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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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Whats amazing to me is the unified agreement between all the GFS ens members, one would think there would be outliers. Leads me to believe a compromise like you suggest might be in order. Lets hope the 10-12 period pops back into play.

Its been there the whole time on the GEFS/GGEM ensembles...Euro ensembles have actually had it too, though last night it had a more diffuse looking signal...there's definitely still hope for something in there. Euro actually almost gave us a system on Feb 7 last night...close miss.

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I wish I knew the physical reasons why but that would entail all sorts of model physics and such...I'm sure the Euro ensembles will "win"...but even if they win on a 70/30 or 60/40 compromise, it would create a different look than taking them 100%.

Here's a completely responsible reply to this: Because it is the least favorable ...or "wanted" result. (sarcasm)

Kidding aside, there is kind of a creepy vibe about all this going on where points of interest/potential along the on-going monitoring are not just seemingly so, they are being surgically deconstructed. As a result "disapppointment" seeems to be a momentum on to its self.

I think that sentiment really nicely encapsulates this hideous voyage. However, this is making more and more sense to me as time goes by.

I posted much above that there is an off-the-charts large PP anomaly in northern Asia/Russia (with roots to the tropapause btw), and that does take some of the creepiness out of it all because it at last plausibly asserts a reason why we are being so systemically screwed for entertaining winter weather; particularly when we have a Western Hemisphere MJO feeding into a +PNA, and a -AO ongoing... 1978 should blush at them odds, yet, NOPE!

Basically, the cold transport for all that signaling is simply completely abandoned this side of the NH, in lieu of almost total deposition on the Eurasia side. There is a risk with evaluating AOs alone. The problem is that the AO has a unilateral extension in all directions S of the geographical North Pole. That means that negative values, or positive for that matter, do not necessarily mean good or bad (depending on one's point of view) for your location. The resulting transports can distribute entirely randomly, and in that chaos can born a bonanza, or a bummer. To put it "mildly", the arriving situation appears to have chosen the bummer.

To assist in alleviating some of that AO uncertainty, that's when the EPO and NAO become most important. Those two indices really hold the key toward "assuring" that the cold or warm transport events will in fact be in North America, or at least some of them.

Right now, as we type, although falling, the EPO is technnically still positive ;) It's around +1.5SD but should be around -.25 by D4, and down around -1.0SD by D6 or 7, perhaps maxing around D11 at -1.5SD. Not shockingly negative, but certainly a total downward adjustment of 3 or more total standard deviations argues for transport into N/A - which heretofore, we haven't had.

This more than less holds true for the North Atlantic Oscillation. It is minimally negative at this time at CDC's two channels, and minimally positive at CPC. However, both are so close to 0.0 it all really argues for N/S (NO SKILL) - meaning, the domain from a purely linearly statistical argument is evenly exerting on the field at our latitude and may thus not be factorable enough to consider. The former EPO signal is giant by comparison, and since it is modeled to do so, there is intrinsically more determinism coming from that source region. We drill the EPO, we load cold.

I believe alot of what we are encountering is problematically rooted in that we have not just yet set up macro-scaled gradient anomalies in the thermal fields over N/A. Yes, it is cold N and hot S. That's true always. But we mean specifically that mean baroclinic intensity is on the paltry side. Much of that has a way of feeding back into regions of storm genesis, where deeping/deeper rates of development then take on deeper geopotential cores; in multitude they integrate/lead to retrograde tendency overall. Without that, progressive flows will tend to dominate. I think from that very reasonable application of fundemental Meteorology, combined with the fact the progression has dominated the flow (hurt Euro verification numbers, too, btw) I believe we really need that EPO mechanism in play as a start.

Yes there is a sharp Western Pacific MJO status that is heavily forecasted to pass boldly into the Western Hemisphere region. It that parlays forcing into +PNA, when the EPO is finally doing us good, things would get interesting in a hurry. But ... that is all predicated on the assumption that the MJO is modeled correctly, that permutations in the PNA don't rear just in time to f it all up, and the EPO is also being handled correctly. Mess these up...we go blithely from misery to spring imho. (although, bowling season notwithstanding, but that's something different).

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is it me or are the euro ens members prolly all over the place with surface low placement by sun eve.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif

GFS has been consistent with moving the SLP steadily east and under the confluence OTS for days.

will the 12z euro crap the bed or will GFS ? or did the euro ens already break to the gfs?lol

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is it me or are the euro ens members prolly all over the place with surface low placement by sun eve.

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS096.gif

GFS has been consistent with moving the SLP steadily east and under the confluence OTS for days.

will the 12z euro crap the bed or will GFS ? or did the euro ens already break to the gfs?lol

The low weakens under the confluence of the trough over our area, so that's probably why it looks crappy as depicted.

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I don't know...something is going to give in. Makes you wonder about the EC a little.

I'd take a compromise at this point...that would keep us with storm chances through the 3rd week of the month with maybe only a brief 2-3 day relaxation.

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alot of mets have said the euro has been as crap as anyone (that is models referenced by pro's) this year ...if i recall

Not in the 11-15 day, although that does not mean it can't be off on a few things. Like Will said, even if it ends up being the "more" correct ensemble...slight differences in the heights out west will have a pretty big outcome for this part of the country. Farther south, probably not.

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Here's another problem.... "...AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC IS TO REMAIN BETWEEN

130W-100W DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HRS..."

It's a problem because it is pulling equitorial mid level air up into the Caribbean, and this is adding to the SE ridge - this condition can persist independent of mid latitude evolution.

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Based on those Hovmollers you have to think the GEFS is doing a better job than Euro Ens with MJO development???

Yeah near term is GEFS, but the forecast is what is like night and day. I mean the differences are ridiculous and usually when that happens..guidance tries to compromise somewhat.

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Bowing to the one you only use to wipe with? Good. I need extra TP with me being the only male in the house....

i suppose.

i don't know about the rest of the globe (which i know is what the topic at hand is), but i would definitely say the GFS beat out the euro and ggem with respect to the cut-off over the nation's heartland. in the end, won't make much of a difference in terms of sensible weather, but seems the idea of a storm cutting west is out.

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i suppose.

i don't know about the rest of the globe (which i know is what the topic at hand is), but i would definitely say the GFS beat out the euro and ggem with respect to the cut-off over the nation's heartland. in the end, won't make much of a difference in terms of sensible weather, but seems the idea of a storm cutting west is out.

I was just parroting the rev tongue in cheek. Yes on your points.

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