Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Was just thnking that. Lots of fun looks more and more likely but I'm curbing my enthusiasm until it's literally on the doorstep. Exactly we have seen the very best setups fail many times over the years and got dumped on with terrible setups. However the depicted setup is as good as it gets to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Exactly we have seen the very best setups fail many times over the years and got dumped on with terrible setups. However the depicted setup is as good as it gets to produce. Rev Kev says get naked I wish we could fast forward to Weds/Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Tim Kelly is chuckin' 'em "Cold dry air is here for Monday. Then the boundary separating our brief cold spell, and more spring like warmth will bring an inch or two of snow for Tuesday. A wave of low pressure of Pacific origin is racing across Canada, and will cross Maine Wednesday with snow and cold for Ontario, Quebec and northern Maine, even as the temperature pushes 60 in Boston. A weak cold fron pushes to our south on Groundhog Day. Then we watch a series of Paicific origin storms tarck south of New England Friday and over the weekend. Any one of these storms has potential to bring rain and snow February 3 and on. This is the anniversary of The Blizzard of 1978, a very high stakes time period for Nor'easter's. The stage is set for an extreme event, given the extreme temperature gradient in North America this winter. It will be surprising of we make it through February 2012 without enduring a major to severe Nor'easter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 When does Pete get back from his little soiree in Alaska? Would be just awful if he missed a major or severe noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 When does Pete get back from his little soiree in Alaska? Would be just awful if he missed a major or severe noreaster. He shows up in AK, the vortex departs to come our way.. I wonder if he's me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Turtle's AFD is funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think we've flushed the starting pitcher who was pitching a gem...we're into the bullpen now finally...time to take advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think we've flushed the starting pitcher who was pitching a gem...we're into the bullpen now finally...time to take advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Great news to read about this stuff... man you guys go to town when you get excited. Dumping outside the window now and reading about the possibility of huge east coast storms... doesn't get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think we've flushed the starting pitcher who was pitching a gem...we're into the bullpen now finally...time to take advantage. Hopefully this isn't a case of that relief pitcher having a 9.25 ERA and then coming in and throwing 4 perfect shut-out innings for the first time of the season in like September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 As far as the pattern goes and snow chances, obviously we are going to undergo a change. But it's still all about trough position and s/w timing, so I would not be shocked of a few storms get suppressed or shredded at first. We'll be nrn stream dominant in nw flow, so it may be just clippers or redevelopers in the beginning. Then hopefully, we'll get the trough to back up enough to have larger threats come up the coast, or at least stronger Miller B type deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro ensembles actually show more ridging into Greenland than they have thus far. It almost looks like it tries to retrograde the northern part of the Scandanavian ridge into Greenland...however, its still not your classic NAO block...but it does help force the PV into SE Canada. It has like -15C at 850 over SNE on Feb 9-10 because of this...which is pretty impressive for an ensemble mean that far out...we'll have to see how it goes as we get closer. We might be moving toward a much colder scenario at least for a few days...when I started this thread, I figured it would be a decent snow pattern for us...but wasn't sure on the magnitude of the cold. But it looks like we could get a pretty good outbreak now. Still time for it to change though. Yeah the GEFS last week were always showing the PNA ridge coming up, but had all the cold air stuck into Asia as the Alaskan vortex dislodged further west...now they are breaking off a chunk and spilling it over the ridge.. then the AO blocking connects to the the PNA as the cold dumps into se Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I find it peculiar that the EC ensembles form troughing out west so much more than the GEFS and Canadian. Not only do they try to get some ridging into the --NAO region, they are also very aggressive with the MJO going into Phase 8. That would also argue against troughing out west. I just find it odd. If there is one thing that irks me about the EC..it's the bias for troughing out that way. I suppose it may be right, but it could be just to quick to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Nice switch on the CFS weeklies, some cold finally appearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Nice switch on the CFS weeklies, some cold finally appearing That might finally flip Don S thinking. He loves that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If the proverbial you were one waiting on model runs regarding specific events, I wouldn’t let it get you down. The Euro never really had the same system(s) as the GFS – they might have appeared so, but it was purely coincidental, as they were a day or so apart, and keying in on different parental impulses in doing so. Most of what we have seen so far is purely model-based entertainment – LOW determinism. But we knew/know that… It's been heavily mentioned in every discussion from every office big and small, that confidence was exceptionally low. That said, the governing canvas still features a heavily negative AO and a solidly positive PNA, so if you are indeed one that hopes on winter storms your circumstance is not entirely hopeless for the time being. Personally…I wish it would go 70+F with the smell of Lilacs and girls jogging in teeny shorts, because this winter could snow 90 inches at this point and I couldn’t care less. It’s already been too criminal to redeem its self – HAHAHA. Seriously though, I was walking from my car to the office this morning in a moment when the wind dropped off randomly and left my face and napes to the mercy of the sun's brilliance and warm, and I was in the moment taken out of winter and placed squarely in summer in my sentiments; it was a place didn’t want to return from. Objectively, the dynamics that the previous GFS solutions were keying on are still out over the Pacific. In fact, think about it for a moment… it’s pretty classic modeling behavior to have a “black out” period in the late middle ranges. We have seen countless times, a big system in the extended, disappear …only to come storming back at around 108 or whatever hours. Is this one of those deals? Sure, possible… And, (imho) it all has to do with spatial-temporality of S/Ws passing in and out of better and worse regions of data ingest for the model initializations, and given to the fact that heretofore all of which still is way out over the vast expanse of the Pac abyssal plain …heh, you get what you pay for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If the proverbial you were one waiting on model runs regarding specific events, I wouldn’t let it get you down. The Euro never really had the same system(s) as the GFS – they might have appeared so, but it was purely coincidental, as they were a day or so apart, and keying in on different parental impulses in doing so. Most of what we have seen so far is purely model-based entertainment – LOW determinism. But we knew/know that… It's been heavily mentioned in every discussion from every office big and small, that confidence was exceptionally low. That said, the governing canvas still features a heavily negative AO and a solidly positive PNA, so if you are indeed one that hopes on winter storms your circumstance is not entirely hopeless for the time being. Personally…I wish it would go 70+F with the smell of Lilacs and girls jogging in teeny shorts, because this winter could snow 90 inches at this point and I couldn’t care less. It’s already been too criminal to redeem its self – HAHAHA. Seriously though, I was walking from my car to the office this morning in a moment when the wind dropped off randomly and left my face and napes to the mercy of the sun's brilliance and warm, and I was in the moment taken out of winter and placed squarely in summer in my sentiments; it was a place didn’t want to return from. Objectively, the dynamics that the previous GFS solutions were keying on are still out over the Pacific. In fact, think about it for a moment… it’s pretty classic modeling behavior to have a “black out” period in the late middle ranges. We have seen countless times, a big system in the extended, disappear …only to come storming back at around 108 or whatever hours. Is this one of those deals? Sure, possible… And, (imho) it all has to do with spatial-temporality of S/Ws passing in and out of better and worse regions of data ingest for the model initializations, and given to the fact that heretofore all of which is way out over the vast expanse of the Pac abyssal plain …heh, you get what you pay for. For the love of God..call it the neck..not the nape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 For the love of God..call it the neck..not the nape ...The nips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This might be OT - but it was a good indicator last winter. Mid Dec '10 featured a very cold and snowy Europe (from GB to Italy) Well, ever since studying in Florence, I have kept the mac weather app up for FLR. Guess what, this week features multiple snow chances and highs in the low-mid 30s. In Dec. '10 it took 10 days for the eastern US to realize a colder and snowier pattern. Perhaps history repeats itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This might be OT - but it was a good indicator last winter. Mid Dec '10 featured a very cold and snowy Europe (from GB to Italy) Well, ever since studying in Florence, I have kept the mac weather app up for FLR. Guess what, this week features multiple snow chances and highs in the low-mid 30s. In Dec. '10 it took 10 days for the eastern US to realize a colder and snowier pattern. Perhaps history repeats itself. Whether you know this or not (perhaps you do...) western Europe teleconnects with eastern N/A. - this is known... and it has to do with typology of Rosby wave spacing. L/W here tend to co-exist with L/W there and the same with ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Interesting mention of Italy because I saw the start of the Inter Milan - Lecce game last night and noted how cold it looked - everybody bundled up, then the announcers mentioned the strange weather all over the peninsula, "at least it is only rain and not the snow like everywhere lately..." All I got from it at the time was the gratification that somebody out there is seeing winter, but maybe there is more to it than that. If there isn't then I'm getting in the car and driving north until I find winter or the roads run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Is it still going to get cold and potentially snowy? Everything looks to be on track so why are people tipping chairs again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Is it still going to get cold and potentially snowy? Everything looks to be on track so why are people tipping chairs again? I don't know. If they just understand this as a change to a much better pattern to offer up chances, then I think it is on track. I hope people don't expect Feb 2003 all over again. Could it get very cold and snowy, possibly...but it's not textbook for that yet. It's certainly night and day compared to what we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I don't know. If they just understand this as a change to a much better pattern to offer up chances, then I think it is on track. I hope people don't expect Feb 2003 all over again. Could it get very cold and snowy, possibly...but it's not textbook for that yet. It's certainly night and day compared to what we had. We need an extended cold snap to thin out Jerry's squirrels. The ones around here are so large I fear a Rise of the Planet of the Squirrels type scenario if they coast through February and March warm. It's been so warm they're putting sundecks on their nests down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 We need an extended cold snap to thin out Jerry's squirrels. The ones around here are so large I fear a Rise of the Planet of the Squirrels type scenario if they coast through February and March warm. It's been so warm they're putting sundecks on their nests down this way. Squirrels actually look thinner...they realized there's no need to bulk up. I think normal to above normal 2/4-8, then colder for 1-3 weeks depending on all kinds of factors. So I'm not hopeful of anything meaningful snow wise prior to 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Squirrels actually look thinner...they realized there's no need to bulk up. I think normal to above normal 2/4-8, then colder for 1-3 weeks depending on all kinds of factors. So I'm not hopeful of anything meaningful snow wise prior to 2/10. Feb won't erase what's happened but it should be pretty normal overall...at least I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 And again to stress....any upcoming change will offer better chances to get colder weather and snow. It's not a lock to get KUs and the ridging may also not be as aggressive as some progs have, but it should start to materialize in the next 7-8 days. So if this doesn't produce anything special, I wouldn't be shocked, but at the same time..it could offer the chance of a larger storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 And again to stress....any upcoming change will offer better chances to get colder weather and snow. It's not a lock to get KUs and the ridging may also not be as aggressive as some progs have, but it should start to materialize in the next 7-8 days. So if this doesn't produce anything special, I wouldn't be shocked, but at the same time..it could offer the chance of a larger storm or two. the 12z euro better stop closing the 5H out west....otherwise we could look forward to the shorter range of this pattern "change" time frame playing out. that flat out blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Squirrels actually look thinner...they realized there's no need to bulk up. I think normal to above normal 2/4-8, then colder for 1-3 weeks depending on all kinds of factors. So I'm not hopeful of anything meaningful snow wise prior to 2/10. You've got bigger problems, they're taunting you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 the 12z euro better stop closing the 5H out west....otherwise we could look forward to the shorter range of this pattern "change" time frame playing out. that flat out blows Well the cutoff could happen, but what I'm looking out for, is the ridging to get reduced out west. You don't want PAC flow to taint anything. Could be split flow which is good for storm chances, but I don't want to see ridging get chopped, up in nw Canada. I think we need to keep an eye out for that. Remember, we said it could offer an 8-15 day window too...this isn't supposed to be a 6 week deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.