Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Tip gets his V-Day massacre in the form of a warm spell on the EC, but lets see what it does afterwards. It's slowly coming up WRT heights near AK. LOL. will be interested to see how the weeklies look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It still will not give up on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The MJO differences in NCEP vs Euro (and UK) are pretty important imo as far as getting a colder pattern going. NCEP keeps the forcing strong and looks to be heading all the way around to 8-1-2(maybe) while ECM brings it through but at a much weaker amplitide. Could the tropical forcing be a major factor that accounts for the stark differences in the long range? NCEP ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Tip gets his V-Day massacre in the form of a warm spell on the EC, but lets see what it does afterwards. It's slowly coming up WRT heights near AK. Yeah still looks repulsive in the Feb 13-16 time range, but it def looks like there could be some ridging building back into AK/NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It means that once we lose the influence of the Alaskan vortex (PNA ridge), we can start benefiting (if you like winter anyway) from the changing global state that is already in progress for numerous areas ... when is the influence of the alaskan vortex waning....like 72hours? or TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 not trusting euro model torches 2 weeks out but the GEFS has owned the euro w/ MJO forecasts in the short term lately DOES ANYONE have the link that used to be on raleighwx for MJO phase and historically associated 500mb anomalies / based on month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't know. Still the euro does not want to let go of an awful 11-15 day torch. It did try to raise heights just a bit so we'll have to see if the trend continues, because that will have a big effect of storm track..not necessarily overall temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Seems like the strat warming worked, and Europe is paying the price. More so than locally, yes... I posted about this earlier, elaborating how the eurasia is in the deep freeze as it has become clear the -AO loading took place almost entirely on that side of the pool. It may shift around if can get out of this Global wave cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 More so than locally, yes... I posted about this earlier, elaborating how the eurasia is in the deep freeze as it has become clear the -AO loading took place almost entirely on that side of the pool. It may shift around if can get out of this Global wave cycle. Pretty amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 HM is ballz to wallz cold and stormy. Gotta ride the hot hand I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't know. Still the euro does not want to let go of an awful 11-15 day torch. It did try to raise heights just a bit so we'll have to see if the trend continues, because that will have a big effect of storm track..not necessarily overall temps. Just imho, I'm not really too distracted by the Euro these days as it has recently been out-done by the GFS in verification through D8! ...yes, that's 1-8. THAT's pretty amazing, too. That's the 30 day mean, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Man the differences starting at d10 are enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 HM is ballz to wallz cold and stormy. Gotta ride the hot hand I guess Like MJ in the 4'th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Just imho, I'm not really too distracted by the Euro these days as it has recently been out-done by the GFS in verification through D8! ...yes, that's 1-8. THAT's pretty amazing, too. That's the 30 day mean, too. Amazing how the worm turns. La Nina giving it fits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Some awesome discussion in the pinned medium range thread on the main board, amazing differences between the gfs and euro, the mjo and all sorts of goodies. Its going to be fun to watch it all play out and to see what guidance was correct or if indeed its a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I've been onto the Euro as suspect a few times over the last 45 days (actually), but hadn't bothered to look it up. I have written a couple diatribing opines, odes to the Euro throwing us phantoms over that time. Not surprising to see it graphically - no. One must wonder why that is.. As of last, I thought the Euro still had superior ingest. Interesting. Perhaps there is something native to the pattern types so far that is more suited to GFS bias envelope - making it stick out as the superior performer. Who knows. This comes from Dr. Roundy via Phil in the main forum on the stark difference between the Euro and GEFS as of late to answer some of our questions. As for what Roundy had to say about this current episode... hes certainly interested in the current asymmetrical appearance of the MJO currently and whether or not it will actually become more symmetric at the equator like the forecast projects. For those that like cold in the east, a more symmetrical MJO or even a MJO asymmetric in the northern hemisphere would be preferred for a more significant impact on the mid-latitude pattern in the United States. One other nugget worth sharing is that the reason why the GFS and ECMWF have different magnitudes with respect to the MJO has a lot to do with how much they are developing the TCs over the South Pacific. The GFS is much more bullish on tropical cyclogenesis which would tend to enhance the MJO signal. The ECMWF has been much more bearish with development, and thus the -OLR anomalies are not as impressive and thus a weaker amplitude MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We've seen better warmings then this, but we'll take it... The troposphere / stratosphere interaction will continue to allow this to make it down. Time to get that Siberian Block to the pole... It's a "weak" propagator - interestingly enough. The u-mean wind anomalies are almost non-detecting on this - that makes it ...maybe "a little" dubious to be causal for the -AO; but then again, ...here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This comes from Dr. Roundy via Phil in the main forum on the stark difference between the Euro and GEFS As for what Roundy had to say about this current episode... hes certainly interested in the current asymmetrical appearance of the MJO currently and whether or not it will actually become more symmetric at the equator like the forecast projects. For those that like cold in the east, a more symmetrical MJO or even a MJO asymmetric in the northern hemisphere would be preferred for a more significant impact on the mid-latitude pattern in the United States. One other nugget worth sharing is that the reason why the GFS and ECMWF have different magnitudes with respect to the MJO has a lot to do with how much they are developing the TCs over the South Pacific. The GFS is much more bullish on tropical cyclogenesis which would tend to enhance the MJO signal. The ECMWF has been much more bearish with development, and thus the -OLR anomalies are not as impressive and thus a weaker amplitude MJO. I remember reading a paper about the distribution/density of convection above and below the Equator as having an impact on corellate-ability of the MJO on middle latitudes. Fascinating ...and intuitively correct stuff really. What I'm less clear on is why the OLR from TC's counts all that much, because the MJO domain only extends above and below the Equator to ~ 15 degrees N and S. The typical TC genesis extends outside that domain overlaps, but is 10N-30N and 10S to 30S. Meh, I suppose it doesn't matter when you think about it. Bottom line is, equatorward convection in general, and where the source of large masses of latent heat are injecting into the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I remember reading a paper about the distribution/density of convection above and below the Equator as having an impact on corellate-ability of the MJO on middle latitudes. Fascinating ...and intuitively correct stuff really. What I'm less clear on is why the OLR from TC's counts all that much, because the MJO domain only extends above and below the Equator to ~ 15 degrees N and S. The typical TC genesis extends outside that domain overlaps, but is 10N-30N and 10S to 30S. Meh, I suppose it doesn't matter when you think about it. Bottom line is, equatorward convection in general, and where the source of large masses of latent heat are injecting into the circulation. Well some of the TC activity down there stems from the Monsoon trough. It's actually around 10-15S so it would fit. There has been a ton of convection down there. I know..I had to map out areas of SCT-BKN and BKN convection down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well some of the TC activity down there stems from the Monsoon trough. It's actually around 10-15S so it would fit. There has been a ton of convection down there. I know..I had to map out areas of SCT-BKN and BKN convection down that way. Yeah, hense the overlap.. TC DEFINITELY pump HUGE amounts of latent heat into the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeah, hense the overlap.. TC DEFINITELY pump HUGE amounts of latent heat into the atmosphere. Oh yeah, definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Oh yeah, definitely. Okay ...so, which model scored the best this last TC season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Okay ...so, which model scored the best this last TC season? I think EC? But maybe not by much. I think the GFS was close and even did better the season before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think EC? But maybe not by much. I think the GFS was close and even did better the season before. Probably was... because that way, the operational run's penchants for disappointment gets to be rooted in veracious cause ...effectively/affectively ending winter before it began. Seriously though, not sure we can even ask the question without breaking out each Basin, and, each Basin by season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeklies are an unmitigated disaster and brutal torch weeks 3 and 4..even week 2 isn't cold..Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeklies are an unmitigated disaster and brutal torch weeks 3 and 4..even week 2 isn't cold..Brutal What did I tell you. The new set of weeklies is always worse. This hasn't stopped...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeklies are an unmitigated disaster and brutal torch weeks 3 and 4..even week 2 isn't cold..Brutal well that's the last one..it's over..next week is March..I have had it..lets hope it remains warm the next few weeks so it can be a early warm spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weeklies are an unmitigated disaster and brutal torch weeks 3 and 4..even week 2 isn't cold..Brutal who cares what the EC predicts weeks 3 and 4....and i would say EXACTLY the same thing if it was calling for cold. lets see wether the EC or GFS is more correct w/ MJO ....great thread in general weather discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If you look at the H5 pattern, it wasn't a total disaster for this area as it had a weak west based block it seemed, but it was pretty mild at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If you look at the H5 pattern, it wasn't a total disaster for this area as it had a weak west based block it seemed, but it was pretty mild at 850mb. From what I saw it was pretty warm. Above to at times much above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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