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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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Interesting... Northern Russia initialized surface PP at 12z at over 1060mb ! Giant high pressure, and I mean covering all of northern Eurasia. The entire region is getting easterly flow from Moscow to France and Spain - I haven't seen that in recent times.

Guess we know where the blocking from this -AO wound up; if it's going to do that than we'll get nothing: AO chose the wrong side of the pole to convey

Russia 06Z Thursday SYNOP observations.

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Don't know if this was already posted

How un-snowy has it been? So far, Boston has seen five feet less snow than last winter

Since July 2011, Boston has accumulated 7.8 inches of snow, compared with 67.1 inches by this date last year. That means that Boston has seen about five feet less snow than last winter, a much-needed relief after a tough winter.

Although several computer models show the next two weeks on track to bring average temperatures and average precipitation, meteorologist Rebecca Gould said to take the models with a grain of salt.

“The models try to bring us back to climatological norms,” she said. “But clearly, this has not been a normal season.”

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Another one...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Snow has been missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it's not just snow. It's practically the season that's gone AWOL.

"What winter?" asked Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. For the Lower 48, January was the third-least snowy on record, according to the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University. Records for the amount of ground covered by snow go back to 1967.

http://news.yahoo.com/wheres-snow-not-lower-48-elsewhere-230700692.html

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Don't know if this was already posted

How un-snowy has it been? So far, Boston has seen five feet less snow than last winter

Since July 2011, Boston has accumulated 7.8 inches of snow, compared with 67.1 inches by this date last year. That means that Boston has seen about five feet less snow than last winter, a much-needed relief after a tough winter.

Although several computer models show the next two weeks on track to bring average temperatures and average precipitation, meteorologist Rebecca Gould said to take the models with a grain of salt.

“The models try to bring us back to climatological norms,” she said. “But clearly, this has not been a normal season.”

Comparing this season's totals with last season's above-normal totals is of course misleading, though not surprising for a news story since it makes things seem more dramatic. It plays into the fallacy that has created such a sense of entitlement for some on this board: that the recent snowy years are "normal."

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Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge.

Yeah and it keeps getting uglier to in the 11-15 day, on the EC.

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Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge.

If we were to do a 10 year analysis of GFS runs on 2/2 we'd probably see that it's 2 week forecasts were only marginally more accurate than the groundhog.

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Why is it though?

I wish I knew the physical reasons why but that would entail all sorts of model physics and such...I'm sure the Euro ensembles will "win"...but even if they win on a 70/30 or 60/40 compromise, it would create a different look than taking them 100%.

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I wish I knew the physical reasons why but that would entail all sorts of model physics and such...I'm sure the Euro ensembles will "win"...but even if they win on a 70/30 or 60/40 compromise, it would create a different look than taking them 100%.

Thanks, will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

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How wrong they are is interesting too...Euro could win with a 2 to 1 weight advantage but that would probably still keep us in the game for storm threats if that happened.

Yeah it would. It's been showing a very slight tendency to raise heights out west, which to most doesn't mean much, but it could be the difference between a front hung up near NYC vs I-90 or something like that. Overall it looks bad and is mild, but it does display some overrunning signs after the 12th. Given that the other models are sort of hanging tight...I don't see the euro looking much worse than it already does in the 11-15 day. It will probably be a case where the other models finally give in, but I wouldn't be shocked if the euro does slightly relax the big -PNA just a bit. It would still be a very mild overall pattern across the CONUS, but for our neck of the woods... especially the interior, these little subtle differences may mean a lot.

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That is the best part of your discussion I have gleaned. Kevin just saying they are wrong 100% is well :weenie:

Thats the issue with perception vs reality...its like I was discussing in the torch thread...the debate wasn't whether we would torch, but if it was going to be a record breaking torch...but since people hate torches, they kind of view any torch as horrible and seemingly unbelievable with respect to past climo.

Opposite is true for snow events....if the Euro ensembles beat the GFS ensembles on a 60/40 compromise or a 65/35 and we end up with a solid snow event within the next 2 weeks, everyone will say how the GFS ensembles "beat" the Euro ensembles when in fact the opposite would be true, but the Euro ensembles did not win by a large enough margin to avoid a snow threat.

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Thats the issue with perception vs reality...its like I was discussing in the torch thread...the debate wasn't whether we would torch, but if it was going to be a record breaking torch...but since people hate torches, they kind of view any torch as horrible and seemingly unbelievable with respect to past climo.

Opposite is true for snow events....if the Euro ensembles beat the GFS ensembles on a 60/40 compromise or a 65/35 and we end up with a solid snow event within the next 2 weeks, everyone will say how the GFS ensembles "beat" the Euro ensembles when in fact the opposite would be true, but the Euro ensembles did not win by a large enough margin to avoid a snow threat.

Whats amazing to me is the unified agreement between all the GFS ens members, one would think there would be outliers. Leads me to believe a compromise like you suggest might be in order. Lets hope the 10-12 period pops back into play.

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