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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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But then you go here and the wave looks good.

Just weird.

http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

If specific break-downs in the observed OLR regions correlate better than merely looking at the MJO et al, so be it ... But, just the same, and barring the GEFs isn't completely and utterly useless, that type of potency in Phase 7 really has a higher than median correlation on the pattern as a whole.

I also noticed that there is a subtle albeit present overnight PNA that has a bit of an elevation taking place out around D7-10. It's positive leading up to that interval, but gets a boast in the ensembles from some source; could be registering anticipated TF.

This middle range period though...it's interesting that the western ridge really doesn't look like much of a ridge... 558dm circumvallate extending to 55N is really pretty paltry/meager, and seeing S/W coming onboard out west and then not digging with expectation of a +PNA is understandable considering the weak complexion.

This is hearkens somewhat to the point about the PNA domain being so large, and that if the western 2/3rds of computes +, and the eastern 1/3 as negative, the mean will be positive - if perhaps not expressing very well of N/A. Perhaps with the MJO exploding in Phase 7 and then decaying slowly in 8 (assuming success there), the two can super-impose and finally throw up a tsunamis over western N/A. This current regime of storm let-down is purely a function of unrealized west to east, ridge-trough couplet associated with +1SD PNAs for the time being.

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scott have the MJO amplitude shows signs of crapping quicker or mostely steadfast with continuity

Well some of the progs did try to reduce the amplitude a bit. The Roundy MJO progs that Adam (am19psu) talked about did reduce the depiction of dateline convection. I still thought it seemed peculiar that some models broke down the PNA ridge, but in the end..it could be something as simple as a crappy vort lobe that comes flying in and breaks down the ridge temporarily. Just because the tropics argie for a ridge..doesn't mean it has to happen. Things can happen, and there is always luck involved.

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If specific break-downs in the observed OLR regions correlate better than merely looking at the MJO et al, so be it ... But, just the same, and barring the GEFs isn't completely and utterly useless, that type of potency in Phase 7 really has a higher than median correlation on the pattern as a whole.

I also noticed that there is a subtle albeit present overnight PNA that has a bit of an elevation taking place out around D7-10. It's positive leading up to that interval, but gets a boast in the ensembles from some source; could be registering anticipated TF.

This middle range period though...it's interesting that the western ridge really doesn't look like much of a ridge... 558dm circumvallate extending to 55N is really pretty paltry/meager, and seeing S/W coming onboard out west and then not digging with expectation of a +PNA is understandable considering the weak complexion.

This is hearkens somewhat to the point about the PNA domain being so large, and that if the western 2/3rds of computes +, and the eastern 1/3 as negative, the mean will be positive - if perhaps not expressing very well of N/A. Perhaps with the MJO exploding in Phase 7 and then decaying slowly in 8 (assuming success there), the two can super-impose and finally throw up a tsunamis over western N/A. This current regime of storm let-down is purely a function of unrealized west to east, ridge-trough couplet associated with +1SD PNAs for the time being.

At some point, the whole ridge is tilted almost NNW-SSE which mucks up the domain a bit. When that happens, I think that PV lobe comes into the GOA and into the domain of the PNA. So, yeah it may muck up the signal.

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Take a gander at the 00z Gonaps. Does the same thing the GFS is doing but takes iy up a notch.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html

timing totally different though... GFS brings a southeast of the BM on Sunday night, NOGAPS develops a similar low way into Tuesday... models having an extraordinarily difficult time latching onto the right piece of energy, and seems like a different output with every run

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