Logan11 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If retrogression continues ...I'd imagine we have at least one more shot for a Nor'easter later during next week or the following weekend. I thought maybe the Euro past 180 hours (as viewed on wunderground) might be trying to conjure something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If retrogression continues ...I'd imagine we have at least one more shot for a Nor'easter later during next week or the following weekend. I thought maybe the Euro past 180 hours (as viewed on wunderground) might be trying to conjure something up. I think that time around the 10th to 12th still looks good for some sort of potential low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I can't tell whether weenies are biting at the end of the weekend or not despite model disagreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is just sick... my god. To achieve the physically impossible .. heh, maybe the world is ending in 2012 - lol Watch us get 154.5 inches between March 15 and April 15… We’d still be 45 days away from the first day of winter - ah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 CFS2 monthlies issued today cooler Northern side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Canadian ensembles actually have slightly better ridging. WTF. 8 out of 20 GEM ensemble members at 96 hours look like the GFS. Thats a very high # at 96 hours to be disagreeing with the operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'm driving down to Florida on the 13th or 14th....so we gotta get that in here before I leave. Then I'll be on my way back a week later and I wouldn't mind hitting a Nor'easter somewhere from VA north. Hey still an atrocious 50F now.. Even PSF is 51 so it must be a day of snowpack diminution at Petes. I think that time around the 10th to 12th still looks good for some sort of potential low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Tip will love April, 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The best part about this is the GFS has actually preformed better than the rest in the first 4 days, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 EC ens develop a trough into the western US/Can by d13 and we get blowtorched in eastern NAMER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 EC ens develop a trough into the western US/Can by d13 and we get blowtorched in eastern NAMER. We're blowtorched now. A beautiful day. I'm going to enjoy it and forget about winter...not here. BOS still 1.2 shy of futility record which will not happen. A shame actually because this year is so bad we might as well go to the record books. Every 10 years. 1991-92 2001-02 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 EC ens develop a trough into the western US/Can by d13 and we get blowtorched in eastern NAMER. how do they handle the weekend system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 EC ens develop a trough into the western US/Can by d13 and we get blowtorched in eastern NAMER. They continue with that theme. They did try and raise heights across AK towards the end of the run, but the country is tainted beforehand. The differences with that model and everything else are LOL, but I think it may have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We're blowtorched now. A beautiful day. I'm going to enjoy it and forget about winter...not here. BOS still 1.2 shy of futility record which will not happen. A shame actually because this year is so bad we might as well go to the record books. Every 10 years. 1991-92 2001-02 2011-12 Well it's 35F here right now with still 4-5" OTG. It was definitely warm, but nothing insane up here in CAD land.1992-93 2002-03 2012-13 Let's make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The best part about this is the GFS has actually preformed better than the rest in the first 4 days, LOL QVectorman thanks for providing that! I've been onto the Euro as suspect a few times over the last 45 days (actually), but hadn't bothered to look it up. I have written a couple diatribing opines, odes to the Euro throwing us phantoms over that time. Not surprising to see it graphically - no. One must wonder why that is.. As of last, I thought the Euro still had superior ingest. Interesting. Perhaps there is something native to the pattern types so far that is more suited to GFS bias envelope - making it stick out as the superior performer. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 how do they handle the weekend system? What weekend system? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What weekend system? lol fair enough. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 QVectorman thanks for providing that! I've been onto the Euro as suspect a few times over the last 45 days (actually), but hadn't bothered to look it up. I have written a couple diatribing opines, odes to the Euro throwing us phantoms over that time. Not surprising to see it graphically - no. One must wonder why that is.. As of last, I thought the Euro still had superior ingest. Interesting. Perhaps there is something native to the pattern types so far that is more suited to GFS bias envelope - making it stick out as the superior performer. Who knows. Probably something about the Pacific pattern is counterracting the GFS cold bias this winter. The Euro generally is bad during La Ninas because its bias of holding back energy becomes severely exposed due to the normall progressive nature to the pattern and lack of blocking during most La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well it's 35F here right now with still 4-5" OTG. It was definitely warm, but nothing insane up here in CAD land. 1992-93 2002-03 2012-13 Let's make it happen. Nice! Let's do it. Glad you have some snow. I'm looking forward to checking out the flowers that came up today. Feb 97 was a blowtorch but we salvaged winter. I'm not expecting anything similar this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Probably something about the Pacific pattern is counterracting the GFS cold bias this winter. The Euro generally is bad during La Ninas because its bias of holding back energy becomes severely exposed due to the normall progressive nature to the pattern and lack of blocking during most La Ninas. Oh that's sooo funny you just said that. I wasn't connecting that to the Nina canvas, but I was thinking about that tendency in the Euor to curl back SW with diving energy - fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Isn't that graph the MJO skill set? What has that got to do with the model itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Oh that's sooo funny you just said that. I wasn't connecting that to the Nina canvas, but I was thinking about that tendency in the Euor to curl back SW with diving energy - fascinating. We joked in the NYC thread last winter that the NOGAPS was probably unstoppable in 97-98 because its progressive bias would have been counterracted by the raging El nino. Then Tony G from NWS Mt Holly came in and said that by far the NOGAPS was one of the best models during the 97-98 winter. It also did okay in 09-10 as well on some events. The GEM also was consistently deviating in 2010-2011 from its typical west/warm bias, again the La Nina may have been negating its normal tendencies. So it may not be totally crazy to greater buy into normally progressive models during El Ninos and amped models during La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 QVectorman thanks for providing that! I've been onto the Euro as suspect a few times over the last 45 days (actually), but hadn't bothered to look it up. I have written a couple diatribing opines, odes to the Euro throwing us phantoms over that time. Not surprising to see it graphically - no. One must wonder why that is.. As of last, I thought the Euro still had superior ingest. Interesting. Perhaps there is something native to the pattern types so far that is more suited to GFS bias envelope - making it stick out as the superior performer. Who knows. It was either you or someone else that mentioned the same a few days ago... about the ingest schemes failing to be superior with this type of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Isn't that graph the MJO skill set? What has that got to do with the model itself? yes it is I posted it in response to Adams question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 In case anyone is wondering..South of the MA/NH border this winter..this winter has averaged out to be normal for Charlotte, NC temp and snow wise. Is that own thread worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro Ens have zero snow in its entire 15 day run, yep cold and dry then the pattern dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z gfs says what storm Sunday? edit: Actually that's a lie. The storm goes off the south MD coast and OTS....still way different then the Euro. fwiw 18z nam looked interesting extrapolated past 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro Ens have zero snow in its entire 15 day run, yep cold and dry then the pattern dies. And this started about 3-4 days ago too. When I saw that ridge collapse, I thought "oh oh." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18z GFS and Euro ENS are excitign if you like tons of non-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 And this started about 3-4 days ago too. When I saw that ridge collapse, I thought "oh oh." god I so hope they are wrong, if they are right its game over for real.Epic fail from last week when we thought a good 7-18 day run was going to take place, what is worse is even when the pattern is nice its so dry those with snow left have massive sublimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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