Jonger Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Do you think these 108 and 180 hour cold outbreaks depicted on the GFS are actually right for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro not only caved to gfs on 5H low for sunday out west (CONGRATS To Snow goose for calling out the euro yesterday given other models positions and bias's) .....but it cooled off the torch for mon and tues. mon 12z 850's for bos -5 tue 12z 850's for bos -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Polar Express on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro not only caved to gfs on 5H low for sunday out west (CONGRATS To Snow goose for calling out the euro yesterday given other models positions and bias's) .....but it cooled off the torch for mon and tues. mon 12z 850's for bos -5 tue 12z 850's for bos -2 It looked funny to begin with, but it honestly doesn't have a difference in sensible wx anyways. Monday and Tuesday still look mild. westerly downslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Polar Express on the euro? looks that way. dropping an extension of the polar vortext right down into the GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Somewhere in Massachusetts a middle aged man is rethinking his 200' swan dive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 looks that way. dropping an extension of the polar vortext right down into the GL Sub-500 thicknesses in all of SNE at D9, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 More lows around 0F with bare ground? That was so great in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Sub-500 thicknesses in all of SNE at D9, lol. yeah -32C 850s flirting with NNE...cold stuff there. if there was some snow cover over the conus that would be a cold run with the big HP spread out next week despite the only moderately cool 850s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 just need everything to dig sharper and further west...a 1 or 2 day polar intrusion is kinda meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 does the euro look like it has opportunities for snow..or just cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 More lows around 0F with bare ground? That was so great in early January. No bggie, We go from warm and dry to cold and dry, Just have to throw on a jacket is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No bggie, We go from warm and dry to cold and dry, Just have to throw on a jacket is all big, big changes are coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the op Euro I really don't see any "useful" negative NAO through 180 hours. I mean it is possible the indices may show negative NAO, but it's really the placement that matters. The polar vortex is splitting and a western lobe could be good, but the whole thing is very far north....as in 65 north. One thing is that the EPO certainly looks negative and yet the Euro has a cutoff in the far Southwest US which seems contradictory to that. So yeah we might get darn cold for a couple days in a dry fashion...been there done that this year already. I was -12F in January, but what did it buy me? just need everything to dig sharper and further west...a 1 or 2 day polar intrusion is kinda meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro does have an interesting s/w for Feb 8-9...but it doesn't quite get amped enough for anything...but its something that could easily produce a system if it were a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro not only caved to gfs on 5H low for sunday out west (CONGRATS To Snow goose for calling out the euro yesterday given other models positions and bias's) .....but it cooled off the torch for mon and tues. mon 12z 850's for bos -5 tue 12z 850's for bos -2 We haven't won yet, the fact that only 3 or so of the 12Z GFS ensemble members are as suppressed on the operational run at 72 hours could be significant, a good 5-7 members look much more like the UKIE/GEM than they do the op run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I guess I'm transitioning into late season mode wrt to torches. I'm mainly playing now for the chance of some (any) decent snow events. The last few days wiped out most of my snow cover so if it wants to torch for a day of two I just don't much care anymore. I'm searching the charts for any possible shot at a snow event as I usually do into April..because I can't stop myself. Euro not only caved to gfs on 5H low for sunday out west (CONGRATS To Snow goose for calling out the euro yesterday given other models positions and bias's) .....but it cooled off the torch for mon and tues. mon 12z 850's for bos -5 tue 12z 850's for bos -2 I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If it's just a choice between suppression (some rain for the MA as it shears on out) or a cutter (one day of 50F and a line of showers with a front).... Well then.... I don't even know why we would care. Unless it has some effect on the future pattern later in the week. We haven't won yet, the fact that only 3 or so of the 12Z GFS ensemble members are as suppressed on the operational run at 72 hours could be significant, a good 5-7 members look much more like the UKIE/GEM than they do the op run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 big, big changes are coming! They certainly have since December, We are still waiting for them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 At least you still have snow cover. I'm looking at 80% brown ground for the first time since around or just after New Years. In terms of snow cover, even in 05-06 I managed to stay white way into February. 06-07 of course we had zippo until later January, but that was a year that redeemed itself brilliantly out here. They certainly have since December, We are still waiting for them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 At least you still have snow cover. I'm looking at 80% brown ground for the first time since around or just after New Years. In terms of snow cover, even in 05-06 I managed to stay white way into February. 06-07 of course we had zippo until later January, but that was a year that redeemed itself brilliantly out here. Yup, We sure do 6" worth, Not that i can do anything with it but we have it which a lot of folks don't have, If this is what we end up with it will go quick and be an early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This is just an uber-negative AO on both the Euro and GEFs 12z means ...just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This is just an uber-negative AO on both the Euro and GEFs 12z means ...just wow. Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years. Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years. Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off... I know this is meteorologically shallow of me, but what does that all mean for sensible weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years. Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off... Seems like the strat warming worked, and Europe is paying the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Seems like the strat warming worked, and Europe is paying the price. Yeah...I check the weather for Italy regularly now and Florence has had cold/snow for the better part of a week now...with another week or more of rather wintry weather. I guess we're just on the wrong side of the globe I'm sure we'll have noticeable affects by Patriots Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Seems like the strat warming worked, and Europe is paying the price. We've seen better warmings then this, but we'll take it... The troposphere / stratosphere interaction will continue to allow this to make it down. Time to get that Siberian Block to the pole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I know this is meteorologically shallow of me, but what does that all mean for sensible weather? It means that once we lose the influence of the Alaskan vortex (PNA ridge), we can start benefiting (if you like winter anyway) from the changing global state that is already in progress for numerous areas ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It means that once we lose the influence of the Alaskan vortex (PNA ridge), we can start benefiting (if you like winter anyway) from the changing global state that is already in progress for numerous areas ... When can we realistically start benefitting from the changing global state. PNA is positive now. AO negative. Does it all have to do with the NAO being east-based negative. Man, it seems like you need all of the planets to line up to get a decent EC threat these days. How in the world did we manage so many storms last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Tip gets his V-Day massacre in the form of a warm spell on the EC, but lets see what it does afterwards. It's slowly coming up WRT heights near AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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