Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well wait, all I said was that it's a threat. I don't see a reason to be on or off a bus right now. I still would watch it, but I don't have high hopes. Lol, just bustin , there is no bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ok. Since it probably warms up post-2/12, we better get that 10-12 threat to verify. It doesn't look hopeless after that either...we'll prob get our Vday warmup for a few days, but the Euro ensembles did trend higher with heights in AK/WC after that and they are probably not done trending. A compromise between them and GEFS would get us back into a pattern where we'd have some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I could see how NYC scrapes out 1-3 inches out of that this weekend..but no farther north than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It doesn't look hopeless after that either...we'll prob get our Vday warmup for a few days, but the Euro ensembles did trend higher with heights in AK/WC after that and they are probably not done trending. A compromise between them and GEFS would get us back into a pattern where we'd have some chances. It's going to be interesting to see if the euro tries to continue that, after we warm up. Certainly would help our cause in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nah you gotta know what to look for. the operational Euro, although not as good as the GFS in the d1 through d8 over the last 30 days, was not as bad as you may think. it would not take much at all to get that little yet potent s/w at d5-7 to translate in and do a high ec miller b analog that lays down some snow. and given to the overwhelming teleconnector spread there is plenty of room for that to happen. we'll see. there's also another s/w hidden in there around d9 that could blow up over ensuing runs... people aren't happy unless they see a text book k.u. on the maps - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So we potentially snow on the 11th..the next 3 days are in the 50's and then we have to hope we have a pattern that is cold enough to snow..ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 I could see how NYC scrapes out 1-3 inches out of that this weekend..but no farther north than that A miracle might do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 39;s also another s/w hidden in there around d9 that could blow up over ensuing runs... people aren't happy unless they see a text book k.u. on the maps - How about measurable inside 240 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 nah you gotta know what to look for. the operational Euro, although not as good as the GFS in the d1 through d8 over the last 30 days, was not as bad as you may think. it would not take much at all to get that little yet potent s/w at d5-7 to translate in and do a high ec miller b analog that lays down some snow. and given to the overwhelming teleconnector spread there is plenty of room for that to happen. we'll see. there's also another s/w hidden in there around d9 that could blow up over ensuing runs... people aren't happy unless they see a text book k.u. on the maps - Yeah I actually didn't mind the look at D6-7 on there. I wish the airmass was a little colder for better thermal gradient, but beggars can't be choosers this winter...it produced a few inches as it was, but it could def be a little more potent on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I wish Okie was correct, but see Gibbs post after his i think the thing is the gfs cluster is not seeing the area near 90E well - at all - and doesn't have it going forward either. you can go see scooter's post in the main thread for a good example of it's forecast going forward. the euro cluster doesn't have the area of developing OLR near 160E quite as well as the GFS does but it still has it to some degree. the one potential "positive" would be that the region near 160 seems to have verified slightly stronger in the 1/26-2/2 period than it was forecast a week or so ago, but i don't know that that can offset what's going on in the IO region. plus, given history this winter...you'd favor the IO convection ultimately dominating: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So we potentially snow on the 11th..the next 3 days are in the 50's and then we have to hope we have a pattern that is cold enough to snow..ugh Forget snowpack...not happening this year period. But snow is good and opportunities are not dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah I actually didn't mind the look at D6-7 on there. I wish the airmass was a little colder for better thermal gradient, but beggars can't be choosers this winter...it produced a few inches as it was, but it could def be a little more potent on future runs. agreed! one thing i've been kicking around but haven't stated - though intimated several times ... - is that with the teleconnector spread the way it is, with diving EPO, +PNA on-going...heavily negative AO, the NAO even finally having a few members tickle negative, and if all that is not enough, exotically powerful MJO in Phase 8 not apparently modeled... it would not shock me if at any point from now through March 1 if things suddenly broke wild and raged, and if perhaps all this consternation has been nothing more than typical pattern transition modeling performance -related. we seem to be collective be caught up in the weeds of negativity and "woe-is-us", where other considerations have taken a back burner. i'm just trying to be objective here. we got all the clues in place. i guess we pick and choose which one's fit our mind sets at the given times we observe them. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Forget snowpack...not happening this year period. But snow is good and opportunities are not dead. Yea that is our lot down here. Was nice feeling winter last night in a moderate snow shower then icy cold this morning. Felt great actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its amazing how the GEFS and Euro are completely failing with the convection in opposite spots...GEFS is not seeing the IO convection and the Euro is completely choking on the PAC convection...I guess we'll have to wait and see what the consequences are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Are we just paying more attention to the models with regards to the MJO? IE are we "seeing" faults that always have existed until the MJO became such a popular topic in the last 24 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Its amazing how the GEFS and Euro are completely failing with the convection in opposite spots...GEFS is not seeing the IO convection and the Euro is completely choking on the PAC convection...I guess we'll have to wait and see what the consequences are. Yeah each model is not seeing the convection well for now. Both areas are big hot spots right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Are we just paying more attention to the models with regards to the MJO? IE are we "seeing" faults that always have existed until the MJO became such a popular topic in the last 24 months? The MJO can spend a large period in low amplitude where it doesn't matter that much in terms of the pattern, but its been more active recently and how the models are handling the current higher amplitude wave is what is creating the large discrepancies...also when you get a monster block in the NAO region or something, it can often temper the MJO's influence or delay it, so you don't hear as much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Here comes the GFS with a gulf system at 174 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 One of the reasons I like the 10-12th time is the possible Gulf connection. Precip types aside, you gotta like something coming from the Gulf, usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Here comes the GFS with a gulf system at 174 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The MJO can spend a large period in low amplitude where it doesn't matter that much in terms of the pattern, but its been more active recently and how the models are handling the current higher amplitude wave is what is creating the large discrepancies...also when you get a monster block in the NAO region or something, it can often temper the MJO's influence or delay it, so you don't hear as much about it. Okay. I'm just wondering if in looking for answers to the differences we're looking too hard. Kind of like at times there are differences in the GFS and all other models with the strength and position of s/ws but the sensible forecast isn't changed uch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No snow for you March 93 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Congrats to the interior for Feb 11 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 March 93 ? Jan 96/March 93 hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Okay. I'm just wondering if in looking for answers to the differences we're looking too hard. Kind of like at times there are differences in the GFS and all other models with the strength and position of s/ws but the sensible forecast isn't changed uch. It's important not to fall in love with it. I mean a lot of people thought last year's Nina was going to be crappy here because naturally you'll have convection near the IO and the mean long wave pattern would feature a trough in the west. But instead...like Will hinted at, we had a good blocking regime and we got clocked with storm after storm. It wasn't until Feb where the blocking relaxed, that we returned to a more typical Nina pattern. I think the reason why the MJO topic lately is being thrown around so much, is that models seem to be keying on that feature as the driver of the pattern in the next 1-2 weeks. So with that, it's easy to see how placement of that convection is important to the sensible wx outcome around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Jan 96/March 93 hybrid I would say a preliminary call of 3-4 feet wouldn;t be a bad start for the 11th..lasting into the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Congrats to the interior for Feb 11 on the GFS. <<Kevin>> "I'm back"<<Kevin>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I would say a preliminary call of 3-4 feet wouldn;t be a bad start for the 11th..lasting into the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 <<Kevin>> "I'm back"<<Kevin>> The fact that garbage Americana has this storm is frightening enough. if the Euro has it today..I'll be interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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