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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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Not always the best theories to use but when the NAM which is usually north and west with these things at 84 hours is suppressed relative to its usual tendencies and more resembles the GFS, the NOGAPS is VERY suppressed, and the CRAS is suppressed as well I tend to believe the model that is not north and west, in this case the GFS may very well be right.

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Not always the best theories to use but when the NAM which is usually north and west with these things at 84 hours is suppressed relative to its usual tendencies and more resembles the GFS, the NOGAPS is VERY suppressed, and the CRAS is suppressed as well I tend to believe the model that is not north and west, in this case the GFS may very well be right.

you need to use more puncuation...i've read this like 8 times and i can't understand it. LOL.

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More reason to not support the Euro, it has significantly moved towards the GFS with the idea of modified temps in the 8-10 day period, a few days ago it had the PV into the Great Lakes, the GFS run 3 mornings ago at Day 13 looks exactly like the Euro does today at Day 10. It may be one of those rare weeks for the GFS. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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Well lets hope the EC ensembles look a ltitle better. The Canadian does weaken ridging after d10, but try to build it back up again. Lets hope it happens. The building of the ridge once again does have some support, but may also be dependent on placement of tropical forcing and Aleutian low. Both of which will have a big say in this. If tropical forcing tries to move out of phase 7-8 quicker, it may keep the ridge flat. But, there isn't an immediete repsonse to the atmosphere when this happens so if we do crap out into the lousy Nina phases, it usually takes several days at least to see a response.

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The GFS, NAM,and GGEM are all on the same page (more or less) with their trend toward moving the plains upper low out/under and then attempting to dive the northern stream into it - rather than leaving the upper low to rot in the northern plains like the Euro.

It seems to me we have retrogression going on in the long wave pattern which favors the first three models, even though the Euro is usually then king.

Not always the best theories to use but when the NAM which is usually north and west with these things at 84 hours is suppressed relative to its usual tendencies and more resembles the GFS, the NOGAPS is VERY suppressed, and the CRAS is suppressed as well I tend to believe the model that is not north and west, in this case the GFS may very well be right.

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