Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Doesn't matter. PNA alone cannot keep a prolonged cold temp regime..As we have witnessed all winter. They are transient cold shots. The -NAO trumps that hands down. That is fact. Put that on your nape and tickle it When did it become prudent for you to lecture me on foundementals of Synoptic Meteorology - I am not making this stuff up. You, Kevin, don't know what you are talking about. Stop being little storm abandoned douche - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ding ding ding..We have a winner. Without a -NAO we don't sustain cold..Napes torch That's not what he said, dumbass ahahaha.. Man you're on a roll today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 When talking about a -NAO for sustained cold, are we talking about an East based vs west based argument, or ridging in the Davis Strait or just a basic Greenland block? Which one would help give us sustained cold the longest or is the most significant. Also what about the North Atlantic Ridge, how does that play into the -NAO argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 When did it become prudent for you to lecture me on foundementals of Synoptic Meteorology - I am not making this stuff up. You, Kevin, don't know what you are talking about. Stop being little storm abandoned douche - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I don't give a **** about cold/ sustained cold. Just give me a pattern that is suitable for good coastal development. That is upcoming. A -NAO helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 When talking about a -NAO for sustained cold, are we talking about an East based vs west based argument, or ridging in the Davis Strait or just a basic Greenland block? Which one would help give us sustained cold the longest or is the most significant. Also what about the North Atlantic Ridge, how does that play into the -NAO argument. The more classic -NAO is ridging into the Davis Straits and western Greenland imo. I think that placement is probably best for sustaining cold, because a west based -NAO may act to keep the cold further west into the Plains. However, west based -NAO can also help with forming big time lows off the Delmarva. So there are different ways to view it. An east based -NAO sometimes is too far east to really allow for sustained cold and snow, but a ridge poking into Greenland from the east may actually be a decent block..especially if the polar vortex gets pushed towards Hudson Bay. So you see, it's not just about what type of -NAO..it's all about the placement and orientation too. NATL ridges can be ok if you have a ridge into AK. It can act like a pinball machine and help keep the PV bouncing around near Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Oh ok I see. So what about the late October snow event, was that perfectly timed with a transient Davis Strait block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Oh ok I see. So what about the late October snow event, was that perfectly timed with a transient Davis Strait block? Yeah that had a decent -NAO. That was the real last good one. We've been raging + ever since for the most part. Ugly, and probably partly related to the solar activities . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Sam does bring up a point about having troughing at times into the GOA. It could act to try and reduce ridging amplitude, by sending disturbances into the ridge and breaking it down, but it also acts to enforce it as well..especially if places a little further west. A ridge like that is tough to maintain, so it's possible it weakens a little with the Pacific trying to undercut it, but if the MJO keep chugging along, you may see another emergence of this again. The end of the GEFS,EC and even GEM all sort of hint at this. Overall, it's tough to complain about this, especially given what we just went through. This has the potential to be pretty good to us, but I think just approach it as increased chances for wintry weather for about 8-15 days or so. If the MJO really cooperates..could be a little longer. Anyways JMHO. It is doing that on the EC ensembles. That trough into AK is knocking down the ridge a bit. Don't like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The good news I suppose, is that even if the ridge flattens...it may act to induce more split flow and help the chances out for larger East Coast storms. The arctic is all blocked up, so the PV is stuck down near the east side of Hudson Bay. I just don't like the trend of models trying to lower heights out west and near AK, but I suppose I shouldn't be picky after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Eh, bit of a step back in the last 24 hrs, but the arctic remains blocked up so that's good. Models def lower heights out west and start warming the country up again, but the models also try to get a little more ridging into AK again near the end of the runs, so it could be just the up-down-up thing. Anyways, we should watch that going forward, because it may alter things. The vortex still tries to give a remaining middle finger ..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Here we go again with this neurotic obsession with the NAO.... A sufficiently tanked EPO with the PNA relay underneath will drill some amazing cold all the way to Florida regardless of the NAO. In fact, just look at the D8-10 Euro mean - pretty much illustrates that. The PNA/EPO is certainly the best driving force for the most intense arctic shots in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hot off the presses..Euro weeklies much colder weeks 3 and 4. A flip noone saw coming !! FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Kevs going love the Weeklies, the AO is -4 plus, eventually the rubber band blows apart. Keep the faith guys. Sam after Wed your hanky sack days are numbered until late March. I knew this week would be full of meltdowns as we transition. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hot off the presses..Euro weeklies much colder weeks 3 and 4. A flip noone saw coming !! FTW Kevs going love the Weeklies, the AO is -4 plus, eventually the rubber band blows apart. Keep the faith guys. Sam after Wed your hanky sack days are numbered until late March. I knew this week would be full of meltdowns as we transition. I like it. LOL we both posted at the same time, by the way CFS saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 LOL we both posted at the same time, by the way CFS saw it. Yup..even Will had a tame meltdown after last nite's Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 We all know cold and some storminess is coming...but the Euro 4th week forecast has been pretty much attrocious the last few weeks. So... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hot off the presses..Euro weeklies much colder weeks 3 and 4. A flip noone saw coming !! FTW I did...even posted that I thought they'd cave with the MJO progs which seems to be their biggest influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yup..even Will had a tame meltdown after last nite's Euro Well I can't see them yet since not home. Hopefully they continued the ridging that showed up at the end of the ensemble runs today. I just didn't like the trends to try and invade us with Pacific air. Maybe that's only brief? Have to watch that no matter what weeklies show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I did...even posted that I thought they'd cave with the MJO progs which seems to be their biggest influence. Well I can't see them yet since not home. Hopefully they continued the ridging that showed up at the end of the ensemble runs today. I just didn't like the trends to try and invade us with Pacific air. Maybe that's only brief? Have to watch that no matter what weeklies show. Sig difference from ENS week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well I can't see them yet since not home. Hopefully they continued the ridging that showed up at the end of the ensemble runs today. I just didn't like the trends to try and invade us with Pacific air. Maybe that's only brief? Have to watch that no matter what weeklies show. Has to do with MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Sig difference from ENS week 2. If it's week 2 I would trust ensembles. Week 3 and 4 are usually what people care about. I'd like to see them for myself. Would be nice if indeed they are how you describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 "At least excuse imaginable" is one of my favorite expressions. It clarifies and captures the essense of the stubborn a-hole's spirit ... Here, the GFS keeps the SE ridge heights elevated at least excuse imaginable. +PNA and it even has a ridge over the Rockies' cordillerra, yet in a mind-boggling migraine it somehow simultaneously maintains a trough in that same location - it appears the trough aspect of that duality (only the GFS could find a way to have two objects occupy the same space and time...) is dumping latent heat from old Mexico into the heights over the SE. Annnyway, normally when 35vort maxes come over the top of ridge expansions like an 86 surfer, they dive in ... but because of the GFS' particular use of physically impossible mathematics, none of that can happen. Good For Schit model strikes again. Nyuk nyuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Has to do with MJO Could be but I would like to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Maybe we can get the tanked ao and end up with a rotten stale putrid airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hot off the presses..Euro weeklies much colder weeks 3 and 4. A flip noone saw coming !! FTW You got a link to the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Maybe we can get the tanked ao and end up with a rotten stale putrid airmass. jerry's elephant where caribou is 38/35 at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The weeklies were definitely a switch. Impressive to see. The thing I notice about the Monday updates, is that they always look better than the Thursday set of weeklies that came out 4 days prior. You get all excited for some sort of change, but then the new set of weeklies come out Thursday and ruin it. I don't completely buy that -NAO. I sure hope so, but I think this whole thing is more -AO driven..not necessarily -NAO. But we'll see how it goes. If the ridge does try to break down out west, I'd like to see some of the models redevelop it again like they hinted at, on today's guidance. I just don't like seeing models break it down near the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The weeklies were definitely a switch. Impressive to see. The thing I notice about the Monday updates, is that they always look better than the Thursday set of weeklies that came out 4 days prior. You get all excited for some sort of change, but then the new set of weeklies come out Thursday and ruin it. I don't completely buy that -NAO. I sure hope so, but I think this whole thing is more -AO driven..not necessarily -NAO. But we'll see how it goes. If the ridge does try to break down out west, I'd like to see some of the models redevelop it again like they hinted at, on today's guidance. I just don't like seeing models break it down near the 10th. Thats great, lets hope we can maintain that +PNA/-EPO and perhaps build a Weak -NAO anomaly. Even a Weak Ridge near Greenland would be helpful. Again I'm currently watching the MJO wave unfold and seeing how long it can persist through phases 7 thru 2. Perhaps we can develop a Kelvin Wave or two. Hope you dont mind, but what do they show for my region. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thats great, lets hope we can maintain that +PNA/-EPO and perhaps build a Weak -NAO anomaly. Even a Weak Ridge near Greenland would be helpful. Again I'm currently watching the MJO wave unfold and seeing how long it can persist through phases 7 thru 2. Perhaps we can develop a Kelvin Wave or two. Hope you dont mind, but what do they show for my region. Thanks! Well similar to this area. Temps drop and snow chances increase. Obviously you guys probably don't necessarily want the track to shift to the East Coast, but it may do that for a brief time, if the ridge sets up and we get split flow out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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