OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm having a tough time getting really excited what might be like a 7 day pattern change at the end of a generally warm period between now and the next 7 to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yep people continue getting their hopes up over phantom pattern changes and have not come to the realization that the warm calls by such guidance as the CFS and ECMWF weeklies were pretty good temp wise. You know those weeklies that have been "pretty good" are cold in the future, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You know those weeklies that have been "pretty good" are cold in the future, right? They've generally been a bit overdone on the extremes...if they're overestimating the cold as much as they've overestimated the extent of the warmth...it'll just be near normal for a period. This is a tough pattern to dent, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 They've generally been a bit overdone on the extremes...if they're overestimating the cold as much as they've overestimated the extent of the warmth...it'll just be near normal for a period. This is a tough pattern to dent, that's for sure. Not my point. You cant say that people didnt want to believe the models that showed warmth and ended up correct in one breath, while saying people shouldnt believe phantom pattern changes when those same models now show cold in another breath. The opposite of weenie is still weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Not my point. You cant say that people didnt want to believe the models that showed warmth and ended up correct in one breath, while saying people shouldnt believe phantom pattern changes when those same models now show cold in another breath. The opposite of weenie is still weenie. Huh? The Euro weeklies beyond the 3rd week have not been the best, they've been extreme all winter. There's never been any debate about it getting cold for 7 or so days which can spill over into multiple weeks influencing the weekly temp anoms. If it's cold for 5-7 days split around the break point for the weeklies it can skew what goes on over that whole period. Let's see those changes stick for more than one cycle. This looks less and less like a longer term change and more and more like 6-10 days of winter bookened by warmer weather. More of the same but with a "change" to something different. When in doubt warmth has won out the majority of the time for six months and is continuing to do so this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If the guidance is right it's going to take a while to break such a pattern with three blocking signatures. There should be more cold air though with that type of set up with the PV that far south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Huh? The Euro weeklies beyond the 3rd week have not been the best, they've been extreme all winter. There's never been any debate about it getting cold for 7 or so days which can spill over into multiple weeks influencing the weekly temp anoms. If it's cold for 5-7 days split around the break point for the weeklies it can skew what goes on over that whole period. Let's see those changes stick for more than one cycle. This looks less and less like a longer term change and more and more like 6-10 days of winter bookened by warmer weather. More of the same but with a "change" to something different. When in doubt warmth has won out the majority of the time for six months and is continuing to do so this week. You are arguing a point I didnt make. I was merely pointing out that you cant use models to prove people were out of their minds for believing a pattern change in the past, while attempting to make the same exact point now when the models are now colder. If you want to attempt to make the larger point that the models might be incorrect with the "cooler" regime, fine...but thats clearly not what the post I quoted was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GEFS super ensemble still has the high latitude ridging...but definitely backed off on the negative 500mb height anomalies over the East days 8-14 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GEFS super ensemble still has the high latitude ridging...but definitely backed off on the negative 500mb height anomalies over the East days 8-14 http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif That's yesterday. Posted in this thread a page or 3 back I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You are arguing a point I didnt make. I was merely pointing out that you cant use models to prove people were out of their minds for believing a pattern change in the past, while attempting to make the same exact point now when the models are now colder. If you want to attempt to make the larger point that the models might be incorrect with the "cooler" regime, fine...but thats clearly not what the post I quoted was referring to. I have absolutely no idea WTF you're talking about to be totally honest. You live 300 miles away in a totally different climate, so I have no real idea WTF your point is or how it relates to a pattern change nobody has disputed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I have absolutely no idea WTF you're talking about to be totally honest. You live 300 miles away in a totally different climate, so I have no real idea WTF your point is or how it relates to a pattern change nobody has disputed. clearly. nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro ensembles still break down the ridge and try to torch the east near Valentines Day. They still continue that trend. Before that, there is still a pretty good storm signal near the 10th to the 12th as the long wave trough gets into a better position for some sort of storminess in the East. Obviously too early to say if it would be more interior or coastal...but the signals are there. It's what happens after that's the problem. We may break out of the pattern..or at least walk the line as mild Pacific air enters the country. However, guidance is still at a disagreement with the GEFS and GEM having more ridging, less Pacific flow and therefore colder air and a better trough signal in the east The EC flattens the ridge out and actually floods the country with milder air. This has been a trend in the last 48-60 hrs. It does to build a little ridging back up again near the end of the run as the Aleutian low tries to send more ridging into AK, but that's far out in time. The other guidance basically has trended a bit towards the EC, but they also remain a bit stubborn and do not break down the ridging. I'd still probably blend some of the guidance together, as all models may be displaying some of their bias in the long range, but you can't ignore what the EC is doing. However I think tropical forcing and placement of Aleutian low may argue that the EC could be a bit fast in flipping the PNA negative. Regardless, I just don't like seeing the better guidance show a quicker pattern flip and that concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 clearly. nevermind. I think maybe you're seeing some of the banter and mistaking it for people trying to make points (ie the people jumping off bridges and the people talking about 3 weeks of snow). I think all of us here believe there's a period of colder and snowier weather coming up. I'll believe it's longer term (10-20 days in duration) when that becomes more apparent, right now I think the Pac is going to be tough to beat and we'll see some Pac taint. I think we're all just hoping to see a solid week or so of threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I know this is somewhat off-topic, but would this "Pacific Taint" bring moisture into the Tetons of Wyoming? I'm heading out there from the 18th to 26th and they seem to be in a bit of a dry spell after getting dumped on last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I know this is somewhat off-topic, but would this "Pacific Taint" bring moisture into the Tetons of Wyoming? I'm heading out there from the 18th to 26th and they seem to be in a bit of a dry spell after getting dumped on last week... Yeah it should. It may only be more the higher elevations, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think maybe you're seeing some of the banter and mistaking it for people trying to make points (ie the people jumping off bridges and the people talking about 3 weeks of snow). I think all of us here believe there's a period of colder and snowier weather coming up. I'll believe it's longer term (10-20 days in duration) when that becomes more apparent, right now I think the Pac is going to be tough to beat and we'll see some Pac taint. I think we're all just hoping to see a solid week or so of threats. That part I agree with....I dont think anyone is (or should be) sold on any longer term type pattern flip here....Im more morbidly curious as to how bad it gets once the Pac goes to crap again....could it possibly be as bad as it was? Is that type of crap pattern possible for basically an entire winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You couldn't ask for a bigger discrepancy out west when you compare the GEFS and EC. Remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro ensembles still break down the ridge and try to torch the east near Valentines Day. They still continue that trend. Before that, there is still a pretty good storm signal near the 10th to the 12th as the long wave trough gets into a better position for some sort of storminess in the East. Obviously too early to say if it would be more interior or coastal...but the signals are there. It's what happens after that's the problem. We may break out of the pattern..or at least walk the line as mild Pacific air enters the country. However, guidance is still at a disagreement with the GEFS and GEM having more ridging, less Pacific flow and therefore colder air and a better trough signal in the east The EC flattens the ridge out and actually floods the country with milder air. This has been a trend in the last 48-60 hrs. It does to build a little ridging back up again near the end of the run as the Aleutian low tries to send more ridging into AK, but that's far out in time. The other guidance basically has trended a bit towards the EC, but they also remain a bit stubborn and do not break down the ridging. I'd still probably blend some of the guidance together, as all models may be displaying some of their bias in the long range, but you can't ignore what the EC is doing. However I think tropical forcing and placement of Aleutian low may argue that the EC could be a bit fast in flipping the PNA negative. Regardless, I just don't like seeing the better guidance show a quicker pattern flip and that concerns me. Ha ha.. oh man. Early spring after a failed -AO/+PNA... It's like Christopher Guest in Princes Bride: "You mean you've been chasing me your entire life only to fail now - that's got to be the worse thing I've ever heard. How marvelous" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro ensembles still break down the ridge and try to torch the east near Valentines Day. They still continue that trend. Before that, there is still a pretty good storm signal near the 10th to the 12th as the long wave trough gets into a better position for some sort of storminess in the East. Obviously too early to say if it would be more interior or coastal...but the signals are there. It's what happens after that's the problem. We may break out of the pattern..or at least walk the line as mild Pacific air enters the country. However, guidance is still at a disagreement with the GEFS and GEM having more ridging, less Pacific flow and therefore colder air and a better trough signal in the east The EC flattens the ridge out and actually floods the country with milder air. This has been a trend in the last 48-60 hrs. It does to build a little ridging back up again near the end of the run as the Aleutian low tries to send more ridging into AK, but that's far out in time. The other guidance basically has trended a bit towards the EC, but they also remain a bit stubborn and do not break down the ridging. I'd still probably blend some of the guidance together, as all models may be displaying some of their bias in the long range, but you can't ignore what the EC is doing. However I think tropical forcing and placement of Aleutian low may argue that the EC could be a bit fast in flipping the PNA negative. Regardless, I just don't like seeing the better guidance show a quicker pattern flip and that concerns me. that's not the greatest of news. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Ha ha.. oh man. Early spring after a failed -AO/+PNA... It's like Christopher Guest in Princes Bride: "You mean you've been chasing me your entire life only to fail now - that's got to be the worse thing I've ever heard. How marvelous" Well I'm not trying to suggest anything, other than what the models show. Some pretty large discrepancies, but I already went over some of the stuff I didn't like. It still seems like we have the best shot of ther winter for something other than a clipper near the 10th, regardless of what happens. I wouldn't call it a lock, but a pretty good signal. Either way we'll how the next 24 hrs look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 that's not the greatest of news. LOL. I'm surprised on the stubborness of both models. Hopefully we see some sort of a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm surprised on the stubborness of both models. Hopefully we see some sort of a compromise. hopefully. i'm not overly optimistic when the ec ens start to show something with a level of consistency like this though. obviously nothing we can do about it though, outside of just watching and seeing what happens. i'm using the TOL model though. it's been banging the drum for a month of cold/snow...hopefully it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Still sounds like we have a good 2-3 week period of winter till March spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Still sounds like we have a good 2-3 week period of winter till March spring TOL model FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 TOL model FTW Enjoy the TOL..it's the only ciold you've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Enjoy the TOL..it's the only ciold you've got LOL...i hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 hopefully. i'm not overly optimistic when the ec ens start to show something with a level of consistency like this though. obviously nothing we can do about it though, outside of just watching and seeing what happens. i'm using the TOL model though. it's been banging the drum for a month of cold/snow...hopefully it's right. Yeah that's how I feel regarding the euro. Tough to ignore and concerning. It didn't really get any worse at 500mb overall, so I'm hoping it tries to bring back the ridge closer to the west coast at 00z. But regardless, I already have an uneasy feeling. Lets hope that signal near the 10th stays strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 hopefully. i'm not overly optimistic when the ec ens start to show something with a level of consistency like this though. obviously nothing we can do about it though, outside of just watching and seeing what happens. i'm using the TOL model though. it's been banging the drum for a month of cold/snow...hopefully it's right. What was five days of consistently on the good side has now flipped. A 8-15 day period of good winter period is now a 2-3 day of a chance. IDK about you but there is zero consistency shown. It's not a good sign that the Euro has flipped in the long run after consistently banging the drum. The term useless does come to mind, living the 3 day life model wise now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 winter is coming this weekend into next week and will last to march with colder weather with snow. Some people still dont see that i cancel my stuff from accuweather because they one side and dont like people saying something different than there forecast . jb lc are the best out there . i would not be surprise we get big ones between now into march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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