CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I posted this in the DC thread. ALso, the MJO progression as modeled looks great. Wes, I thought at first the pattern was very nrn stream dominant. You had a ridge that basically extends from the desert sw into the NW Territories at the beginning of the period. The trough axis is pretty far east, actually over New England, hence why it may be more conducive to clippers or redevelopers. The NAO is still positive imo, and the Caspian ridge tries to nose in from the northeast, into Greenland. By hr 300 the trough axis retrogrades west and is over the latitude of the eastern Great Lakes region..maybe near 80W, we'll say. We see some ridging into northeast Greenland..possible part of the Caspian ridge, but I wouldn't really classify this as a -NAO. Out west, the ridge still holds strong, but now we see heights lower just a bit across California. Seems like it tries to get split flow going near the Baja of California. Still very nrn stream dominant with the flow coming out of the Canadian Plains, but at least the trough axis retrogrades just a bit and with heights trying to lower,....you can always get disturbances trying to move across the south. By hr 360, the trough axis backs up a bit more, and the ridging into northeast Greenland is a bit more pronounced, but again..I struggle to call it a classic -NAO. The ridging out west flattens out, but it does look like we have split flow over the southwest with subtle troughing. The ridging still holds pretty strong across NW Canada, despite how far out it is on the ensembles means. SO potentially, you could have enough meridional flow providing cold and possible nrn stream s/w's and then hope something comes along from whatever happens across the southwest. Of course, this is what the 11-15 day shows, so take it FWIW. I know you guys need a more classic -NAO and the nrn stream can screw you guys, but perhaps if the flow is as meridional as models show..you can get something to cook up. I still feel like I have the "believe it when I see it" but it's nice to see guidance and tropical forcing trying to hint at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Scott...thanks. I understand its mostly in the day 11 to 15 time frame but has the timing improved at all? It seems like these great runs starting showing up 3-4 days ago so I was just wondering if the timing moved up at all? Or if it was 10 days away Monday and is still 10 days away today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Scott...thanks. I understand its mostly in the day 11 to 15 time frame but has the timing improved at all? It seems like these great runs starting showing up 3-4 days ago so I was just wondering if the timing moved up at all? Or if it was 10 days away Monday and is still 10 days away today? I think timing of this seems to be going as planned. Maybe a day or two difference, but it seems to be moving along as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Euro ensembles are awesome for us post-Feb 5th...just a really nice looking pattern. Hopefully we can get it to verify and cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 1-3 area wide sunday night, decent piece of energy coming through......I am liking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Euro ensembles are awesome for us post-Feb 5th...just a really nice looking pattern. Hopefully we can get it to verify and cash in. Did you see what I meant across CA?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Did you see what I meant across CA?? Yeah there is definitely some potential for split flow or some disturbances crossing the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yeah there is definitely some potential for split flow or some disturbances crossing the south. Mudslides in California being triggered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yeah there is definitely some potential for split flow or some disturbances crossing the south. Split flow is a nice way to get everyone in the game... We know that; so that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Mudslides in California being triggered? Well I don't know about that...its not a pineapple express...but getting some vortmax/shortwaves cutting underneath the ridge can make for some interesting phase potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 1-3 area wide sunday night, decent piece of energy coming through......I am liking it. LOL..what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 1-3 area wide sunday night, decent piece of energy coming through......I am liking it. Mudslide potential in Farefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow the gfs is ugly for friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow the gfs is ugly for friday. Stop worrying about Friday, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow the gfs is ugly for friday. Stop worrying about Friday, guys. Pick a low any low, just shows the potential, nice trend . going to be fun again for a while me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Lol, GFS is Miller B central in the long range...just a parade of them., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Lol, GFS is Miller B central in the long range...just a parade of them., I know. Oh the fruit this could deliver, if it sets up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Lol, GFS is Miller B central in the long range...just a parade of them., The GFS next week is a parade of nickel and dime snows... wow this could be a fun week. That Thurs event has been trending colder too. BTV calling for 1-3" tonight... Then another 1-2" Saturday night... Then another 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning... Then again on Monday night into Tuesday morning... Then this storm on Wednesday has been trending colder on both the GFS and GGEM (don't know or have seen the ECM)... And this is all before we even get near the Feb 2-3 event whatever that may be... 18z GFS is full on weenie daily snows, lol. No less than 4 seperate small events in a 5 day period. Sign me up with orographic enhancement of those weak clippers... nickel and dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The GFS next week is a parade of nickel and dime snows... wow this could be a fun week. That Thurs event has been trending colder too. BTV calling for 1-3" tonight... Then another 1-2" Saturday night... Then another 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning... Then again on Monday night into Tuesday morning... Then this storm on Wednesday has been trending colder on both the GFS and GGEM (don't know or have seen the ECM)... And this is all before we even get near the Feb 2-3 event whatever that may be... 18z GFS is full on weenie daily snows, lol. No less than 4 seperate small events in a 5 day period. Sign me up with orographic enhancement of those weak clippers... nickel and dime. ur 35 degrees and rain on 1/27....at Stowe, VT! anything in the future has to beat that try all you want, this winter has sucked relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 ur 35 degrees and rain on 1/27....at Stowe, VT! anything in the future has to beat that try all you want, this winter has sucked relatively speaking Haha what? Did I miss something in my own post that said it wasn't raining right now or this winter has been awesome? This winter has sucked and you are correct that it is raining right now as the cold front is passing through (tonight's potential light snow comes after the cold front). We have had half the snowfall we did last season so far and are at like 60% of normal. I'm excited like everyone else on here for the potential for upcoming snows. What part of that post made you think I believe this winter hasn't been sucking? lol. This thread is about the future leading into February. But yes, thanks for the current observations. Feel free to post those in the NNE obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Powderfreak is cranky Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Nice to see the gfs and nam printing out a litte measurable across the area sat/sun night combo.....for some reason I have a gut feeling many people wake up to a whitened ground on Monday morning, its a pretty decent piece of energy, maybe a little atl moisture thrown back in as it tries to redevelop out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Would be nice. Hopefully something produces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol, GFS is Miller B central in the long range...just a parade of them., I approve....hoefully some late bloomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Ok folks...,balls to the wall.....squirrels ftw!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Ok folks...,balls to the wall.....squirrels ftw!!! I could have a happy double nickel on the 10th, looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I could have a happy double nickel on the 10th, looks fantastic. 55....what is it about the 5 winters for you and I....1991-92, 2001-01, so far 2011-12. Time to break the curse! Let's hope we're thigh deep on your 55th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 55....what is it about the 5 winters for you and I....1991-92, 2001-01, so far 2011-12. Time to break the curse! Let's hope we're thigh deep on your 55th! Yea right, should have used that analogy. I looked thoroughly at the Euro long range ENS and weeklies today. Is it possible we salvage this winter? Folks posted that the weeklies on average week 3/4 look warm. There are days that are warm way out but there are also times when we are pretty damn cold and stormy. We know it's not a snowpack winter but if things pan out salvage is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 IMO the GFS...I'm pretty certain we're going to see a parade of either hits or near hits. In any case it's about to get way way more interesting. Good times finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Posted this in the nyc forum, but here's the weenie image of the day. Looks like Ray hacked the Canadian ensembles. Some of these have 576+dm ridge cores into British Columbia with blocking over Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSCMCHGTWIDE_12z/f312.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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