Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL I knew Will would delete that pic What pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL I knew Will would delete that pic Don't be surprised if it resurfaces in some form. Muahahahaha .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL, what a weenie depiction on the GEFS. Negative tilt trough FTW later in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL, what a weenie depiction on the GEFS. Negative tilt trough FTW later in the 11-15 day. Hard to not love the signs from this coming late weekend moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Hard to not love the signs from this coming late weekend moving forward. Agree. Hard not to fall in love, but we need this to continue as we get closer. Always aware of change in the models. But, so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Agree. Hard not to fall in love, but we need this to continue as we get closer. Always aware of change in the models. But, so far so good. There is a lot of reasons this can phail but hey we have a chance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There is a lot of reasons this can phail but hey we have a chance anyway. If I get 10-14 days of real winter with snow chances I'll be ok. This often doesn't happen in dead ratter winters. If we're moving towards warm again by mid Feb, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 I posted this in the main forum... I think the risk for a KU type event is elevated in this pattern...certainly way more than the pattern we have seen for the last 8 weeks. I won't predict what the temp anomalies will be in the east for the entire month, but during the period of Feb 5-Feb 18 or so...I believe there will be a shot at a larger east coast winter event. "Elevated" risk does not mean likely, but it means a much greater chance than the miniscule chance of such an event in an average pattern or certainly in the pattern we've seen. Some of the similar patterns in the objective CPC analogs of the GEFS and GGEM ensembles were that of large storms in Jan 1961, Feb 1995, Feb 1996, Jan 2005, and Feb 2006, There were also many patterns listed that were amplified but did not produce, but such is the nature of these types of patterns, some of them produce and some don't. The one mitigiating factor that would create a little more pause for such an event would be the NAO...we lack a nice NAO block. But as displayed in the events listed above, such an NAO block is not necessary to get a storm...it simply increases the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yeah the chance of larger storms certainly is there, once the trough shifts west a bit, but even before that...it only takes one strong s/w to bend the height field and boom. When you start seeing actual low centers modeled at like d15 and d16...you know there must be some good agreement for something like that to show up so far out in the future. That's why part of me is kind of excited looking at the data, but for now..we'll just watch how it all transpires. Like Will said, those dates had some big time storms and some that did not..so you know it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro is going to bring the motherload of cold this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Great Euro run for SNH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I don't have time to get into all the why-details but this is the best Euro run for shear entertainment value I have seen since the days leading up to the end of October! Multi storm threat with deep blue arctic invasion not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Something to watch going forward. Just like models were not handling the +AO well and greatly underforecasted it, they are also not handling the AO and even NAO well as they dip negative. The analyzed AO and NAO have been near the bottom of the forecasts per Ryan Maue's site. http://policlimate.com/weather/oscillation.html What does it mean for us? Nothing really at the moment...just something I found interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Something to watch going forward. Just like models were not handling the +AO well and greatly underforecasted it, they are also not handling the AO and even NAO well as they dip negative. The analyzed AO and NAO have been near the bottom of the forecasts per Ryan Maue's site. http://policlimate.c...scillation.html What does it mean for us? Nothing really at the moment...just something I found interesting. Well...I think it means more - imo. The "correction vector" is finally pointed favorably for winter weather enthusiasts - if that's your bag. That really hasn't been the case at any other point up until now this cold season. We'll see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Well...I think it means more - imo. The "correction vector" is finally pointed favorably for winter weather enthusiasts - if that's your bag. That really hasn't been the case at any other point up until now this cold season. We'll see how it pans out. Well yeah..I meant more or less maybe down the road. But as far as imminent threats, I don't think it implies much..meaning the next 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There is a huge amount of potency ejecting through the intermountain West on this 18z NAM run - more than priors. I suspect this is a sampling issue with the dynamics in question coming into the NAM's domain space over the far eastern Pac. Interesting... one must wonder if the 18Z GFS won't pick up where this run is leaving off if somehow it got additional data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro ensembles have a more -NAO pattern around Feb 10...they have def been trending more toward that. Again, the not the classic Davis straight block, but a Greenland ridge. They are breaking down the +PNA toward Feb 12-15 but it still has a -EPO block over and north of AK which is good...it doesn't return the vortex to AK..at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro ensembles trended a bit higher with heights in Greenland after losing it a bit on the 00z run. They also brought back a -PNA out west. It's almost like the PNA ridge retrogrades, but then tries to form an AK/Aleutian ridge which still can be ok with the vortex near Hudson Bay. It's definitely the most bullish with the -PNA. Could be playing into its bias, or perhaps have the right idea. Either way, I don't see any sign of the death vortex at all, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro ensembles have a more -NAO pattern around Feb 10...they have def been trending more toward that. Again, the not the classic Davis straight block, but a Greenland ridge. They are breaking down the +PNA toward Feb 12-15 but it still has a -EPO block over and north of AK which is good...it doesn't return the vortex to AK..at least not yet. Euro ensembles trended a bit higher with heights in Greenland after losing it a bit on the 00z run. They also brought back a -PNA out west. It's almost like the PNA ridge retrogrades, but then tries to form an AK/Aleutian ridge which still can be ok with the vortex near Hudson Bay. It's definitely the most bullish with the -PNA. Could be playing into its bias, or perhaps have the right idea. Either way, I don't see any sign of the death vortex at all, which is good. LOL, two sickos looking for the same pattern features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 As long as we can keep the EPO and NAO we can weather the loss of the PNA fairly easily. If EPO gets flushed out, NAO will have a hard time sustaining I think. Nice snowy pattern depicted as described on the euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL, two sickos looking for the same pattern features. Yeah that was impeccable timing, lol. My guess is the Euro is probably breaking down the ridge a little quick...but even if it isn't, the EPO block is still there so that pattern would be fine. Its still technically a +PNA pattern with the low heights SW of the Aleutians and the higher heights in NW Canada...just that the heights in the PAC NW start to get below avg. Split flow like that isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as the trough in the west doesn't get really deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Prob around Feb 10-11 is the most dream looking pattern on the Euro ensembles if you had to pick a couple frames out of the set...it still has the uber amped west ridge with the ridging in Greenland at its peak and the PV in SE Canada beginning to retreat a little allowing for the mean trough to shift west for a larger type event. Pure speculation obviously, but that would probably be the most favorable period for a storm that hits a lot of people on the eats coast and not just a Miller B for ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yeah that was impeccable timing, lol. My guess is the Euro is probably breaking down the ridge a little quick...but even if it isn't, the EPO block is still there so that pattern would be fine. Its still technically a +PNA pattern with the low heights SW of the Aleutians and the higher heights in NW Canada...just that the heights in the PAC NW start to get below avg. Split flow like that isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as the trough in the west doesn't get really deep. Yeah good point. It doesn't bother me seeing heights lower since we have that block to the north and the AK vortex is not there at all. It's had a bias all winter of doing that to a point. I like seeing the PV in Hudson Bay because it's a source of possible cold air and shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Prob around Feb 10-11 is the most dream looking pattern on the Euro ensembles if you had to pick a couple frames out of the set...it still has the uber amped west ridge with the ridging in Greenland at its peak and the PV in SE Canada beginning to retreat a little allowing for the mean trough to shift west for a larger type event. Pure speculation obviously, but that would probably be the most favorable period for a storm that hits a lot of people on the eats coast and not just a Miller B for ourselves. It continues with the lower pressure just offshore, for like 2 days straight..lol. Definitely some members at some point tossing out storms.That's probably when the MA gets into the action..potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z GEFS have come around to more of a Euro idea with more ridging in Greenland around Feb 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z GEFS have come around to more of a Euro idea with more ridging in Greenland around Feb 10-12 ... The details on this run are mind boggling... wow. 30 hour, 20" monster next weekend. Then, if that were not enough, a TC comes out of the Gulf, cross Florida, phases with an arctic S/W off the Del Marva, and threatens to remove New England off the face of the planet - LMAOGood thing that's at 240+ hours otherwise we might lack confidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Classic look, need a match to ignite the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Classic look, need a match to ignite the dynamite. Was just thnking that. Lots of fun looks more and more likely but I'm curbing my enthusiasm until it's literally on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Jan 1978 storm then the Blizz, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Jan 1978 storm then the Blizz, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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