N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 scott have the MJO amplitude shows signs of crapping quicker or mostely steadfast with continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 gefs mean is pretty far south with that LP but does scrape the region with some light qpf. maybe a couple of further north members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 But then you go here and the wave looks good. Just weird. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml If specific break-downs in the observed OLR regions correlate better than merely looking at the MJO et al, so be it ... But, just the same, and barring the GEFs isn't completely and utterly useless, that type of potency in Phase 7 really has a higher than median correlation on the pattern as a whole. I also noticed that there is a subtle albeit present overnight PNA that has a bit of an elevation taking place out around D7-10. It's positive leading up to that interval, but gets a boast in the ensembles from some source; could be registering anticipated TF. This middle range period though...it's interesting that the western ridge really doesn't look like much of a ridge... 558dm circumvallate extending to 55N is really pretty paltry/meager, and seeing S/W coming onboard out west and then not digging with expectation of a +PNA is understandable considering the weak complexion. This is hearkens somewhat to the point about the PNA domain being so large, and that if the western 2/3rds of computes +, and the eastern 1/3 as negative, the mean will be positive - if perhaps not expressing very well of N/A. Perhaps with the MJO exploding in Phase 7 and then decaying slowly in 8 (assuming success there), the two can super-impose and finally throw up a tsunamis over western N/A. This current regime of storm let-down is purely a function of unrealized west to east, ridge-trough couplet associated with +1SD PNAs for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GEFS do the same with the op run only further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GEFS do the same with the op run only further south. Do you think its a fluke or a trend? In class so I can't look for myself...on my phone. Gonna go back to paying attention now...most boring subject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 what a weenie east coast storm at the very end of the GFS run. rain but what a monster. LOL. Thats mega superstorm status, winds sustained 45 gusting to 65, , 522 5H and marine taint LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 scott have the MJO amplitude shows signs of crapping quicker or mostely steadfast with continuity Well some of the progs did try to reduce the amplitude a bit. The Roundy MJO progs that Adam (am19psu) talked about did reduce the depiction of dateline convection. I still thought it seemed peculiar that some models broke down the PNA ridge, but in the end..it could be something as simple as a crappy vort lobe that comes flying in and breaks down the ridge temporarily. Just because the tropics argie for a ridge..doesn't mean it has to happen. Things can happen, and there is always luck involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Do you think its a fluke or a trend? In class so I can't look for myself...on my phone. Gonna go back to paying attention now...most boring subject Well I don't think it's out to lunch, but until the rest of the guidance latches on, I couldn't call it a trend just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If specific break-downs in the observed OLR regions correlate better than merely looking at the MJO et al, so be it ... But, just the same, and barring the GEFs isn't completely and utterly useless, that type of potency in Phase 7 really has a higher than median correlation on the pattern as a whole. I also noticed that there is a subtle albeit present overnight PNA that has a bit of an elevation taking place out around D7-10. It's positive leading up to that interval, but gets a boast in the ensembles from some source; could be registering anticipated TF. This middle range period though...it's interesting that the western ridge really doesn't look like much of a ridge... 558dm circumvallate extending to 55N is really pretty paltry/meager, and seeing S/W coming onboard out west and then not digging with expectation of a +PNA is understandable considering the weak complexion. This is hearkens somewhat to the point about the PNA domain being so large, and that if the western 2/3rds of computes +, and the eastern 1/3 as negative, the mean will be positive - if perhaps not expressing very well of N/A. Perhaps with the MJO exploding in Phase 7 and then decaying slowly in 8 (assuming success there), the two can super-impose and finally throw up a tsunamis over western N/A. This current regime of storm let-down is purely a function of unrealized west to east, ridge-trough couplet associated with +1SD PNAs for the time being. At some point, the whole ridge is tilted almost NNW-SSE which mucks up the domain a bit. When that happens, I think that PV lobe comes into the GOA and into the domain of the PNA. So, yeah it may muck up the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Take a gander at the 00z Gonaps. Does the same thing the GFS is doing but takes iy up a notch. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html timing totally different though... GFS brings a southeast of the BM on Sunday night, NOGAPS develops a similar low way into Tuesday... models having an extraordinarily difficult time latching onto the right piece of energy, and seems like a different output with every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 ggem is still basically a weak LP cutting through the region...though does pop a slightly better secondary. kind of meh though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Schwartz Synoptic Seven in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 gefs also still showing support for a low nearby the weekend of the 11/12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Schwartz Synoptic Seven in effect? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHw6KXbvazs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GEFS really didn't cave yet..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GEFS really didn't cave yet..lol. They may be a little warmer, but nowhere near the EC at d10. Pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GEFS really didn't cave yet..lol. Only a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Only a matter of time Well I'm not suggesting otherwise, just saying what they show. I know very well what could happen...I told you yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro out? Yeah, it looks nothing like the Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah, it looks nothing like the Goofus. It cuts into the midwest and then loses most of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah, it looks nothing like the Goofus. Who would have ever guessed? Wheres it have Sundays low? Dont wanna rip out my laptop lol thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah, it looks nothing like the Goofus. It's a torch for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Who would have ever guessed? Wheres it have Sundays low? Dont wanna rip out my laptop lol thanks Out in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah euro still a Monday disaster, but it doesn't mean much with models changing every run and the fact it's past 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It cuts into the midwest and then loses most of the precip. It doesn't cut in the midwest lol....it rots the cutoff and it eventually gets absorbed by the s/w coming down from Canada...which leads to the rain event Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah euro still a Monday disaster, but it doesn't mean much with models changing every run and the fact it's past 5 days out. What do we even have where at this pt? Gfs just off the coast...nogaps with a bomb...? What else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It doesn't cut in the midwest lol....it rots the cutoff and it eventually gets absorbed by the s/w coming down from Canada...which leads to the rain event Monday night Yeah, that's an ugly rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What do we even have where at this pt? Gfs just off the coast...nogaps with a bomb...? What else? The Gonaps did just that. It went to sleep today at 12z. Snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What do we even have where at this pt? Gfs just off the coast...nogaps with a bomb...? What else? A convoluted mess that won't be rectified for several more days if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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