Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well similar to this area. Temps drop and snow chances increase. Obviously you guys probably don't necessarily want the track to shift to the East Coast, but it may do that for a brief time, if the ridge sets up and we get split flow out west. It all depends on the position and the amplitude of that ridge out west and if there is any weak bermuda high anomaly given the neutral NAO anomaly. If we can get a storm track similar to 08-09 and perhaps 07-08 that would be great. I guess 08-09 was fair for most across the Grt Lakes/NE. Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The weeklies were definitely a switch. Impressive to see. The thing I notice about the Monday updates, is that they always look better than the Thursday set of weeklies that came out 4 days prior. You get all excited for some sort of change, but then the new set of weeklies come out Thursday and ruin it. I don't completely buy that -NAO. I sure hope so, but I think this whole thing is more -AO driven..not necessarily -NAO. But we'll see how it goes. If the ridge does try to break down out west, I'd like to see some of the models redevelop it again like they hinted at, on today's guidance. I just don't like seeing models break it down near the 10th. I agree. I get the feeling the positive height anomalies near Greenland could be somewhat short lived..or may not happen at all. I think there is much more support for the PNA ridge..but even that has been pushed back a bit on most guidance now with this cutoff low over the Central US on the models. The first ridge spike that goes up later this week really bulges to the east and pinches off the shortwave over the Plains..and that shoots positive height anomalies into Central Canada (see here). But the GFS superens were great again today...with a similar evolution to what is being described on the Euro weeklies. If we get any time of ridging towards Greenland with that PNA amplitude into British Columbia...we could really get into some good stuff. We can survive otherwise..but any Atlantic help would be ideal. The GFS super ens are below...looks pretty similar to what was described of the weeklies. 8-14 day and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It all depends on the position and the amplitude of that ridge out west and if there is any weak bermuda high anomaly given the neutral NAO anomaly. If we can get a storm track similar to 08-09 and perhaps 07-08 that would be great. I guess 08-09 was fair for most across the Grt Lakes/NE. Thanks man! If we get a big ridge out west, I don't think we'll have those tracks. It probably would be more clipper type stuff, with the flow coming out of the nw. I feel like we'll have a decent shot of some sort of East Coast low once the nrn stream flow relaxes a bit and possible split flow out west maybe ejects a s/w east. I know Will feels the same. Maybe sometime during the second week of the month. It's just speculation, and it could possible turn into a whiff or inland runner..but seems like that's our best shot so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Boy I hope the euro ensembles are wrong. They flood the country with PAC taint by Valentines Day. It's trying to confirm my fears from yesterday. It's the most aggressive right now so maybe it's too quick, but I don't like that one bit. Ugh. Sucks to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Boy I hope the euro ensembles are wrong. They flood the country with PAC taint by Valentines Day. It's trying to confirm my fears from yesterday. It's the most aggressive right now so maybe it's too quick, but I don't like that one bit. Ugh. Sucks to see. How do they do it..vortex reforms in AK? Coast to coast? What about canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Boy I hope the euro ensembles are wrong. They flood the country with PAC taint by Valentines Day. It's trying to confirm my fears from yesterday. It's the most aggressive right now so maybe it's too quick, but I don't like that one bit. Ugh. Sucks to see. This was the fear as the PNA ridge deamplifies as it heads east and the PV never gets down into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Boy I hope the euro ensembles are wrong. They flood the country with PAC taint by Valentines Day. It's trying to confirm my fears from yesterday. It's the most aggressive right now so maybe it's too quick, but I don't like that one bit. Ugh. Sucks to see. Weeklies and CFS flipped to cold..so Ens are out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 CMC and GEFS nothing like the euro. Scott, do the 11-15 range do the euro ensembles verify alot better vs USA/Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 CMC and GEFS nothing like the euro. Scott, do the 11-15 range do the euro ensembles verify alot better vs USA/Canada? Yeah in general they do. It's possible the EC may be overdoing it, but I just don't like seeing that. I suppose I would have to blend the guidance and give some weight to the GEFS and GEM, but they also tried to show it as well. It doesn't mean we can't have a good period, but I don't like seeing that. The GEFS and EC did try to show some ridging into the GOA near the end of the run, but not sure if it will do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Looks like the pattern shift is crumbling again. Pacific flow us unstoppable this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Maybe we can get the tanked ao and end up with a rotten stale putrid airmass. Boy I hope the euro ensembles are wrong. They flood the country with PAC taint by Valentines Day. It's trying to confirm my fears from yesterday. It's the most aggressive right now so maybe it's too quick, but I don't like that one bit. Ugh. Sucks to see. Yippee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well there's your storm right there. It's just next week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well there's your storm right there. It's just next week now. Looks like transient garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Boy I hope the euro ensembles are wrong. They flood the country with PAC taint by Valentines Day. It's trying to confirm my fears from yesterday. It's the most aggressive right now so maybe it's too quick, but I don't like that one bit. Ugh. Sucks to see. The beat goes on...... and the beat goes on. My apologies to Cher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The beat goes on...... and the beat goes on. My apologies to Cher. Well hopefully the EC is too quick, but the other guidance hints at it too. I'm a little surprised by how aggressive the EC ensemble is with this, so we'll see how today's ensembles look. I'm hoping it's being too aggressive, but it sniffed out the big reversal back before New Year's, so it's a bit of a concern. But until then, we probably have our best shot of the winter so lets hope something comes about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Expect a week, hope for two weeks of winter. Anything longer than that is going to be....as Picard would say resistance is futile...the Pac wins this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Expect a week, hope for two weeks of winter. Anything longer than that is going to be....as Picard would say resistance is futile...the Pac wins this year. Strongly agree. I'll be thrilled with 10 days and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Strongly agree. I'll be thrilled with 10 days and call it a day. two weeks is the dream....one week the reality anything in between the bonus. Hard to see how people expected more given the year. That's been the rub expectations go up but the same thing keeps happening and for the most part every few weeks we get 5-10 days of colder weather, crap, rinse, repeat. We'll likely get our shot in March too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We are wasting time and the calendar clock is relentlessly eating up what time we have left... Basically what you got here is stream dischord. The polarward jets are out of phase with the equatorial ones, and so everything is canceling out. In physics it’s call “deconstructive wave interference” … as opposed to “constructive wave interference” – both as defined. What is interesting is that 3 to 5 days ago, these global-based models were all stroking the constructive version – now, the opposite. That’s why these storm chances have gone poof! The AO is still exceedingly negative and the PNA is supposed to stay elevated for the foreseeable future. It may be that the operational guidance versions are all hiding events – effectively making them more like “miss-guidance” vs guidance. .. Anyway, at this point if you’re looking for those storms to come back, 24 hours from now the dynamics over the Pacific will come over land – there is some chance however big or small that a storm may re-appear in the guidance at that time; it would be the first of the big 2 events on the maps from 4 or so days ago. We've seen middle and extended range black outs on objects in the flow before, only to have them re-emerge at 84 or so hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 i take solace....with the belief that i can toss any model solution past 3.5 or 4 days ....esp w/ "model chaos" during the pattern change. Just confirm the MJO progession to phase 8 looks likely and that's enuf to hang my hat on for now....i think lol. So how did the 0vernite /12z models look with mjo progession to phase 8 for the 6-13 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I concede, shaved my hair, threw in the towel, putting in triple A callups, might score a few runs but will go to Maine to get my winter kicks. So sad so sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 well no matter the transition period and the transition storm talk i didnt' think any of it was for the 5h low to cut off for 3 days then become a lakes cutter and torch us on the 6'th and 7'th of february which was supposed to be the begining period of our good chances. thankfully this is in la la land but models showing the 5H low cutting off is gaining steam and then well .....looks like we get a cold and dry SB weekend. then warm up a couple days .....only to cool off and hope for cold/storminess around day 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 so basically its over for now...the threats that were line up for the next couple weeks. Its all gone by the wayside once again after looking so great a few days back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 MRG must have turned off the 3 billion BTU air conditioner he had running because even his old place is torching. http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap.htm Hope for a good week of winter and then we get ready for spring. Fire season is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I concede, shaved my hair, threw in the towel, putting in triple A callups, might score a few runs but will go to Maine to get my winter kicks. So sad so sorry. Triple XXX winter coming now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 so basically its over for now...the threats that were line up for the next couple weeks. Its all gone by the wayside once again after looking so great a few days back? I'm not sure where people are getting these ideas from. There were no imminent specific threats. Ever. I don't count phantom day 7+ threats. We mentioned the heart of the change not occurring until later next week witht he best chance of antything near the 10-12 of the month. There was the mention of possible clippers or redevelopers, but that was only based on pattern recognition with nw flow. There were never any mentions of imminent threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Triple XXX winter coming now Now it's the 10 th on, hopefully it lasts more than 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I remember when 10 or so days ago we thought it would be muted torches at the end of the month and people were mocking the earlier euro weeklies. 54 in taunton, 56 in providence, 58 in nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I remember when 10 or so days ago we thought it would be muted torches at the end of the month and people were mocking the earlier euro weeklies. 54 in taunton, 56 in providence, 58 in nyc. Yep people continue getting their hopes up over phantom pattern changes and have not come to the realization that the warm calls by such guidance as the CFS and ECMWF weeklies were pretty good temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 We are wasting time and the calendar clock is relentlessly eating up what time we have left... Basically what you got here is stream dischord. The polarward jets are out of phase with the equatorial ones, and so everything is canceling out. In physics it’s call “deconstructive wave interference” … as opposed to “constructive wave interference” – both as defined. What is interesting is that 3 to 5 days ago, these global-based models were all stroking the constructive version – now, the opposite. That’s why these storm chances have gone poof! The AO is still exceedingly negative and the PNA is supposed to stay elevated for the foreseeable future. It may be that the operational guidance versions are all hiding events – effectively making them more like “miss-guidance” vs guidance. .. Anyway, at this point if you’re looking for those storms to come back, 24 hours from now the dynamics over the Pacific will come over land – there is some chance however big or small that a storm may re-appear in the guidance at that time; it would be the first of the big 2 events on the maps from 4 or so days ago. We've seen middle and extended range black outs on objects in the flow before, only to have them re-emerge at 84 or so hours. Tips funky English coaxes some weenies off the edge. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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