CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 And then you have the 06z GEFS which keep that PNA ridge going. Good grief..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I joust looked qt d15 of the cmc ensembles and gefs. Both have at least half of the members torching us by d15. I'm buying tickets to FL during the late part of vacation week. Might as ell enjoy some warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 You're such a nice guy that this may qualify as a meltdown...lol. it's a slow burn meltdown. I mean my main teleconnections are Scott Will and the guys here. We were on the verge of ecstasy just 2 days ago... I am becoming emotionally detached from this winter and I trust no forecast. I just keep thinking that at some point winter will arrive and it will shock us....it will just suddenly show up on a 2-3 forecast and them boom were are in it. Who knows.... Honestly I just ordered my seeds for the spring and am thinking about what I'm putting in the gahden. I don't enjoy 4 inches of crappy uneven snow on the ground. If we don't a decent period of cold and snow by Feb 25 then i would want an early spring and getting my peas in the ground in March. This is 2 sh** winters in the last 3 years up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 And then you have the 06z GEFS which keep that PNA ridge going. Good grief..lol. Probably right after I think of going south...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 That probably explains part of it too. Well, the Roundy stuff is statistical, so it's independent of model forecasts. Something happened over the last couple of days that really screwed up the tropical wind field... not sure if it has something to do with the extension of the S Hemisphere monsoon trough to the dateline or a stronger subtropical high across the Central Pac or what, but in any case, the MJO forecasts from both Roundy and the Euro ENS stop the P8 forcing around Feb 10 and then the Maritime Continent (P4-5) becomes dominant again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What an added kick in the nuts it will be if this all translates to a disaster spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Pressing the trend continues, the weeklies will be ugly tomorrow. It's becoming so bad it's high camp....like it Is so horribly uncool that it is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well, the Roundy stuff is statistical, so it's independent of model forecasts. Something happened over the last couple of days that really screwed up the tropical wind field... not sure if it has something to do with the extension of the S Hemisphere monsoon trough to the dateline or a stronger subtropical high across the Central Pac or what, but in any case, the MJO forecasts from both Roundy and the Euro ENS stop the P8 forcing around Feb 10 and then the Maritime Continent (P4-5) becomes dominant again. Did you happen notice those euro monthly/seasonal ensemble packages were burying the mjo after p7 the last several days while the actual ec ens were moving nicely into p8. They didn't sniff 8/1/2 at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Don S has been going on analogs pretty strongly and it has worked out. It's not a surprise when you see the main features in place and know that models try to change patterns to quickly, when they are stable. It's also why many of us in December said that we are screwed with an AK vortex even if models briefly try to show a change. We know from analogs and past experience. Yes. But Don missed the last part of last winter so I had hope for this February. Who knows... I just wish I understood the underlying factor(s) that keeps getting that vortex to return even when models are completely blowing it apart. Everything is so theoretical in terms of pattern change. There will be a west coast ridge poking into BC and Alaska when it happens...not when some model shows it. Ground truth FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Did you happen notice those euro monthly/seasonal ensemble packages were burying the mjo after p7 the last several days while the actual ec ens were moving nicely into p8. They didn't sniff 8/1/2 at all. Not really. The troughing along the coast from Feb 6-12 in the Euro weeklies was all MJO driven. Here is the OLR forecast from Monday's run. You can see the forcing in the P8 spot east of the dateline. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON-obsfanom-olra.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If they are right for April and May it would almost be worth it. But. They won't be. Mitch, you've never suffered if you haven't spent April in New England. Jerry, yes I have....it's called winter in Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well, the Roundy stuff is statistical, so it's independent of model forecasts. Something happened over the last couple of days that really screwed up the tropical wind field... not sure if it has something to do with the extension of the S Hemisphere monsoon trough to the dateline or a stronger subtropical high across the Central Pac or what, but in any case, the MJO forecasts from both Roundy and the Euro ENS stop the P8 forcing around Feb 10 and then the Maritime Continent (P4-5) becomes dominant again. Yeah clearly, but also..the EC for whatever reason is really bullish with this too. Much more so than the GEFS. I mean look at the difference alone in d10. Yes it's day 10, but to have those differences that far out is pretty bad. Quite amazing, actually. The EC tends to be the better guidance, but it's really hitting that a lot harder than the GEFS and even Canadian. At first I figured some sort of a compromise when guidance is that far apart...but maybe it has the right idea? Interesting from a met standpoint, sucks from a snow standpoint. BTW, I've looked at the Roundy stuff before, but does it have a better track record than some of the global models? I know it's statistical so it could have some hits and misses...but just curious what you thought. I never really looked at it all that much, but I probably should give it a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I was very critical of your apprehension a couple of days ago, but you win. Congrats. thanks, but I, like any of us, would gladly take a bust in exchange for change in this wretched pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah clearly, but also..the EC for whatever reason is really bullish with this too. Much more so than the GEFS. I mean look at the difference alone in d10. Yes it's day 10, but to have those differences that far out is pretty bad. Quite amazing, actually. The EC tends to be the better guidance, but it's really hitting that a lot harder than the GEFS and even Canadian. At first I figured some sort of a compromise when guidance is that far apart...but maybe it has the right idea? Interesting from a met standpoint, sucks from a snow standpoint. It really comes down to the differences in the tropical forcing, imo. Look at the huge diffs between the D11-15 GEFS and Euro tropical forcing (especially over the Maritime Continent)... GEFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/spatial_olrmap_full.gif Euro: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF-obsfanom-olra.gif Also remember how bad the GEFS has been with the MJO this season... BTW, I've looked at the Roundy stuff before, but does it have a better track record than some of the global models? I know it's statistical so it could have some hits and misses...but just curious what you thought. I never really looked at it all that much, but I probably should give it a closer look. I find Roundy to be the best for MR forecasting. Sometimes it punts (like right now), but I find it more reliable than any of the dynamical products available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Not really. The troughing along the coast from Feb 6-12 in the Euro weeklies was all MJO driven. Here is the OLR forecast from Monday's run. You can see the forcing in the P8 spot east of the dateline. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON-obsfanom-olra.gif Ok cool. I was only really speaking of the actual phase diagram which seemed to show it just dying after 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecor Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 time to pull the plug on the "fab february"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It really comes down to the differences in the tropical forcing, imo. Look at the huge diffs between the D11-15 GEFS and Euro tropical forcing (especially over the Maritime Continent)... GEFS: http://www.cpc.ncep....olrmap_full.gif Euro: http://www.cpc.ncep....sfanom-olra.gif Also remember how bad the GEFS has been with the MJO this season... I find Roundy to be the best for MR forecasting. Sometimes it punts (like right now), but I find it more reliable than any of the dynamical products available. That's a pretty telling comparison with the Hovmoller. Better than the MJO wave diagrams. I've never seen those before on the CPC site, thanks for pointing them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Snowless Feb enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It does look like the EC is probably underestimating the wave a bit, by how it shows yellows (lack of clouds) immediately after the blues around 160E. But the biggesty difference seems to be in the IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Snowless Feb enroute IDK about that but the cards were on the table yesterday and its only developed worse today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Snowless Feb enroute Now you're going the other way? Give it a day or two before you jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 CFS back to an absolute torch in FEB (maybe >AN map than JAN if that's possible) http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif CFS wins this winter hands down 1) those CFS temp anomalies looking like a decent bench / mariano rivera through march... wasn't a no-hitter, but a pretty sick / historic ERA in the making? 2) the Ground Hog day analogy comes to mind as we've seen this weekend's threats appear and disappear, only to be replaced by a the next D10 hope Feb10-12... this winter has generated some of the most entertaining posts Bill Murray-style, props to all of you... wouldn't it be ironic if the rodent say otherwise tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Snowless Feb enroute Holy 180 in less than 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Holy 180 in less than 24 hours. Models did the same, those CFS-2 weeklies are now full blown torches all month with the cold shifted 250 miles north. Its the disaster we all feared, a lousy couple days of meh cold with no storms then el torchorino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 But then you go here and the wave looks good. Just weird. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Holy 180 in less than 24 hours. Gotta know when to hold and when to fold...yesterday nothing pointed fold..today everything does..fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Models did the same, those CFS-2 weeklies are now full blown torches all month with the cold shifted 250 miles north. Its the disaster we all feared, a lousy couple days of meh cold with no storms then el torchorino. I know, i just count on Kevin for optimism even when things look schitty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 But then you go here and the wave looks good. Just weird. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml A post last week on the main board stated the CMET was the best prediction wise all winter, if that is the case, MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Gotta know when to hold and when to fold...yesterday nothing pointed fold..today everything does..fold yesterday indeed was as bad as today, you just did not want to believe it. Just one storm would be nice this month but with a dry month predicted its going to be very tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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