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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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This isn't a serious post but I do find it funny how even the 12z GFS is an ice box for two weeks with no synoptic precipitation events (read: very dry)... then the first real low pressure system to affect New England happens at hour 360 and its a cutter.

That would be our luck this winter... we go cold and dry for two weeks and then the first storm we see after that long period ends up tracking up the Saint Lawrence Valley.

gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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This isn't a serious post but I do find it funny how even the 12z GFS is an ice box for two weeks with no synoptic precipitation events (read: very dry)... then the first real low pressure system to affect New England happens at hour 360 and its a cutter.

That would be our luck this winter... we go cold and dry for two weeks and then the first storm we see after that long period ends up tracking up the Saint Lawrence Valley.

gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

3G post, 18 Z is out.

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3G post, 18 Z is out.

Yeah I'm just using that as an example of a giant kick in the nutz, lol. We'd deal with -20C to -30C air at H85 for a bit and then warm up just in time for our first synoptic event in 15 days to be a rainer. That would be the icing on the cake this winter, haha.

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Its amazing that even on a "weenie run" the first storm system to affect us is progged to be over two weeks away.

can't sweat the details so far out, but the large-scale pattern is decent with multiple chances feb 10-16

quite the gfs/gefs/gem vs. euro battle setting up... given the euro's abysmal performance this season, i wouldn't be surprised if it caves and we have something to track as we get closer... on the other hand, we have a long seasonal tendency for imploding threats

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Yeah I'm just using that as an example of a giant kick in the nutz, lol. We'd deal with -20C to -30C air at H85 for a bit and then warm up just in time for our first synoptic event in 15 days to be a rainer. That would be the icing on the cake this winter, haha.

Lots of ENS support for the 10-12 period and if we indeed get a monster Arctic airmass, lockup massive upslope for you.

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I am not expecting any blockbuster storms (pressure wise) I just dont think the pna ridge ever gets ampified enough with the lower heights in ak, however, I do think we will be blindsided by something, a nice little suprise or two when models dont pick up on it until very close in, a miller b or amped up sw, who knows.

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Loop  this, crazy cold, watch Europe, Australia and the AK cold path over the top and down to us.

http://policlimate.c...t850a_plan.html

What initially jumps out at me is that it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere and the balance of cool anomalies appears spread out there. We have cold areas, but they are small and out numbered and out spatially oriented by warm anomalies up in the North - these are all relative to season of course. They are having cool summer while we are having warm winter. Interesting.

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EC ens in the 11-15 increase the ridging slightly into AK and shift the US trough axis a little east. It's still pretty warm in the northeast though.

Yeah the GEFS came in a bit warmer and the EC just a bit cooler. Kind of AWT with some sort of a compromise, but the EC still sucks.

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Didn't Scott just say they are caving to each other? You have a singular view.

They both didn't equally budge and the euro seems like it made the least change, but any little change helps. I still think we will be rather mild after the 12th or so, but before then...we still have a shot of something between the 10-12th or so. Like I said yesterday, I think the euro will win for now.

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They both didn't equally budge and the euro seems like it made the least change, but any little change helps. I still think we will be rather mild after the 12th or so, but before then...we still have a shot of something between the 10-12th or so. Like I said yesterday, I think the euro will win for now.

I will say the signal is still a little questionable in the 10-12, but the EC has somewhat of a better signal today.

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GEFS moved twds the Euro..more than the Euro moving..like clockwork

Well we know which one is better but it doesn't look like it will be one or the other but a compromise biased towards the euro. Euro has better skill and it has more ensemble members so it stand to reason we should weight it towards the euro...but understand if there are huge differences like we've been seeing there will be some sort of compromise and that appears to be what is happening.

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I have never seen a winter with so many weenie terms being thrown around, all in the hope a pattern would change or bring snow.

Strat warming

tropical forcing

roundy

pna

every winter has them, this winter was just obnoxious..........its time to move on if you live on the CP, and darn close for the interior of course different story in cne and nne. Pitchers and Catchers reporting momentarily, March Madness around the corner, and The Masters. Enjoy this weekend, the weather is magnificent.

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I have never seen a winter with so many weenie terms being thrown around, all in the hope a pattern would change or bring snow.

Strat warming

tropical forcing

roundy

pna

every winter has them, this winter was just obnoxious..........its time to move on if you live on the CP, and darn close for the interior of course different story in cne and nne. Pitchers and Catchers reporting momentarily, March Madness around the corner, and The Masters. Enjoy this weekend, the weather is magnificent.

Cpt. Obvious libations

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