Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Will or Scott, is the OP 12z ECMWF development of the NAO (day 9-10) a weenie solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Will or Scott, is the OP 12z ECMWF development of the NAO (day 9-10) a weenie solution? Well its pretty east based...its got some support by the ensembles. It would help us some, but its not a classic block. Still I'd rather have ridging over there than a vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Will or Scott, is the OP 12z ECMWF development of the NAO (day 9-10) a weenie solution? While you're waiting for your answer, here's something to consider...looks like a weenie run in comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Same deal. I try and answer when I can but sometimes it takes a while. Ask anyone who texts me. Not sure why you get so bent out of shape over it. LOL..I'm only partially serious..You are busy I know.All we ask is a reply back to our texts 100% of the time. I appreciate all the info you give us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 My god, man. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 LOL, Kevin is so direct and black and white. Always the type that plans things out and needs a response. Anyways, GEFS have the low, but pretty far offshore, east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 LOL, Kevin is so direct and black and white. Always the type that plans things out and needs a response. Anyways, GEFS have the low, but pretty far offshore, east of the BM. I take it you mean the first low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 LOL, Kevin is so direct and black and white. Always the type that plans things out and needs a response. Anyways, GEFS have the low, but pretty far offshore, east of the BM. Look at the kink in the isobars on the ensemble mean hanging back into the lakes and then offshore. That's pretty cool to see. Def Miller B-esque. Basically through the whole run in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I take it you mean the first low? Well the GEFS only have the low on Saturday. Like Will said, big time kink in the isobars to the west, so I would think there are a few weenie solutions there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Look at the kink in the isobars on the ensemble mean hanging back into the lakes and then offshore. That's pretty cool to see. Def Miller B-esque. Basically through the whole run in the long run. Did you see the end of the EC run? It has a semi-permanent low pressure trough offshore, aligned ssw-nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Relax Will didn't answer my texts, I'm a little high strung at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 so in a nutshell the Euro Op is snowtastic, ens probably develop everything a little late because of less blocking...the GFS etc aren't quite as nice but are likely very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Will didn't answer my texts, I'm a little high strung at the moment Don't bother texting him unless it's in the wee hours of the morning after a great run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think much of sne will have between 20-30 inches of snow in Feb, +. Things are looking pretty impressive for at least a complete two week reversal of the current weather pattern. I am pretty stoked for a complete reversal for the final 30 days of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Some nice ridging up into Alaska and western Canada, sharp trough into the east with a trough axis settling just far enough west, negative AO, possible split flow and potential high latitude blocking. The ingredients are there for a special Feb, hopefully everything breaks just right but lr ens are promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro ensembles actually show more ridging into Greenland than they have thus far. It almost looks like it tries to retrograde the northern part of the Scandanavian ridge into Greenland...however, its still not your classic NAO block...but it does help force the PV into SE Canada. It has like -15C at 850 over SNE on Feb 9-10 because of this...which is pretty impressive for an ensemble mean that far out...we'll have to see how it goes as we get closer. We might be moving toward a much colder scenario at least for a few days...when I started this thread, I figured it would be a decent snow pattern for us...but wasn't sure on the magnitude of the cold. But it looks like we could get a pretty good outbreak now. Still time for it to change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro ensembles actually show more ridging into Greenland than they have thus far. It almost looks like it tries to retrograde the northern part of the Scandanavian ridge into Greenland...however, its still not your classic NAO block...but it does help force the PV into SE Canada. It has like -15C at 850 over SNE on Feb 9-10 because of this...which is pretty impressive for an ensemble mean that far out...we'll have to see how it goes as we get closer. We might be moving toward a much colder scenario at least for a few days...when I started this thread, I figured it would be a decent snow pattern for us...but wasn't sure on the magnitude of the cold. But it looks like we could get a pretty good outbreak now. Still time for it to change though. I hope the snow chances are still in play ..If it gets cold and everything gets suppressed deaths will happen by the hundreds around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There are some signs that we could have an impressive cold dump...look at the end of the euro op. I like that ridging into Greenland too. Lets hope this all keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro is still quickest to weaken the ridging out west, although it still has it in NW Canada. Hopefully it's -PNA bias is at play, because the GEM and GEFS still have a healthy ridge at hr 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro is still quickest to weaken the ridging out west, although it still has it in NW Canada. Hopefully it's -PNA bias is at play, because the GEM and GEFS still have a healthy ridge at hr 360. GFS CPC analogs are down since 1/27...too bad...the GGEM ones are still working and they have like 3 or 4 different big storms on their dates including Jan 1961, Jan 2005, Feb '06, and Feb '96. The magnitude of the meridional flow definitely tells me that we'll have some chances at miller B redevelopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 I hope the snow chances are still in play ..If it gets cold and everything gets suppressed deaths will happen by the hundreds around here I wouldn't worry too much about a parade of storms getting suppressed...we could get one that does it, but it shouldn't be a reccurring theme without a big block to our northeast. We should have plenty of threats to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS CPC analogs are down since 1/27...too bad...the GGEM ones are still working and they have like 3 or 4 different big storms on their dates including Jan 1961, Jan 2005, Feb '06, and Feb '96. The magnitude of the meridional flow definitely tells me that we'll have some chances at miller B redevelopers. Yeah agree on that. It looks like we could transition from a pattern of redevelopers or Miller Bs, into more of a widespread coastal storm threat towards the 10th or so, as the trough retros a bit. It's just speculation at this point, but that's kind of how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This is nice to see. Good amplitude with perhaps better odds of this going through phase 8 and hopefully phase 1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Days and days of model agreement. Polar opposite of last winter which rocked until Feb and then dead ratted. This one dead ratted to date and NW may rock. This a better explanation Kevin? Olr man winter's now lumbered up.,will be doing some stints this week. Game on within a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 So I think it is safe to say that the Euro and the ensembles have "off the charts" +PNA...literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Given the mjo progs and the ensemble modeling, won't the weeklies cave tomorrow? Are Monday's weeklies based on Thursdqy initialization or do we have to wait till thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Given the mjo progs and the ensemble modeling, won't the weeklies cave tomorrow? Are Monday's weeklies based on Thursdqy initialization or do we have to wait till thursday? Good question. They do have a coupled ocean-atmospheric model so perhaps they will slow how quickly the PNA gets squashed, but I'm not sure how much they change. The EC ensembles did try to flatten heights out west by the end of their run, but still had ridging in NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL I knew Will would delete that pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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