CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 There has been a subtle trend of heights trying to lower in AK. Yes there is a ridge, but over the last 48 hours..it seems the ridiculous anomalies have lessened. Models do wax ans=d wane with these, but just something to watch. It does seem like a second sort of "spike" in ridging occurs near the end of the runs..although offshore of the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If we can get a good amplitude MJO wave into Phase 1...it would definitely argue for something longer than 2 weeks. You would probably see the first PNA ridge from the push into phase 8. Maybe that weakens, but it's possible another ridge tries to form and take the place of the previous ridge, if it can continue past date line. Just thinking of scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 There has been a subtle trend of heights trying to lower in AK. Yes there is a ridge, but over the last 48 hours..it seems the ridiculous anomalies have lessened. Models do wax ans=d wane with these, but just something to watch. It does seem like a second sort of "spike" in ridging occurs near the end of the runs..although offshore of the west coast. Scott, I snuck a peak and saw you mentioned the MJO in that ...other thread (or maybe it was here?). Anyway, I find it interesting that: 1) the current wave strength has matured to moderate; the wave appears to have halted eastward propagation ...gaining strength in mid phase 6 over the last several days with no discerned eastward displacement. We've had troubles ever seeing Phase 7 - 8 - 1 wave positions this year for whatever reason (I suspect that has something to do with SST distribution in the NINO 4 region, as well as the vertical thermodynamic gradient, both acting to suppress convection in that region...). It will be interesting to see what a mid strength standing Phase 6 wave does. 2) that all said, ...interestingly the last 2 weeks et al the wave passed through Phase 5, and during that time the PNA has parted statistical company with it. The MJO does not appear to have much control presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Scott, I snuck a peak and saw you mentioned the MJO in that ...other thread (or maybe it was here?). Anyway, I find it interesting that: 1) the current wave strength has matured to moderate; the wave appears to have halted eastward propagation ...gaining strength in mid phase 6 over the last several days with no discerned eastward displacement. We've had troubles ever seeing Phase 7 - 8 - 1 wave positions this year for whatever reason (I suspect that has something to do with SST distribution in the NINO 4 region, as well as the vertical thermodynamic gradient, both acting to suppress convection in that region...). It will be interesting to see what a mid strength standing Phase 6 wave does. 2) that all said, ...interestingly the last 2 weeks et al the wave passed through Phase 5, and during that time the PNA has parted statistical company with it. The MJO does not appear to have much control presently. Not yet anyways. I'm not really sold on those robust GEFS MJO progs..lol, but seems like some good evidence of it going into P8 or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 LOL, the 12z Euro is trying desperately to get Jerry's '78 redux on the table... At hour 120 it has a weakening southern streamer in the Mississippi Valley that acts to "weaken" the geopotential medium such that a powerhouse polar impulse then threatens to subsume it from the N - I read a paper about this from my Dr. Frank Colby that demonstrated this sort of phenomenon. It's actually not that uncommon for stream interaction/phasing. 144 shows the N-stream diving in the GL...going to be interesting to see if the model bombs or bones us with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 LOL, the 12z Euro is trying desperately to get Jerry's '78 redux on the table... At hour 120 it has a weakening southern streamer in the Mississippi Valley that acts to "weaken" the geopotential medium such that a powerhouse polar impulse then threatens to subsume it from the N - I read a paper about this from my Dr. Frank Colby that demonstrated this sort of phenomenon. It's actually not that uncommon for stream interaction/phasing. 144 shows the N-stream diving in the GL...going to be interesting to see if the model bombs or bones us with this... O/T UML alum? Nice! Hockey team should move into top 10 national ranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wow, the 168 is about to go BANG ..eh, so it seems anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Squirrels actually look thinner...they realized there's no need to bulk up. I think normal to above normal 2/4-8, then colder for 1-3 weeks depending on all kinds of factors. So I'm not hopeful of anything meaningful snow wise prior to 2/10. I thought of you when I read this yesterday (Parade insert in the Sunday Glob)http://www.parade.com/news/views/connie-schultz/120129-the-bird-feeder-wars.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Sam does bring up a point about having troughing at times into the GOA. It could act to try and reduce ridging amplitude, by sending disturbances into the ridge and breaking it down, but it also acts to enforce it as well..especially if places a little further west. A ridge like that is tough to maintain, so it's possible it weakens a little with the Pacific trying to undercut it, but if the MJO keep chugging along, you may see another emergence of this again. The end of the GEFS,EC and even GEM all sort of hint at this. Overall, it's tough to complain about this, especially given what we just went through. This has the potential to be pretty good to us, but I think just approach it as increased chances for wintry weather for about 8-15 days or so. If the MJO really cooperates..could be a little longer. Anyways JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wow, the 168 is about to go BANG ..eh, so it seems anyway... yeah...has that look. but it goes bang about 1000 miles NE of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 O/T UML alum? Nice! Hockey team should move into top 10 national ranking You never read his famous diatribe on the girls on Leach Beach? (or where ever it was) in Dec 1992? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 O/T UML alum? Nice! Hockey team should move into top 10 national ranking Yeah, he was the Lab/accademic mentor for most ...still is I believe. Great guy. Math genius - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Remember, dead ratter years find ways to screw us. Nevertheless the signs are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Euro really drops the AO into the basement by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Compliments from the Pacific. If the Atlantic wakes up, it would be a lot colder for the east coast. It looks increasingly probable that the eastern third plus the southern plains will be colder than average by Feb 20th... and I doubt the last week of Feb will erase those anomalies. Mexico FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You never read his famous diatribe on the girls on Leach Beach? (or where ever it was) in Dec 1992? haha, do you still have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Mexico FTW That guy is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That guy is very good. Yes he is. I believe he's a hidden met. The guys a gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 haha, do you still have that? lol, no.... Buried somewhere in the bowels of the eastern server. It was La Epic though.Anyway, hopefully we get something to shake out, even if it is a shredded piece o' crap that can set the stage for a powder keg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yes he is. I believe he's a hidden met. The guys a gem My guess is Feb around these parts will avg out above. If I'm wrong, it's because the ridge out west lasts for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 My guess is Feb around these parts will avg out above. If I'm wrong, it's because the ridge out west lasts for a long time. Well the first week may be solidly +5, the 2nd week near normal to a bit below. Beyond there is the question. By the end of the month its easier to get negative anomalies with climo rising at an accelerating pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well the first week may be solidly +5, the 2nd week near normal to a bit below. Beyond there is the question. By the end of the month its easier to get negative anomalies with climo rising at an accelerating pace. Just a guess. I don't expect like +4 or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 My guess is Feb around these parts will avg out above. If I'm wrong, it's because the ridge out west lasts for a long time. As long as we get the NAO to go negative for a spell this will be a below avg month..If we only have the Pacific..it won;t be. LL has +3.9 at BOS in the Feb forecast contest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 As long as we get the NAO to go negative for a spell this will be a below avg month..If we only have the Pacific..it won;t be. LL has +3.9 at BOS in the Feb forecast contest lol I think the NAO still won't go negative for a prolonged spell. It's going to be all about the Pacific. There is some ridging into Greenland, but it doesn't seem to last for a prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Here we go again with this neurotic obsession with the NAO.... A sufficiently tanked EPO with the PNA relay underneath will drill some amazing cold all the way to Florida regardless of the NAO. In fact, just look at the D8-10 Euro mean - pretty much illustrates that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Here we go again with this neurotic obsession with the NAO.... A sufficiently tanked EPO with the PNA relay underneath will drill some amazing cold all the way to Florida regardless of the NAO. In fact, just look at the D8-10 Euro mean - pretty much illustrates that. Doesn't matter. PNA alone cannot keep a prolonged cold temp regime..As we have witnessed all winter. They are transient cold shots. The -NAO trumps that hands down. That is fact. Put that on your nape and tickle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Doesn't matter. PNA alone cannot keep a prolonged cold temp regime..As we have witnessed all winter. They are transient cold shots. The -NAO trumps that hands down. That is fact. Put that on your nape and tickle it I know what he means. A -NAO actually can force the coldest air west into the Plains. But, it helps keep sufficient cold into the northeast, when other things become unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I know what he means. A -NAO actually can force the coldest air west into the Plains. But, it helps keep sufficient cold into the northeast, when other things become unfavorable. Ding ding ding..We have a winner. Without a -NAO we don't sustain cold..Napes torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 As long as we get the NAO to go negative for a spell this will be a below avg month..If we only have the Pacific..it won;t be. LL has +3.9 at BOS in the Feb forecast contest lol lol, its +3.1, I absolutely destroyed you all fall and again in January. I only played 7 months and finished 26th, almost caught you, thats pretty pathetic since you had a 4 month cushion. We will see how your negative temps come in next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ding ding ding..We have a winner. Without a -NAO we don't sustain cold..Napes torch Guess you forgot how cold 1993-94 was with a +NAO. -AO/EPO will work just fine if PNA is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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