Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Having the polar jet dive far enough south to get moisture feed out of the subtropics is not the same as getting your typical subtropical jet. There is a reason that DC and BWI got skunked last winter...lack of STJ and a little bad luck. Any time you get the PJ diving far enough south, its going to draw moisture out of the subtropics, but it doesn't mean we have an active STJ with disturbances rolling in all the time. Loop it http://www.meteo.psu...2011/us0125.php There might have been some weak STJ interaction, but nothing compared to an El Nino...last year was made by the PJ and most Nina years are. Even if you wanted to say the 1/27 storm was a big STJ storm (which it wasn't), you still have all those other systems that had nothing to do with it. This is exactly the point I'm making as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 I agree... but again, that's incidental because the N stream excited the gradient so much. Deep gradient causes compression in the flow at lower latitudes - there has to be some southerly input when that happens. Again, you are going to get that every time the N stream is dominant enough to drill heights deeply beneath 40N. Agreed...sort of explained this in the post above too. When the PJ gets far enough south, it will draw moisture out of the subtropics...and will become moisture laden from that source regardless if the STJ is humming along or totally absent. When the STJ is active, you get much more phasing and storms develop further south, but you can still get subtropical moisture without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 This is exactly the point I'm making as well... Eh, beat me to my reply...yeah we are def on the same page about this PJ interaction with the subtropics. Pretty classic too...it happened in the Jan 1996 blizzard for the Mid-atlantic (merely a big snowstorm for us except the southeast parts and south coast where it was on par with the Mid-Atlantic totals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 will have you given up on the sun-mon time period for a storm threat or do you still think we have some time to work in a solution that may give us a snow....seems there is still time ...and w/ model chaos (some hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Eh, beat me to my reply...yeah we are def on the same page about this PJ interaction with the subtropics. Pretty classic too...it happened in the Jan 1996 blizzard for the Mid-atlantic (merely a big snowstorm for us except the southeast parts and south coast where it was on par with the Mid-Atlantic totals). Ha ha. right. Question: are we currently dumping cold on the wrong side of the pole - is this one of THOSE -AOs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Classic STJ is the 2009-2010 season, but that was a STJ on juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 will have you given up on the sun-mon time period for a storm threat or do you still think we have some time to work in a solution that may give us a snow....seems there is still time ...and w/ model chaos (some hope) There's some slim hope, but I wouldn't expect anything. These Feb 3-6 threats have always been walking a tight rope and were before the change set in. Scott's concern about the longevity is valid, but it also looks like if we did get a break, it wouldn't be long lasting....as heights try to build again late in the period. Our window is def Feb 10-13...then hopefully some more beyond that whether there is a relaxation or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Eh, beat me to my reply...yeah we are def on the same page about this PJ interaction with the subtropics. Pretty classic too...it happened in the Jan 1996 blizzard for the Mid-atlantic (merely a big snowstorm for us except the southeast parts and south coast where it was on par with the Mid-Atlantic totals). It's a little bit ironic that the '96 blizzard is largely the king for the Mid-Atlantic and the NYC area, had little STJ inflow in it. Because, you know, one would expect the STJ would be king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It's a little bit ironic that the '96 blizzard is largely the king for the Mid-Atlantic and the NYC area, had little STJ inflow in it. Because, you know, one would expect the STJ would be king. When we get a El Nino winter the STJ tends to be king - whether other factors serve favorably is another story. We've seen STJ winters be prolific, and also suck equally as hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 When we get a La Nina winter the STJ tends to be king - whether other factors serve favorably is another story. We've seen STJ winters be prolific, and also suck equally as hard. You mean El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 There's some slim hope, but I wouldn't expect anything. These Feb 3-6 threats have always been walking a tight rope and were before the change set in. Scott's concern about the longevity is valid, but it also looks like if we did get a break, it wouldn't be long lasting....as heights try to build again late in the period. Our window is def Feb 10-13...then hopefully some more beyond that whether there is a relaxation or not. yes but that could potenitally turn on the next two euro runs and the gfs MJO amplitude could show the current wave weakening and limping into phase 8 then dying off ....so yes hopefully this doesn't happen lol. but like u say we got feb 10-13 to get a big one...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 You mean El Nino? Yes, damn! sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 what do the euro/euro ensemble mjo progs look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Man the euro ensembles just love to rip weenies apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Man the euro ensembles just love to rip weenies apart. Absolutely no cold air in our neck of the woods toward the end of that run. The 0C 850 isotherm sits over our heads for the last 3-4 days. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 End to end dead ratter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 End to end dead ratter? Yes. Uncle. Final call: 20-30".......I won't make futility because that would in and of itself be too exciting for this season. At least I got 4" of slush around Halloween and got to watch the rest of the interior accumulate 12-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Man the euro ensembles just love to rip weenies apart. CFS back to an absolute torch in FEB (maybe >AN map than JAN if that's possible) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif CFS wins this winter hands down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 There is still a pretty large disagreement among the models regarding the west. It's still a little puzzling why the EC just destroys that ridge, but regardless..it still happens. It does try to rebuild the ridging somewhat in the longer range, but not before torching the CONUS. I mean..one would think the tropical forcing would boost ridging, but perhaps the MJO amplitude is not enough as depicted on the EC. My guess is the euro may have the right idea but the big question will be whether or not ridging tries to develop after any break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 CFS back to an absolute torch in FEB (maybe >AN map than JAN if that's possible) http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif CFS wins this winter hands down I was very critical of your apprehension a couple of days ago, but you win. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 There is still a pretty large disagreement among the models regarding the west. It's still a little puzzling why the EC just destroys that ridge, but regardless..it still happens. It does try to rebuild the ridging somewhat in the longer range, but not before torching the CONUS. I mean..one would think the tropical forcing would boost ridging, but perhaps the MJO amplitude is not enough as depicted on the EC. My guess is the euro may have the right idea but the big question will be whether or not ridging tries to develop after any break. It's this winter...that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It's this winter...that's why. Like I've said the last 2 days..it's concerning for sure. However, it's also possible that some ridging does try to come back. It could very well be fleeting or not happen, but we'll have to see going forward. Regardless, the euro ensembles are vomit worthy in the 11-15 day. What happens after...who knows, but It's February and nice Spring wx ain't coming anytime soon, so hopefully the ridging comes back. It's not uncommon to have breaks with these patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 There is still a pretty large disagreement among the models regarding the west. It's still a little puzzling why the EC just destroys that ridge, but regardless..it still happens. It does try to rebuild the ridging somewhat in the longer range, but not before torching the CONUS. I mean..one would think the tropical forcing would boost ridging, but perhaps the MJO amplitude is not enough as depicted on the EC. My guess is the euro may have the right idea but the big question will be whether or not ridging tries to develop after any break. I looked at the OLR stuff from the 1/31 0z Euro ENS and the tropical forcing for a +PNA stops after Feb 10-11, then the IO picks up and the Pac is ugly again. Roundy as recently as the weekend had a solid 7 days of P8 forcing... now it's down to 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I looked at the OLR stuff from the 1/31 0z Euro ENS and the tropical forcing for a +PNA stops after Feb 10-11, then the IO picks up and the Pac is ugly again. Roundy as recently as the weekend had a solid 7 days of P8 forcing... now it's down to 2-3 days. That's how it looked to me too, but to see it sh*t the bed so quick was a little puzzling. The ridge craps the bed around the 10th. Usually there is somewhat of a delay..it's not like there is an immediate adjustment when tropical forcing diminishes. However maybe the amplitude is only briefly high enough to pop the ridge. There is still a low in the Aleutians beyond mid month which would try to pop a ridge again, but that is far off and the MJO starts getting back into the crap phases so who really knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 CFS back to an absolute torch in FEB (maybe >AN map than JAN if that's possible) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif CFS wins this winter hands down If they are right for April and May it would almost be worth it. But. They won't be. Mitch, you've never suffered if you haven't spent April in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 it is hard to trust any model at this point...even short range. yesterday late afternoon zone said low of 32 and rain today. I wake up to 25 and a wwa for freezing rain today. in terms of some ridge on the west coast, i won't believe it until it is actually there and not on some model. Same with MJO forecasts...it is currently in Phase 6? Then that is where it is until it moves... I believe no model forecast. There is something happening this year that is anomalous that experts don't have a handle on (except Don S it seems). I wonder what it is that the models are missing? I can't wait for the next DT meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 it is hard to trust any model at this point...even short range. yesterday late afternoon zone said low of 32 and rain today. I wake up to 25 and a wwa for freezing rain today. in terms of some ridge on the west coast, i won't believe it until it is actually there and not on some model. Same with MJO forecasts...it is currently in Phase 6? Then that is where it is until it moves... I believe no model forecast. There is something happening this year that is anomalous that experts don't have a handle on (except Don S it seems). I wonder what it is that the models are missing? I can't wait for the next DT meltdown. You're such a nice guy that this may qualify as a meltdown...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 it is hard to trust any model at this point...even short range. yesterday late afternoon zone said low of 32 and rain today. I wake up to 25 and a wwa for freezing rain today. in terms of some ridge on the west coast, i won't believe it until it is actually there and not on some model. Same with MJO forecasts...it is currently in Phase 6? Then that is where it is until it moves... I believe no model forecast. There is something happening this year that is anomalous that experts don't have a handle on (except Don S it seems). I wonder what it is that the models are missing? I can't wait for the next DT meltdown. Don S has been going on analogs pretty strongly and it has worked out. It's not a surprise when you see the main features in place and know that models try to change patterns to quickly, when they are stable. It's also why many of us in December said that we are screwed with an AK vortex even if models briefly try to show a change. We know from analogs and past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I looked at the OLR stuff from the 1/31 0z Euro ENS and the tropical forcing for a +PNA stops after Feb 10-11, then the IO picks up and the Pac is ugly again. Roundy as recently as the weekend had a solid 7 days of P8 forcing... now it's down to 2-3 days. That probably explains part of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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