending. A compromise between them and GEFS would get us back into a pattern where we'd have some chances.

It's going to be interesting to see if the euro tries to continue that, after we warm up. Certainly would help our cause in this part of the country.

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nah you gotta know what to look for. the operational Euro, although not as good as the GFS in the d1 through d8 over the last 30 days, was not as bad as you may think. it would not take much at all to get that little yet potent s/w at d5-7 to translate in and do a high ec miller b analog that lays down some snow. and given to the overwhelming teleconnector spread there is plenty of room for that to happen. we'll see. there's also another s/w hidden in there around d9 that could blow up over ensuing runs...

people aren't happy unless they see a text book k.u. on the maps -

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nah you gotta know what to look for. the operational Euro, although not as good as the GFS in the d1 through d8 over the last 30 days, was not as bad as you may think. it would not take much at all to get that little yet potent s/w at d5-7 to translate in and do a high ec miller b analog that lays down some snow. and given to the overwhelming teleconnector spread there is plenty of room for that to happen. we'll see. there's also another s/w hidden in there around d9 that could blow up over ensuing runs...

people aren't happy unless they see a text book k.u. on the maps -

Yeah I actually didn't mind the look at D6-7 on there. I wish the airmass was a little colder for better thermal gradient, but beggars can't be choosers this winter...it produced a few inches as it was, but it could def be a little more potent on future runs.

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I wish Okie was correct, but see Gibbs post after his

post-218-0-79152400-1328285494.jpg

i think the thing is the gfs cluster is not seeing the area near 90E well - at all - and doesn't have it going forward either. you can go see scooter's post in the main thread for a good example of it's forecast going forward.

the euro cluster doesn't have the area of developing OLR near 160E quite as well as the GFS does but it still has it to some degree.

the one potential "positive" would be that the region near 160 seems to have verified slightly stronger in the 1/26-2/2 period than it was forecast a week or so ago, but i don't know that that can offset what's going on in the IO region. plus, given history this winter...you'd favor the IO convection ultimately dominating:

post-218-0-30782000-1328285535.png

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Yeah I actually didn't mind the look at D6-7 on there. I wish the airmass was a little colder for better thermal gradient, but beggars can't be choosers this winter...it produced a few inches as it was, but it could def be a little more potent on future runs.

agreed!

one thing i've been kicking around but haven't stated - though intimated several times ... - is that with the teleconnector spread the way it is, with diving EPO, +PNA on-going...heavily negative AO, the NAO even finally having a few members tickle negative, and if all that is not enough, exotically powerful MJO in Phase 8 not apparently modeled... it would not shock me if at any point from now through March 1 if things suddenly broke wild and raged, and if perhaps all this consternation has been nothing more than typical pattern transition modeling performance -related.

we seem to be collective be caught up in the weeds of negativity and "woe-is-us", where other considerations have taken a back burner.

i'm just trying to be objective here. we got all the clues in place. i guess we pick and choose which one's fit our mind sets at the given times we observe them. haha

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Its amazing how the GEFS and Euro are completely failing with the convection in opposite spots...GEFS is not seeing the IO convection and the Euro is completely choking on the PAC convection...I guess we'll have to wait and see what the consequences are.

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Its amazing how the GEFS and Euro are completely failing with the convection in opposite spots...GEFS is not seeing the IO convection and the Euro is completely choking on the PAC convection...I guess we'll have to wait and see what the consequences are.

Yeah each model is not seeing the convection well for now. Both areas are big hot spots right now.

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Are we just paying more attention to the models with regards to the MJO? IE are we "seeing" faults that always have existed until the MJO became such a popular topic in the last 24 months?

The MJO can spend a large period in low amplitude where it doesn't matter that much in terms of the pattern, but its been more active recently and how the models are handling the current higher amplitude wave is what is creating the large discrepancies...also when you get a monster block in the NAO region or something, it can often temper the MJO's influence or delay it, so you don't hear as much about it.

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The MJO can spend a large period in low amplitude where it doesn't matter that much in terms of the pattern, but its been more active recently and how the models are handling the current higher amplitude wave is what is creating the large discrepancies...also when you get a monster block in the NAO region or something, it can often temper the MJO's influence or delay it, so you don't hear as much about it.

Okay.

I'm just wondering if in looking for answers to the differences we're looking too hard. Kind of like at times there are differences in the GFS and all other models with the strength and position of s/ws but the sensible forecast isn't changed uch.

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Okay.

I'm just wondering if in looking for answers to the differences we're looking too hard. Kind of like at times there are differences in the GFS and all other models with the strength and position of s/ws but the sensible forecast isn't changed uch.

It's important not to fall in love with it. I mean a lot of people thought last year's Nina was going to be crappy here because naturally you'll have convection near the IO and the mean long wave pattern would feature a trough in the west. But instead...like Will hinted at, we had a good blocking regime and we got clocked with storm after storm. It wasn't until Feb where the blocking relaxed, that we returned to a more typical Nina pattern.

I think the reason why the MJO topic lately is being thrown around so much, is that models seem to be keying on that feature as the driver of the pattern in the next 1-2 weeks. So with that, it's easy to see how placement of that convection is important to the sensible wx outcome around here

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