Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I have never seen a winter with so many weenie terms being thrown around, all in the hope a pattern would change or bring snow. Strat warming tropical forcing roundy pna every winter has them, this winter was just obnoxious..........its time to move on if you live on the CP, and darn close for the interior of course different story in cne and nne. Pitchers and Catchers reporting momentarily, March Madness around the corner, and The Masters. Enjoy this weekend, the weather is magnificent. well they aren't being tossed around without reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 well they aren't being tossed around without reason. Yeah I don't know what his point was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah I don't know what his point was. Yea why would we talk about weather on a weather board, kind of senseless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Frustrating as all get out. In other news weekend event trending north, praying we get some sort of a phase, if not advisory snows looking likely for our firends to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Frustrating as all get out. In other news weekend event trending north, praying we get some sort of a phase, if not advisory snows looking likely for our firends to the south. Thanks to the Jan Strat warming and just enough tropical forcing, according to Roundy a positive PNA will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Frustrating as all get out. In other news weekend event trending north, praying we get some sort of a phase, if not advisory snows looking likely for our firends to the south. Forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Thanks to the Jan Strat warming and just enough tropical forcing, according to Roundy a positive PNA will help. Looks like the strat warming helped the other side of the pole, euro may have had the right idea regarding tropical forcing and less tc development in the pac, not as much latent heat released as the gfs was showing? One eyed pig south of ack beating down the pna ridge, not as amplified as once thought with the eastern trough not sharp enough for phasing? Sure hope this weekend storm comes north, was the trend most of the winter...hope it does not go away just when we need it one would think the tropical forcing would help the se ridge nudge some dendrites up this way. Not giving up on Sunday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Frustrating as all get out. In other news weekend event trending north, praying we get some sort of a phase, if not advisory snows looking likely for our firends to the south. trending north of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 trending north of what? Looks like the 12z nam tries to phase at the last minute, gets snow up into central nj, liking the trends a lot, another bumpr or two north and its snowing on the south coast. Believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Frustrating as all get out. In other news weekend event trending north, praying we get some sort of a phase, if not advisory snows looking likely for our firends to the south. trending north of what? wrong sub-forum lol... trending north so that philly might get some snow eyes still on Feb 10-16 timeframe, multiple potentials per GFS/GEFS if we get a fairly deep trough with PV diving and northern/southern streams interact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 wrong sub-forum lol... trending north so that philly might get some snow eyes still on Feb 10-16 timeframe, multiple potentials per GFS/GEFS if we get a fairly deep trough with PV diving and northern/southern streams interact More like one eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 More like one eye on that. I do actually have 2 eyes. I don't think it's so unreasonable, though if GEFS trend towards Euro it's over... I'm not taking any potential to the bank by any means (and personally, still invested in a futility record as I've been since December). But I'm also not the "one eye". As you know, there's been lots of attention to the MJO outlooks on GFS vs. Euro and impact on Feb 10-16 timeframe. And here's a good post from the NYC thread yesterday: Nice post Tom and I agree with all of your thoughts. The tropical forcing forecasts have been highly unstable this season. Interestingly enough i've noticed the ECMWF has had a tendency to be too weak with the waves so far. I'm not sure if there is any statistical data somewhere on this...but it's definitely something I have picked up on over the past few months of forecasting. The pattern laid out on the GFS and GEFS is a very interesting one. There's a split flow underneath the ridge out west and a generally well-positioned PV signal. It's not too far south yet so that it would suppress the upper level flow...and it's also not too far north so that it could work against us. Obviously the positioning of this becomes key and a lot of that works in tandem with the higher latitude ridging or above normal anomalies we're seeing on some of the ensemble guidance. We will have to see how this plays out...I really don't think we know all the details on the synoptics of this one yet. But as advertised it looks interesting with some well positioned features. I really like the look of the broad trough coming out of the southern stream. When the PV is well positioned it loves to get involved and interact with those types of features. The other option on the table here is that the southern stream trough never really ejects out of it's comfortable position. In that case the PV will swing through and that'll be that. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 More like one eye on that. scooter first met off the bus, one down 5 to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 scooter first met off the bus, one down 5 to go I dont even think Will posted last night:(..........and phil mentioned in the obs thread how insanely boring things have been, and was hoping for some storms in March. Was Ryan ever on the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't agree with this..but thought it was at least interesting to post. The GEFS is right... in fact it may even be a little too weak and slow. The ECMWF ENS should be discarded as it got the 24-hour forecast horribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I dont even think Will posted last night:(..........and phil mentioned in the obs thread how insanely boring things have been, and was hoping for some storms in March. Was Ryan ever on the bus? They all pointed to 10-12 as our best chance. Lets hope it materializes, and yea that Storm is way north of progs already, good hit NJ Balt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Awful pattern shown on the Euro, even if we get a few cold days its very boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I don't agree with this..but thought it was at least interesting to post. I would not discount it Kev, the convection right now is pretty impressive out in the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 bbbbbbbboring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I would not discount it Kev, the convection right now is pretty impressive out in the pac. I wish Okie was correct, but see Gibbs post after his Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro did show a snow event for Feb 9-10 last night. No use commenting on it though at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro did show a snow event for Feb 9-10 last night. No use commenting on it though at this time range. What do you think of the NAm and the MA?, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 What do you think of the NAm and the MA?, interesting I have a feeling up to about NYC gets snow out of that deal this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 scooter first met off the bus, one down 5 to go Well wait, all I said was that it's a threat. I don't see a reason to be on or off a bus right now. I still would watch it, but I don't have high hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 What do you think of the NAm and the MA?, interesting Would serve us right for poking fun of the MAer's and their climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I have a feeling up to about NYC gets snow out of that deal this weekend Thats what your boy thinks too. Riding the jma i see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Any meaningful snow isn't getting up to NYC out of that system...maybe they get some weenie flakes or flurries, but the accumulating stuff should be mostly south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 At 51h on the 12z GFS, if that northern vort somehow merged with the southern vort, would this thing come further north? I know I'm grasping for straws. We deserve one lucky break though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guys, this is not coming to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guys, this is not coming to SNE. Ok. Since it probably warms up post-2/12, we better get that 10-12 threat to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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