Chris L Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How is it possible the OP ECMWF is cold while the OP ECMWF ENS and Weeklies are warm after? hmm... All I know is: next weekend had better bring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 850s are a blowtorch on the weeklies, other than that par for the course this winter, we will know by wed or thur what models had the right idea regarding the mjo and tropical forcing in the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Mjo forecast on the ecmwf is much more realistic with it heading for the cod once it gets solidly into phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 From what I saw it was pretty warm. Above to at times much above I did see them. They are warm, but if that pattern happened, we could sneak a SWFE or something perhaps. It doesn't matter..week 3 and 4 could do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Another weenie run of the GEFS. Wow. Can't believe the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Another weenie run of the GEFS. Wow. Can't believe the difference. The OP run was a big weenie run too with that storm around Feb 15-16. The ensembles are so bullish rebuiling the western ridge after a slight relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Another weenie run of the GEFS. Wow. Can't believe the difference. Cold and dry like the OP GFS? Its like 14 days without a synoptic precip event... a couple cold fronts and squall type stuff but man this could be a boring couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Badly in need of a recurving typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This isn't a serious post but I do find it funny how even the 12z GFS is an ice box for two weeks with no synoptic precipitation events (read: very dry)... then the first real low pressure system to affect New England happens at hour 360 and its a cutter. That would be our luck this winter... we go cold and dry for two weeks and then the first storm we see after that long period ends up tracking up the Saint Lawrence Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The OP run was a big weenie run too with that storm around Feb 15-16. The ensembles are so bullish rebuiling the western ridge after a slight relaxation. Its amazing that even on a "weenie run" the first storm system to affect us is progged to be over two weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This isn't a serious post but I do find it funny how even the 12z GFS is an ice box for two weeks with no synoptic precipitation events (read: very dry)... then the first real low pressure system to affect New England happens at hour 360 and its a cutter. That would be our luck this winter... we go cold and dry for two weeks and then the first storm we see after that long period ends up tracking up the Saint Lawrence Valley. 3G post, 18 Z is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 3G post, 18 Z is out. Yeah I'm just using that as an example of a giant kick in the nutz, lol. We'd deal with -20C to -30C air at H85 for a bit and then warm up just in time for our first synoptic event in 15 days to be a rainer. That would be the icing on the cake this winter, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its amazing that even on a "weenie run" the first storm system to affect us is progged to be over two weeks away. can't sweat the details so far out, but the large-scale pattern is decent with multiple chances feb 10-16 quite the gfs/gefs/gem vs. euro battle setting up... given the euro's abysmal performance this season, i wouldn't be surprised if it caves and we have something to track as we get closer... on the other hand, we have a long seasonal tendency for imploding threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeah I'm just using that as an example of a giant kick in the nutz, lol. We'd deal with -20C to -30C air at H85 for a bit and then warm up just in time for our first synoptic event in 15 days to be a rainer. That would be the icing on the cake this winter, haha. Lots of ENS support for the 10-12 period and if we indeed get a monster Arctic airmass, lockup massive upslope for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I am not expecting any blockbuster storms (pressure wise) I just dont think the pna ridge ever gets ampified enough with the lower heights in ak, however, I do think we will be blindsided by something, a nice little suprise or two when models dont pick up on it until very close in, a miller b or amped up sw, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Loop this, crazy cold, watch Europe, Australia and the AK cold path over the top and down to us. http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_t850a_plan.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Loop this, crazy cold, watch Europe, Australia and the AK cold path over the top and down to us. http://policlimate.c...t850a_plan.html What initially jumps out at me is that it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere and the balance of cool anomalies appears spread out there. We have cold areas, but they are small and out numbered and out spatially oriented by warm anomalies up in the North - these are all relative to season of course. They are having cool summer while we are having warm winter. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ya another day another day of waiting to see the battle of the EC o GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 EC ens in the 11-15 increase the ridging slightly into AK and shift the US trough axis a little east. It's still pretty warm in the northeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 EC ens in the 11-15 increase the ridging slightly into AK and shift the US trough axis a little east. It's still pretty warm in the northeast though. Yeah the GEFS came in a bit warmer and the EC just a bit cooler. Kind of AWT with some sort of a compromise, but the EC still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Shocking that the GEFS are caving to the Euro ens..Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Shocking that the GEFS are caving to the Euro ens..Disgusting Didn't Scott just say they are caving to each other? You have a singular view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Didn't Scott just say they are caving to each other? You have a singular view. They both didn't equally budge and the euro seems like it made the least change, but any little change helps. I still think we will be rather mild after the 12th or so, but before then...we still have a shot of something between the 10-12th or so. Like I said yesterday, I think the euro will win for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 They both didn't equally budge and the euro seems like it made the least change, but any little change helps. I still think we will be rather mild after the 12th or so, but before then...we still have a shot of something between the 10-12th or so. Like I said yesterday, I think the euro will win for now. I will say the signal is still a little questionable in the 10-12, but the EC has somewhat of a better signal today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Didn't Scott just say they are caving to each other? You have a singular view. GEFS moved twds the Euro..more than the Euro moving..like clockwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GEFS moved twds the Euro..more than the Euro moving..like clockwork Well we know which one is better but it doesn't look like it will be one or the other but a compromise biased towards the euro. Euro has better skill and it has more ensemble members so it stand to reason we should weight it towards the euro...but understand if there are huge differences like we've been seeing there will be some sort of compromise and that appears to be what is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We've had a lot of bad luck this year. AO goes neg, cold spills to the wrong side. Anyone see the thread on the main forum regrading cold in Europe? Accumulating snow in Rome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We've had a lot of bad luck this year. AO goes neg, cold spills to the wrong side. Anyone see the thread on the main forum regrading cold in Europe? Accumulating snow in Rome! When in Rome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I have never seen a winter with so many weenie terms being thrown around, all in the hope a pattern would change or bring snow. Strat warming tropical forcing roundy pna every winter has them, this winter was just obnoxious..........its time to move on if you live on the CP, and darn close for the interior of course different story in cne and nne. Pitchers and Catchers reporting momentarily, March Madness around the corner, and The Masters. Enjoy this weekend, the weather is magnificent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I have never seen a winter with so many weenie terms being thrown around, all in the hope a pattern would change or bring snow. Strat warming tropical forcing roundy pna every winter has them, this winter was just obnoxious..........its time to move on if you live on the CP, and darn close for the interior of course different story in cne and nne. Pitchers and Catchers reporting momentarily, March Madness around the corner, and The Masters. Enjoy this weekend, the weather is magnificent. Cpt. Obvious libations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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