ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Let's see what the ens show I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:31 PM, ETauntonMA said: Yeah, that's an ugly rain event. Looks like more of a fropa, but rain none the less.....we have to get that cutoff moving along lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 4:32 PM, Dryslot said: We should be able to nail down the threat for sunday once we are inside 24 hrs North trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:36 PM, CT Blizz said: Move on No way.. we have 2 snow events.. one for Saturday one for Monday! Thats what you said right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Models changing every run....but rest assured, whatever the final soloution is will suck for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 anyone notice the NINA keeps strenthening? I think that has a lot to do with fookin' up the PAC especially since they "usually" peak around Christmas/New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Not always the best theories to use but when the NAM which is usually north and west with these things at 84 hours is suppressed relative to its usual tendencies and more resembles the GFS, the NOGAPS is VERY suppressed, and the CRAS is suppressed as well I tend to believe the model that is not north and west, in this case the GFS may very well be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Models changing every run....but rest assured, whatever the final soloution is will suck for most. Wwell, I'm hoping for sunny and dry vs cloudy and rain... but yeah...no consistency, no trends blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:48 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Not always the best theories to use but when the NAM which is usually north and west with these things at 84 hours is suppressed relative to its usual tendencies and more resembles the GFS, the NOGAPS is VERY suppressed, and the CRAS is suppressed as well I tend to believe the model that is not north and west, in this case the GFS may very well be right. you need to use more puncuation...i've read this like 8 times and i can't understand it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:58 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: you need to use more puncuation...i've read this like 8 times and i can't understand it. LOL. What is the CRAS? That's new to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:59 PM, HubbDave said: What is the CRAS? That's new to me Its a really bad model nobody ever uses but those bad models can be useful when you know their typical biases relative to the others. In this case a normally amped and well west/north forecast model looks basically like the NAM and GFS at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 2:51 PM, eekuasepinniW said: lol those graphics crack me up latest run shows the waves a bit better. Harvey Rand Ritter ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Um means go with g f s. toss the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Seems like best post in a while. Taken in acct. model bias. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Models changing every run....but rest assured, whatever the final soloution is will suck for most. I made the same exact comment 2 days ago and got bashed left and right. At least more people are on the same page now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 What in the sam hell is going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 More reason to not support the Euro, it has significantly moved towards the GFS with the idea of modified temps in the 8-10 day period, a few days ago it had the PV into the Great Lakes, the GFS run 3 mornings ago at Day 13 looks exactly like the Euro does today at Day 10. It may be one of those rare weeks for the GFS. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Canadian ensembles actually have slightly better ridging. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 7:06 PM, CT Blizz said: What in the sam hell is going on here? I'm SO lost lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 4:47 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: what a weenie east coast storm at the very end of the GFS run. rain but what a monster. LOL. I want that solution. It would answer the question you have to Ole Man Winter of "Do you have any other ways to screw me?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well lets hope the EC ensembles look a ltitle better. The Canadian does weaken ridging after d10, but try to build it back up again. Lets hope it happens. The building of the ridge once again does have some support, but may also be dependent on placement of tropical forcing and Aleutian low. Both of which will have a big say in this. If tropical forcing tries to move out of phase 7-8 quicker, it may keep the ridge flat. But, there isn't an immediete repsonse to the atmosphere when this happens so if we do crap out into the lousy Nina phases, it usually takes several days at least to see a response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 7:11 PM, weathafella said: I want that solution. It would answer the question you have to Ole Man Winter of "Do you have any other ways to screw me?". That was the storm at the end of February 2010 ... blizzard for New Jersey, rain in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 G f s ensembles look like potential 114 hrs out. A bit se right were we may want them. Can everyone stop cryin about perpetual screw jobs like 8 yr old girls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 7:16 PM, cpick79 said: G f s ensembles look like potential 114 hrs out. A bit se right were we may want them. Can everyone stop cryin about perpetual screw jobs like 8 yr old girls I see Blizz has a protege... though using the GFS... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 7:13 PM, wxwatcher91 said: That was the storm at the end of February 2010 ... blizzard for New Jersey, rain in New England. Still got 14" here, before the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 60s in Brockton. Beautiful pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The GFS, NAM,and GGEM are all on the same page (more or less) with their trend toward moving the plains upper low out/under and then attempting to dive the northern stream into it - rather than leaving the upper low to rot in the northern plains like the Euro. It seems to me we have retrogression going on in the long wave pattern which favors the first three models, even though the Euro is usually then king. On 2/1/2012 at 6:48 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Not always the best theories to use but when the NAM which is usually north and west with these things at 84 hours is suppressed relative to its usual tendencies and more resembles the GFS, the NOGAPS is VERY suppressed, and the CRAS is suppressed as well I tend to believe the model that is not north and west, in this case the GFS may very well be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Some interesting members of the GEFS for Sunday. My guess is the euro ensembles don't change all that much...maybe try to nudge the low east some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 7:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Some interesting members of the GEFS for Sunday. My guess is the euro ensembles don't change all that much...maybe try to nudge the low east some more. Wake me up at 0z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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