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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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For now, I'd still watch that period around the 10th for something as the longwave pattern has the best look in the next 2 weeks. That seems like our best shot for now, although confidence is a little shaky on that. After that, who knows. With the way guidance has been....it's anyone's guess. Maybe the ridge does try to poke into AK one more time.

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Pattern change begins around the 10th, ends about the 25th. we're just not sure which month yet.

Since there is zero else to look forward to in the immediate future, lets see what the 12z guidance does for now. If it trends one way or the other....we'll have an idea. I'm still interested if the stubborness in the models keeps up.

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Looking at the teleconnections at only one dimension, what's the problem? +PNA, -AO, neutral NAO. Great for New England.

As I and also Scott have talked about, the presence of the strong trough over the North Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska has been an issue still, as disturbances knock down the western ridge. Looks like the +PNA becomes a more stable feature by the middle of the month, as it bridges across the arctic toward Russia. Otherwise, now we really do need some degree of a negative NAO on our side. A vortex locked up in northern Canada won't do much good. We could stay on the cooler side while the rest of the nation is warming up, but as for storm chances, there's no room for amplification in the East.

Anyway, I've already expressed my thoughts on the rest of the "winter" many times lol.

Baseball season is coming up quickly now. Won't have a mud season unless we get alot of rain this month... It'll give us all a chance to get lawns started early. Only 3 positives I see

Welcome aboard

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Looking at the teleconnections at only one dimension, what's the problem? +PNA, -AO, neutral NAO. Great for New England.

As I and also Scott have talked about, the presence of the strong trough over the North Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska has been an issue still, as disturbances knock down the western ridge. Looks like the +PNA becomes a more stable feature by the middle of the month, as it bridges across the arctic toward Russia. Otherwise, now we really do need some degree of a negative NAO on our side. A vortex locked up in northern Canada won't do much good. We could stay on the cooler side while the rest of the nation is warming up, but as for storm chances, there's no room for amplification in the East.

Anyway, I've already expressed my thoughts on the rest of the "winter" many times lol.

Welcome aboard

This pattern is like picking up my dog's poop in the backyard... from one pile of shi* to the next.

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Looking at the teleconnections at only one dimension, what's the problem? +PNA, -AO, neutral NAO. Great for New England.

As I and also Scott have talked about, the presence of the strong trough over the North Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska has been an issue still, as disturbances knock down the western ridge. Looks like the +PNA becomes a more stable feature by the middle of the month, as it bridges across the arctic toward Russia. Otherwise, now we really do need some degree of a negative NAO on our side. A vortex locked up in northern Canada won't do much good. We could stay on the cooler side while the rest of the nation is warming up, but as for storm chances, there's no room for amplification in the East.

Anyway, I've already expressed my thoughts on the rest of the "winter" many times lol.

Welcome aboard

This may sound like grasping for straws, but it isn't meant to be. I know it's the end of the ensembles, but it's possible the ridge could try to rebuild in AK one more time before probably dissolving after mid month or so. With the models kind of all over the place with everything and the big low in the Aleutians...I wouldn't be shocked if that happened...assuming the trough in the GOA lifts out. I think we all said the euro sucked this morning and it did...but I'd like to see what guidance does today as well. Even the horrific looking EC tries to do this. We might as well since there isn't much to talk about.

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The GFS almost tries to phase part of the trough north of New england, in with the vortmax coming out of the Plains. It actually brished LL with a little snow. Another different solution...another run.

Nam at 84 looks decent, DGEX gives us a few inches of snow sunday, and now the gfs brushes us with snow, interesting indeed!

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Since there is zero else to look forward to in the immediate future, lets see what the 12z guidance does for now. If it trends one way or the other....we'll have an idea. I'm still interested if the stubborness in the models keeps up.

If we didn't have the Pats/Giants to keep most of the region interested there would be riots on weenie island.

I just came in from a quick trip in a tshirt, already about 50 here and sunny. It's like I live in Virginia now.

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I guess it's plausible if that cutoff out west moves east enough in time.

Yeah it's tough to say what solution will be right or wrong. I felt the scenarion of keeping the low squashed...basically south of the 12z GFS depiction was fair...but then the euro and euro ens suggest otherwise.

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ok so nam/gfs/nogaps look better as the storm reaches the PAC NW

is this a case of losing a storm over the "data sparse region of the pac" only to bring it back as we get in to 4 days

lets see if the former king euro model still takes the closed low to the twin cities sun pm as it has last two runs.

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Yeah it's tough to say what solution will be right or wrong. I felt the scenarion of keeping the low squashed...basically south of the 12z GFS depiction was fair...but then the euro and euro ens suggest otherwise.

Take a gander at the 00z Gonaps. Does the same thing the GFS is doing but takes iy up a notch.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html

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I know Will and I were talking about this yesterday...but the GFS does break down the ridge with the middle finger lobe plowing into the West Coast. However, it does try to build the ridge up again afterwards. Yes it's the GFS op, but the point here is that some models show this, so something to watch on guidance. I don't know if it will happen, of tropical forcing craps the bed quicker, but something to watch.

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