powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 My biggest snowstorm (and most others) in 2007 was in March in the St. Patty's day storm. I assume you're talking about SNE as Valentines that year was by far the biggie from the Catskills up through the Greens. Honest 2-4 footer. At the ski area we had over 200" fall after Feb 1 in 2007 so winter can still turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I hope it cuts through Lake Ontario. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Lol this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Though as HM alludes to in his write-up in the main thread, the current state in the octant graph may actually just be the result of BS stagnant forcing, and not the MJO "We have not seen a true MJO wave since the autumn with a very long-lived wave that started in late September.This wave went around the equatorial regions nearly 3 times before finally dampening to ENSO forcing by December. Ever since, the tropical forcing has been stagnant. Despite what the octant charts indicate, there are actually two areas where wind/OLR anomalies are juxtaposed for a possible MJO wave. Some of the strongest anomalies, currently, are coming from the Indian Ocean. Roundy also agrees..." All I'm saying is that it's possible we may get some help from that area for once. Recall all the times where patterns looked favorable, the MJO progs had us going into phase 4. Bad. Now, at least most guidance has the wave trying to move east...that's all I mean. Whether it happens or not, it's just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The ridging out west can lead to a variety of storm tracks based on amplitude. Anything from clippers to even Gulf lows. We don't need an icebox Canada either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Based on weeklies as well, you gotta wonder if this setup can last 10-15 days. Looking at the end of the euro ensembles, the AK low still retros and the weeklies support more +pna well into Feb. You figure the setup starts around the 5th, but could last past 10-15 days perhaps. Maybe longer? I suppose that will depends on a few things like tropical forcing, but it does seem stable on the progs, which is good to see. Amplitude may be a little questionable, but it looks pretty darn strong as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Based on weeklies as well, you gotta wonder if this setup can last 10-15 days. Looking at the end of the euro ensembles, the AK low still retros and the weeklies support more +pna well into Feb. You figure the setup starts around the 5th, but could last past 10-15 days perhaps. Maybe longer? I suppose that will depends on a few things like tropical forcing, but it does seem stable on the progs, which is good to see. Amplitude may be a little questionable, but it looks pretty darn strong as modeled. Strongly worded caution. Kevin is nude in his dreams right now......Thanks Scott for your analysis and insight into the long range. Let's hope things hold and improve as they've done as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Great read guys. Hopefully we can still salvage this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Strongly worded caution. Kevin is nude in his dreams right now......Thanks Scott for your analysis and insight into the long range. Let's hope things hold and improve as they've done as we close in. I just hope the amplitude of the ridge doesn't flatten out, or that it goes to crap in a couple of weeks. It's on my mind, but at least it looks ok right now.Getting some -NAO would be epic, but don't see a classic -NAO right now..just some ridging into Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I just hope the amplitude of the ridge doesn't flatten out, or that it goes to crap in a couple of weeks. It's on my mind, but at least it looks ok right now.Getting some -NAO would be epic, but don't see a classic -NAO right now..just some ridging into Greenland. Agreed. I'm less hopeful for any meaningful blocking in the NAO area at this point. I think we get shut out (-NAO) this winter in the midst of the decadal change we are supposedly in the midst of. So we get some PAC help, which might just do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teleskier_vt Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I assume you're talking about SNE as Valentines that year was by far the biggie from the Catskills up through the Greens. Honest 2-4 footer. At the ski area we had over 200" fall after Feb 1 in 2007 so winter can still turn around. Best east coast storm I have ever been a part of, and maybe ever, and I have lived in Lake Tahoe, Seattle, and spent months in Jackson. Managed to get to MRG early that day. What a day.... The St. Paddys day storm was good, too, as was the Easter storm...I believe a foot plus at Stowe that day. I think the winter of 99 had around a 12" season total for BTV in late Jan, and finished close to average, 77"ish. So a turn around is certainly in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 A couple of chances next week on the GFS.....best for the NNE guys but hopeful down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I assume you're talking about SNE as Valentines that year was by far the biggie from the Catskills up through the Greens. Honest 2-4 footer. At the ski area we had over 200" fall after Feb 1 in 2007 so winter can still turn around. Of course he is.....he's from SNE, none of us care how much snow the Catskills got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Nope we don't. Got 6" of concrete that day. Flew out of Logan that day right as it was closing. First time flying too. Of course he is.....he's from SNE, none of us care how much snow the Catskills got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 pattern rearranging itself into something more favorable or re-arranging deck chairs on the titanic winter of 2011-12 hopefully we pull out a nice week or more of winter but i keep hearing torch talk during the first few to several days (4-5) of february in the nyc/ m.a regions before a cooldown...hope that torch isn't someting new england has to endure as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Some of us cared ...24" fell here.... 0Z op GFS looks futile... Even when the AK vortex shifts, the ridge out west is not positioned right and it's just leading to nw flow dry cold here. Whats that getting us to Feb. 10th? Sun angle is going to start being our enemy also soon enough. Of course he is.....he's from SNE, none of us care how much snow the Catskills got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Some of us cared ...24" fell here.... 0Z op GFS looks futile... Even when the AK vortex shifts, the ridge out west is not positioned right and it's just leading to nw flow dry cold here. Whats that getting us to Feb. 10th? Sun angle is going to start being our enemy also soon enough. October didn't seem to care about sun angle so maybe there's still hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I assume you're talking about SNE as Valentines that year was by far the biggie from the Catskills up through the Greens. Honest 2-4 footer. At the ski area we had over 200" fall after Feb 1 in 2007 so winter can still turn around. Yes, that is why I said "and most others"...obviously that wasn epic storm up there, but for a massive majority of the region, St. Patty's day was the bigger storm, even into most of NH and S Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro ensembles continue their theme of a really amped up PNA ridge all the way up into AK...and still the modest ridging in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro ensembles continue their theme of a really amped up PNA ridge all the way up into AK...and still the modest ridging in Greenland. Even stronger on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Even stronger on this run. Really drives the cold into Quebec...and New England more than the 12z ensemble run. Definitely some potential for a cold outbreak if it pans out like that...but the key is getting the ridge far enough north and a little NAO help. Otherwise its probably more like a Feb '06 pattern where its probably seasonal cold but with the western ridging, obviously some chances. 06z GFS really cooled the event for middle of next week...though that is before the pattern shift...but still interesting. Technically its past Feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Really drives the cold into Quebec...and New England more than the 12z ensemble run. Definitely some potential for a cold outbreak if it pans out like that...but the key is getting the ridge far enough north and a little NAO help. Otherwise its probably more like a Feb '06 pattern where its probably seasonal cold but with the western ridging, obviously some chances. 06z GFS really cooled the event for middle of next week...though that is before the pattern shift...but still interesting. Technically its past Feb 1st. Maybe something on the 30th too? At least we can grab some miller b's with ridging out that way, if it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Seems like most of the overnight models and ens lost the early Feb torch and we actually have a couple snowstorms to track next week after this weeks' disaster. 1 week..1 week left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Seems like most of the overnight models and ens lost the early Feb torch and we actually have a couple snowstorms to track next week after this weeks' disaster. 1 week..1 week left in the period They still have the potential for a warm couple days to start February...especially if that low tracks to our northwest...but there is also the chance it kind of rides along more to the east which would limit how warm it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The pattern change WILL begin 2/1 and be complete by 2/5. Believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looping the GFS op shows you the miller b, re-developers that could happen if the pattern shakes out. Not all may be white, but we'll have shots if that pattern were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looping the GFS op shows you the miller b, re-developers that could happen if the pattern shakes out. Not all may be white, but we'll have shots if that pattern were to happen. Yeah that's a nice looking setup on Feb 5...good example of how we can cash in with the increased meridional flow. And lol at the cold shot at 324. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah that's a nice looking setup on Feb 5...good example of how we can cash in with the increased meridional flow. And lol at the cold shot at 324. Yeah it's hinted at some cold shots over the last few runs. I think yesterday had like 486 thicknesses overhead. 1934 repeat..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I suppose we will have one more disaster to go through next week, before anything starts to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah it's hinted at some cold shots over the last few runs. I think yesterday had like 486 thicknesses overhead. 1934 repeat..lol. I remember 492 thicknesses over us in Jan '04. I don't think I've ever seen in the 480s down into SNE...mostly up near Vim Toot and prob in N VT/ N NH back in that '04 outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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