Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Not all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 00z GEFS keeps the +PNA and and keeps heights high over the Gulf of Alaska. The problem remains, however, the PV over Hudson Bay/Baffin Bay that keeps the NAO neutral (or east based) with a relatively flat flow across central and eastern CONUS unable to buckle much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Interesting... Northern Russia initialized surface PP at 12z at over 1060mb ! Giant high pressure, and I mean covering all of northern Eurasia. The entire region is getting easterly flow from Moscow to France and Spain - I haven't seen that in recent times. Guess we know where the blocking from this -AO wound up; if it's going to do that than we'll get nothing: AO chose the wrong side of the pole to convey Russia 06Z Thursday SYNOP observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I would love to be in a better spot than Kevin for snow. More so to piss him off than for my own benefit. Unless you move to the far NW hills(like Norfolk) that will never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Unless you move to the far NW hills(like Norfolk) that will never happen Not true. You think you get more snow than you really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Unless you move to the far NW hills(like Norfolk) that will never happen Do you think you get more snow than me? I probably average at least 5-10 higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don't know if this was already posted How un-snowy has it been? So far, Boston has seen five feet less snow than last winter Since July 2011, Boston has accumulated 7.8 inches of snow, compared with 67.1 inches by this date last year. That means that Boston has seen about five feet less snow than last winter, a much-needed relief after a tough winter. Although several computer models show the next two weeks on track to bring average temperatures and average precipitation, meteorologist Rebecca Gould said to take the models with a grain of salt. “The models try to bring us back to climatological norms,” she said. “But clearly, this has not been a normal season.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Another one... WASHINGTON (AP) — Snow has been missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it's not just snow. It's practically the season that's gone AWOL. "What winter?" asked Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. For the Lower 48, January was the third-least snowy on record, according to the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University. Records for the amount of ground covered by snow go back to 1967. http://news.yahoo.com/wheres-snow-not-lower-48-elsewhere-230700692.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Since July 2011, Boston has accumulated 7.8 inches of snow, compared with 67.1 inches by this date last year. That means that Boston has seen about five feet less snow than last winter, a much-needed relief after a tough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don't know if this was already posted How un-snowy has it been? So far, Boston has seen five feet less snow than last winter Since July 2011, Boston has accumulated 7.8 inches of snow, compared with 67.1 inches by this date last year. That means that Boston has seen about five feet less snow than last winter, a much-needed relief after a tough winter. Although several computer models show the next two weeks on track to bring average temperatures and average precipitation, meteorologist Rebecca Gould said to take the models with a grain of salt. “The models try to bring us back to climatological norms,” she said. “But clearly, this has not been a normal season.” Comparing this season's totals with last season's above-normal totals is of course misleading, though not surprising for a news story since it makes things seem more dramatic. It plays into the fallacy that has created such a sense of entitlement for some on this board: that the recent snowy years are "normal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge. I wonder which camp is going to win..hmmmm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge. Yeah and it keeps getting uglier to in the 11-15 day, on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge. Why is it though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Its still amazing to see the differences between the GEFS/GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles...even now only 10-11 days out. It was one thing when it was 15 days out, but now we are getting closer and both camps refuse to budge. If we were to do a 10 year analysis of GFS runs on 2/2 we'd probably see that it's 2 week forecasts were only marginally more accurate than the groundhog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Why is it though? I wish I knew the physical reasons why but that would entail all sorts of model physics and such...I'm sure the Euro ensembles will "win"...but even if they win on a 70/30 or 60/40 compromise, it would create a different look than taking them 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I wish I knew the physical reasons why but that would entail all sorts of model physics and such...I'm sure the Euro ensembles will "win"...but even if they win on a 70/30 or 60/40 compromise, it would create a different look than taking them 100%. Thanks, will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I mean seriously...you look at the 06z GEFS, and the differences are staggering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 I mean seriously...you look at the 06z GEFS, and the differences are staggering. Look at the GEM ensembles...I think those are even worse...full latitude ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I mean seriously...you look at the 06z GEFS, and the differences are staggering. Have both camps been insistent on what they're showing for runs and runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I mean seriously...you look at the 06z GEFS, and the differences are staggering. They're wrong. It's simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think part of the problem stems to how the models handle the convection in the west pac and indo. Despite those phase diagrams, euro is trying to bring convection back into the IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Pattern appears to have changed, I'm only +5 so far today, down from +20 a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 They're wrong. It's simple They probably will be, but I find it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 They probably will be, but I find it interesting. How wrong they are is interesting too...Euro could win with a 2 to 1 weight advantage but that would probably still keep us in the game for storm threats if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Pattern appears to have changed, I'm only +5 so far today, down from +20 a few days ago. weak trolling, you miss pete don't ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How wrong they are is interesting too...Euro could win with a 2 to 1 weight advantage but that would probably still keep us in the game for storm threats if that happened. That is the best part of your discussion I have gleaned. Kevin just saying they are wrong 100% is well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How wrong they are is interesting too...Euro could win with a 2 to 1 weight advantage but that would probably still keep us in the game for storm threats if that happened. Yeah it would. It's been showing a very slight tendency to raise heights out west, which to most doesn't mean much, but it could be the difference between a front hung up near NYC vs I-90 or something like that. Overall it looks bad and is mild, but it does display some overrunning signs after the 12th. Given that the other models are sort of hanging tight...I don't see the euro looking much worse than it already does in the 11-15 day. It will probably be a case where the other models finally give in, but I wouldn't be shocked if the euro does slightly relax the big -PNA just a bit. It would still be a very mild overall pattern across the CONUS, but for our neck of the woods... especially the interior, these little subtle differences may mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 That is the best part of your discussion I have gleaned. Kevin just saying they are wrong 100% is well Thats the issue with perception vs reality...its like I was discussing in the torch thread...the debate wasn't whether we would torch, but if it was going to be a record breaking torch...but since people hate torches, they kind of view any torch as horrible and seemingly unbelievable with respect to past climo. Opposite is true for snow events....if the Euro ensembles beat the GFS ensembles on a 60/40 compromise or a 65/35 and we end up with a solid snow event within the next 2 weeks, everyone will say how the GFS ensembles "beat" the Euro ensembles when in fact the opposite would be true, but the Euro ensembles did not win by a large enough margin to avoid a snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Thats the issue with perception vs reality...its like I was discussing in the torch thread...the debate wasn't whether we would torch, but if it was going to be a record breaking torch...but since people hate torches, they kind of view any torch as horrible and seemingly unbelievable with respect to past climo. Opposite is true for snow events....if the Euro ensembles beat the GFS ensembles on a 60/40 compromise or a 65/35 and we end up with a solid snow event within the next 2 weeks, everyone will say how the GFS ensembles "beat" the Euro ensembles when in fact the opposite would be true, but the Euro ensembles did not win by a large enough margin to avoid a snow threat. Whats amazing to me is the unified agreement between all the GFS ens members, one would think there would be outliers. Leads me to believe a compromise like you suggest might be in order. Lets hope the 10-12 period pops back into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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