weathafella Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 winter is coming this weekend into next week and will last to march with colder weather with snow. Some people still dont see that i cancel my stuff from accuweather because they one side and dont like people saying something different than there forecast . jb lc are the best out there . i would not be surprise we get big ones between now into march. LC cancelled but yeah...... You go blizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 The breaking down of the PNA ridge on the Euro if it were to happen looks like it would be temporary as it starts building heights again at the end of the run...its also supported by the MJO likely to be in phase 8 around Vday...and having that big low anomaly hanging around the Aleutians...its hard to maintain troughing in the PNA region when you combine those factors. It looks like the way it does it is by crashing a trough into the PAC NW which disrupts the ridging for a few days...but then it would want to build back. We'll have to see how efficient that is because that's not easy to do...just ram a trough into the ridge. Might be why we are seeing some big model difference in the long range. Regardless, I wouldn't be overly concerned if we did get a brief break in the western ridging since most factors look favorable for it to return for at least a time after that. As I mentioned in this first post of this thread, I think the pattern is more conductive for threats rather than arctic cold...we might get one outbreak, but overall this has never looked like a very cold period except a run here and there. I've been more interested in the storm potential during this shift rather than what the temperature departures will be between Feb 6-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We have a week or 2 of nice winter possible...let's take what we get and if we get more, consider it gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The breaking down of the PNA ridge on the Euro if it were to happen looks like it would be temporary as it starts building heights again at the end of the run...its also supported by the MJO likely to be in phase 8 around Vday...and having that big low anomaly hanging around the Aleutians...its hard to maintain troughing in the PNA region when you combine those factors. It looks like the way it does it is by crashing a trough into the PAC NW which disrupts the ridging for a few days...but then it would want to build back. We'll have to see how efficient that is because that's not easy to do...just ram a trough into the ridge. Might be why we are seeing some big model difference in the long range. Regardless, I wouldn't be overly concerned if we did get a brief break in the western ridging since most factors look favorable for it to return for at least a time after that. As I mentioned in this first post of this thread, I think the pattern is more conductive for threats rather than arctic cold...we might get one outbreak, but overall this has never looked like a very cold period except a run here and there. I've been more interested in the storm potential during this shift rather than what the temperature departures will be between Feb 6-20. Hopefully the outlooks look as promising as they did this past weekend. Clearly classic synoptic setup progs have been replaced by meh, even the analog dates are not good. I hope something good appears suddenly actually because it is obvious modeling will be little long lead help. Seems 72 or inside is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The breaking down of the PNA ridge on the Euro if it were to happen looks like it would be temporary as it starts building heights again at the end of the run...its also supported by the MJO likely to be in phase 8 around Vday...and having that big low anomaly hanging around the Aleutians...its hard to maintain troughing in the PNA region when you combine those factors. It looks like the way it does it is by crashing a trough into the PAC NW which disrupts the ridging for a few days...but then it would want to build back. We'll have to see how efficient that is because that's not easy to do...just ram a trough into the ridge. Might be why we are seeing some big model difference in the long range. Regardless, I wouldn't be overly concerned if we did get a brief break in the western ridging since most factors look favorable for it to return for at least a time after that. As I mentioned in this first post of this thread, I think the pattern is more conductive for threats rather than arctic cold...we might get one outbreak, but overall this has never looked like a very cold period except a run here and there. I've been more interested in the storm potential during this shift rather than what the temperature departures will be between Feb 6-20. I want to see the EC start bringing back the ridge closer to the west coast. I mentioned earlier that the euro tried to bring ridging back...it did that last night too, but at day 15, it's probably anyone's guess. What I find a little weird is how it tries to weaken ridging dramatically, but the wavelengths seem really short and the tropical forcing would seem to argue for that not to happen. There is also a big difference between the GEFS and EC. Just look at hr 360 and compare..lol. I'd probably blend the guidance which would be better for us as a whole, but a little uneasy with this whole thing. I only care about storms as well, but that zonal flow would be horrible for storms if that happened. We had enough of that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I want to see the EC start bringing back the ridge closer to the west coast. I mentioned earlier that the euro tried to bring ridging back...it did that last night too, but at day 15, it's probably anyone's guess. What I find a little weird is how it tries to weaken ridging dramatically, but the wavelengths seem really short and the tropical forcing would seem to argue for that not to happen. There is also a big difference between the GEFS and EC. Just look at hr 360 and compare..lol. I'd probably blend the guidance which would be better for us as a whole, but a little uneasy with this whole thing. I only care about storms as well, but that zonal flow would be horrible for storms if that happened. We had enough of that this winter. Crapshoot at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The breaking down of the PNA ridge on the Euro if it were to happen looks like it would be temporary as it starts building heights again at the end of the run...its also supported by the MJO likely to be in phase 8 around Vday...and having that big low anomaly hanging around the Aleutians...its hard to maintain troughing in the PNA region when you combine those factors. It looks like the way it does it is by crashing a trough into the PAC NW which disrupts the ridging for a few days...but then it would want to build back. We'll have to see how efficient that is because that's not easy to do...just ram a trough into the ridge. Might be why we are seeing some big model difference in the long range. Regardless, I wouldn't be overly concerned if we did get a brief break in the western ridging since most factors look favorable for it to return for at least a time after that. As I mentioned in this first post of this thread, I think the pattern is more conductive for threats rather than arctic cold...we might get one outbreak, but overall this has never looked like a very cold period except a run here and there. I've been more interested in the storm potential during this shift rather than what the temperature departures will be between Feb 6-20. It's as if I wrote this post. Exactly what I;ve been saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 winter is coming this weekend into next week and will last to march with colder weather with snow. Some people still dont see that i cancel my stuff from accuweather because they one side and dont like people saying something different than there forecast . jb lc are the best out there . i would not be surprise we get big ones between now into march. LC and DT are among the worst out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Geezus 11-15 Euro ENs are a disaster, better hope 6-10 gives us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Donny Baseball continues to hit it out of the park, rock solid this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Geezus 11-15 Euro ENs are a disaster, better hope 6-10 gives us something. How could it be so different than the OP? Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 How could it be so different than the OP? Crazy. The OP only goes to day 10 bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That's yesterday. Posted in this thread a page or 3 back I think. It's todays...you have to refresh the image. Issued January 31st, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Somebody should take the f out of the word shift so this thread reads "another pattern shi*"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If anyone is looking for a quantifiable reason why the D7 scenario is weaker now ...it wasn't merely because it was D7 - that's a cop out. The real reason is because the western ridge on these operational runs is actually weak now. That system had better appeal when the previous runs surged the ridge polarward some 30dm more amplified, and that susequently drilled S/W dynamics S in the OV. That wave signature has damped since, however, so you get sheared out schit. The other thing that's irritating particularly about all this is that the SE ridge is persisting in these operational runs. That may or may not be keyed into the NAO aspect in this, but I think when the EPO really dive in about 5 days, that may dump cold S and we could end up with huge overrunning scenarios with that sort of appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Haha small typo on my part One of the points I have been harping on is the Convective feedback of the MJO that will help enhance the subtropical ridging in the Central pacific. You can see here that the 250 hPa temperature anomalies are +3-4 sigma thanks to the blossoming convection of the MJO, which is completely overwhelming the La Nina signal which would normally produce cooler than normal temperature anomalies aloft in the central and eastern Pacific due to suppressed convection.The La Nina signal was present most of January (as evidence in the 1-17-12 GFS analysis image which shows widespread -1.0 sigma temperature anomalies seen above) when the MJO was diffuse and weak, but now that its kicking up and getting into phase 7, it will help to pump the subtropical ridge over the Central Pacific, which will in turn tighten up the polar jet b/w 30-40N across the central Pacific. As the MJO progresses, so to will this jet streak, and so to will the left exit region of the jet, which will enhance storminess across the east Pacific due to increased upper level divergence.A shift in the development region of mid-latitude cyclones will also shift the trough/ridge configuration that we have seen for a large portion of the season. Where a mid-latitude cyclone develops, there must be a downstream response of ridging in order to support baroclinic development. This ridging will now occur across the west coast of North America which should support a +PNA due to this enhanced ridging. This is why generally MJO's that enter phase 8 and beyond typically lead to a cold signal in the eastern united states, because of the tropical signal forcing a shift in the development region of mid-latitude cyclones. That is also why the GFS and its ensembles have been supporting PNA ridging starting in the 5-7 day range. tossing euro 11-15 day anything look at the map above...pattern is changing ....strong amplitude MJO wave ......lets kick into phase 8 and ask for a little tebow magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This thread appears to be getting less play... so, fwiw... "...For the U.S., the current and forecast phases of the MJO favor a tendency for a positive PNA pattern in coming weeks with enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S.. Later as the MJO enters the western hemisphere, there is a tendency for stronger jet streams to develop. There is potential for a ridge in the west to be undercut, returning wet conditions to the west, and also enhanced moisture is more likely across the southern tier of the U.S...." What I find interesting is that this recent trend of the operational guidance appear to be rushing from the first paragraph to the 2nd, without ever realizing the implications of the first. Tonight's 00z GFS underscores. By D4, already the depiction is a crumbled western N/A ridge with undercutting flows and as a consequence, wave interference with northern stream. It's really been an odd year of anti-correlate numbers winning at every turn. Now we have an MJO going bonkers in Phase 7, +PNA, with a negative AO, and we get ever more obscene with teleconnections and nothing breaks favorably? Interesting in its self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 This thread appears to be getting less play... so, fwiw... "...For the U.S., the current and forecast phases of the MJO favor a tendency for a positive PNA pattern in coming weeks with enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S.. Later as the MJO enters the western hemisphere, there is a tendency for stronger jet streams to develop. There is potential for a ridge in the west to be undercut, returning wet conditions to the west, and also enhanced moisture is more likely across the southern tier of the U.S...." What I find interesting is that this recent trend of the operational guidance appear to be rushing from the first paragraph to the 2nd, without ever realizing the implications of the first. Tonight's 00z GFS underscores. By D4, already the depiction is a crumbled western N/A ridge with undercutting flows and as a consequence, wave interference with northern stream. It's really been an odd year of anti-correlate numbers winning at every turn. Now we have an MJO going bonkers in Phase 7, +PNA, with a negative AO, and we get ever more obscene with teleconnections and nothing breaks favorably? Interesting in its self. Lack of STJ, No phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Lack of STJ, No phasing. Could be. But then again, there doesn't necessarily have to be a dependence on the southern stream. Northern stream dominant pattern can produce large. And, a largely depressed AO with +PNA in tandem are huge indicators for N stream. Not happening through at all is again, anti correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Lack of STJ, No phasing. We don't need STJ...we had virtually zero STJ last winter and many a winter before that where we cleaned up. Most Ninas have none. We've had some bad luck to go with a bad pattern. We get a chance coming up and hopefully the crappy luck streak will break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Lack of STJ, No phasing. ya but with split flow potentially developing in the medium range that can work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We don't need STJ...we had virtually zero STJ last winter and many a winter before that where we cleaned up. Most Ninas have none. We've had some bad luck to go with a bad pattern. We get a chance coming up and hopefully the crappy luck streak will break. Yeah, I just mentioned something similar - agreed. I think "bad luck" is kinda winning I hate to say. This strange recent well connected western ridge being expressed suddenly as an "accidental" ridge more than a full on meridional one is naughty PNA for sure. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We don't need STJ...we had virtually zero STJ last winter and many a winter before that where we cleaned up. Most Ninas have none. We've had some bad luck to go with a bad pattern. We get a chance coming up and hopefully the crappy luck streak will break. We had a STJ last winter, I have several WV loops with a STJ infusing last Jan. A chance now which last week was a solid near two week period. Not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We don't need STJ...we had virtually zero STJ last winter and many a winter before that where we cleaned up. Most Ninas have none. We've had some bad luck to go with a bad pattern. We get a chance coming up and hopefully the crappy luck streak will break. This. Boxing Day Blizzard was all polar jet with some very weak stj involved with that. January 2011 was all northern stream, of course. It just to get the northern stream to dig far south enough, for it to produce a widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We had a STJ last winter, I have several WV loops with a STJ infusing last Jan. A chance now which last week was a solid near two week period. Not feeling it. Not quite... I understand where you are coming from, but what happens when the polar stream becomes dominant is that it transiently excites STJ appearance...but that's physics of gradient from diving N stream inducing southerly input. It's not really a STJ per se, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The rest of the run comes in ....astounding really...to get through 2 weeks of Phase 7 MJO, +PNA, -A0, and not one snow storm in February. I'm not sure why this is occurring but it seems almost impossible. Really underscores Will's bad luck notion perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Not quite... I understand where you are coming from, but what happens when the polar stream becomes dominant is that it transiently excites STJ appearance...but that's physics of gradient from diving N stream inducing southerly input. It's not really a STJ per se, though. Loop these for Jan 27 down the page, when the vapor comes from the West coast of Mexico that's STJ http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/date/2011/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Loop these for Jan 27 down the page, when the vapor comes from the West coast of Mexico that's STJ http://cimss.ssec.wi...es/date/2011/01 I agree... but again, that's incidental because the N stream excited the gradient so much. Deep gradient causes compression in the flow at lower latitudes - there has to be some southerly input when that happens. Again, you are going to get that every time the N stream is dominant enough to drill heights deeply beneath 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I agree... but again, that's incidental because the N stream excited the gradient so much. Deep gradient causes compression in the flow at lower latitudes - there has to be some southerly input when that happens. Again, you are going to get that every time the N stream is dominant enough to drill heights deeply beneath 40N. Well the first Jan storm was pure NStream infused off the Atlantic, number two bomb was trop loaded. I argued this last year. Sure we can get good storms with no STJ, not saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Loop these for Jan 27 down the page, when the vapor comes from the West coast of Mexico that's STJ http://cimss.ssec.wi...es/date/2011/01 Having the polar jet dive far enough south to get moisture feed out of the subtropics is not the same as getting your typical subtropical jet. There is a reason that DC and BWI got skunked last winter...lack of STJ and a little bad luck. Any time you get the PJ diving far enough south, its going to draw moisture out of the subtropics, but it doesn't mean we have an active STJ with disturbances rolling in all the time. Loop it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2011/us0125.php There might have been some weak STJ interaction, but nothing compared to an El Nino...last year was made by the PJ and most Nina years are. Even if you wanted to say the 1/27 storm was a big STJ storm (which it wasn't), you still have all those other systems that had nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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