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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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the biggest difference with the euro storm is that it actually, for once this season, has support from the GFS/GEM for several runs also.

euro has been a monumental tease when it stands alone this year.

optimistic.

Eh, its 7 days out...no reason this cannot cut either. Its a marginal setup. It has the PNA going for it, but that is about it...there's a slight weakness over Hudson Bay and just east...but its weak.

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That is a change, then......the EURO was looking best...esp with regard to NAO.

They all look good...it's very hard for me to say the euro is much worse...they are all about he same. If anything, euro may offer split flow goodness. Besides models will wax and wane that far out. Big thing that i see, is that they all agree.

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Just bustin ya, It is a decent signal this far out but we shall proceed with caution as it could end up tracking over my head.....

I know, I deserve it. But I can't help but be interested in this despite how far away it is...its just who I am.

the biggest difference with the euro storm is that it actually, for once this season, has support from the GFS/GEM for several runs also.

euro has been a monumental tease when it stands alone this year.

optimistic.

Yes, agreed...which is why I'm confident in a significant storm this far out. I'm much more worried about Pete or even further NW getting crushed while SNE south rains than this storm not happening.

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Eh, its 7 days out...no reason this cannot cut either. Its a marginal setup. It has the PNA going for it, but that is about it...there's a slight weakness over Hudson Bay and just east...but its weak.

oh i agree.

i'm actually just talking about the fact that there could be a significant storm somewhere in the northeast.

there has not been much agreement on that this season, if any.

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Some interesting trends over night via the longer range guidance. West Coast Ridge develops and the zonal flow ends with and big trough developing from the Plains on E. It is notable that the Sub Tropical Jet becomes active as the cold air plunges S from the Plains on E. The la la land GFS even hints of wintry mischief for the northern half of Texas. We will see. But a nice +PNA ridge and -EPO regime does appear in the works. Ridging looks to extend to the N Pole lending to an effective transport of cross Polar flow and strong Polar Vortex develops near the Great Lakes. All that cold in Alaska is flooded with warmth and the ever present vortex that has been present all winter season is finally displaced.

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Pete will arrive in AK and his snow will all melt. He will never be allowed there again

I doubt Pete is worried about snow. when did he leave? missed it.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW. NORTH WIND 15 MPH. WIND CHILLS 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW. NORTH WIND TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ZERO TO 15 BELOW. NORTH WINDTO 15 MPH. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMINGMOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW. NORTH WIND TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.HIGHS 5 TO 10 ABOVE EXCEPT ZERO TO 10 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. NORTH WIND TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS ZERO TO10 ABOVE. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

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The euro ensembles first start out with a massive ridge from the Baja to the North Pole practically.They also have the trough axis overhead, which means more favorable for clippers or redevelopers. However, as the run goes out in time...the trough retros a bit and the axis is west of us. At the same time, heights lower a bit across CA, but big ridge spike remains over NW Canada and into AK. It's actually a bit stronger on this run. The ridge is good because it supplies cold, and lower heights across CA can be good because it may send disturbances across the south...then you have the nrn stream to play with too.

As usual, have to throw out the obligatory "It's the 11-15 day ensembles", but pretty good signals for some potential.

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The euro ensembles first start out with a massive ridge from the Baja to the North Pole practically.They also have the trough axis overhead, which means more favorable for clippers or redevelopers. However, as the run goes out in time...the trough retros a bit and the axis is west of us. At the same time, heights lower a bit across CA, but big ridge spike remains over NW Canada and into AK. It's actually a bit stronger on this run. The ridge is good because it supplies cold, and lower heights across CA can be good because it may send disturbances across the south...then you have the nrn stream to play with too.

As usual, have to throw out the obligatory "It's the 11-15 day ensembles", but pretty good signals for some potential.

Nah, this time no caveats are needed. It's coming this time Scott. Now the question is for how long and how snowy?

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Nah, this time no caveats are needed. It's coming this time Scott. Now the question is for how long and how snowy?

Good question. Talk to the MJO..lol. Even those progs are a pants tent.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Look how they try to move into phase 8...and they have a decent amplitude too. That could help prolong any regime change.

As usual, you can't help that "what can go wrong" feeling...but at the same time, I'm really liking what I see. Maybe there comes a time where you and I have a mixed mess on our hands, but whatever....we'll take anything at this point. Heck I have yet to have a storm greater than 4" here. I suppose it's climo getting me back for cashing in on Cape lows last winter.

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